The biggest week yet in the Race to London is upon us as the first set of 500-level tournaments are being contested in Beijing and Tokyo this week, with 12 of the top 16 men in the race are in action. Things tightened up this past week as the Asian swing got underway, and this week could see the first big shake-up as the race to qualify for the ATP World Tour Finals heats up.
Race Update
There were no changes in the Race to London among the top 16 players this past week. The most significant result came at the Shenzhen Open, where Tomas Berdych, who currently sits in ninth place, claimed the title, closing the gap on Rafael Nadal for the eighth and final qualification spot to 330 points, meaning the Czech could theoretically jump into a qualification spot this week.
Other than Berdych’s run in Shenzhen, the two events last week, Shenzhen and the Chengdu Open, as David Goffin, Nick Kyrgios, and Dominic Thiem all struggled and failed to add anything significant to their point totals or improve their rankings, as only Thiem would succeed in winning a single match.
This Week’s Action
It’s unlikely that there will be another week with no changes, as most of the top 16 are in action in either Beijing or Tokyo, with 500 points up for grabs for the champions. However, only Tomas Berdych can leap into a qualifying position after this week, as tenth place Marin Cilic remains 800 points back of eighth. That being said, there are three players within Berdych’s striking distance so it’s not just Rafael Nadal who needs to worry.
China Open
Four of the top eight will take to the court at the China Open, led by world number two Andy Murray. The Scot, who is the top seed this week, has already wrapped up his spot in London meaning the focus falls to the next three men. Much of the focus will be only Rafael Nadal, who currently sits in the final qualification spot. However, the Spaniard has a good history at this event, having won it in 2005 and has reached two of the last three finals. By reaching the semifinals, he would be guaranteed to stay in the top eight, regardless of other players’ results.
After a stumble in St. Petersburg, Milos Raonic will look to take a step closer to qualification as he is the third seed this week in Beijing. Raonic currently sits fourth in the Race to London, 1550 points ahead of Berdych, meaning he is safe until the tour returns to the indoor hard courts of Europe. But a big chunk of points this week would go a long way in securing a spot in London. Dominic Thiem, who played the last two weeks in a row, will look to get back to his winning ways in Beijing. The youngest man in the top ten needs a strong performance this week, as he only leads Nadal by five points, meaning if he does not match or better the Spaniard’s result this week, he will drop to at least eighth in the rankings.
Lucas Pouille will look to keep his late charge going in Beijing. The recent Metz champion is currently 1209 points outside of qualification and is seeded sixth in Beijing. Roberto Bautista Agut is nearly 1500 points behind Nadal for the final qualification spot, meaning he desperately needs a big result this week to keep his slim hopes alive.
Rakuten Japan Open Tennis Championship
Six Race to London hopefuls are in action in Tokyo, led by home hero Kei Nishikori. The two-time Tokyo champion is the top seed this week. He currently sits fifth in the Race to London, a solid 1445 points inside the qualification zone. Depending on Raonic’s result in Beijing, Nishikori could jump up to fourth if he reaches at least the semifinals. Gael Monfils will be the second sixth. The sixth place man in the race sits almost 1000 points behind Nishikori, meaning moving up is impossible. In fact, he needs to win his first round match to guarantee a hold on his spot for another week. He only leads eighth place Nadal by 150 points, meaning he needs a could result to keep his buffer between himself and the players chasing.
Berdych is the third seed this week and would move into a qualification position if he won the title and either Nadal or Thiem fail to reach the semifinals in Beijing or Monfils loses in the first round in Tokyo. Anything less than a second title in as many weeks would not be enough. He currently sits 330 points back, meaning a runner-up finish would close the gap even more, but this week all the men he’s chasing are in action so a title may barely be enough to keep pace.
Marin Cilic needs a strong performance to kick start his London bid this week. He is currently 800 points outside of qualification, meaning that he needs a title just to cut the deficit in half. Anything less and he runs the risk of falling further behind. David Goffin will need to turn his form around after disappointing results over the last two weeks. He is just under 1000 points back. Nick Kyrgios also needs a deep run if he wants to keep his outside hope alive.
The ATP World Tour Finals start on November 15th. The players have through the BNP Paribas Masters to reach the top eight, meaning after this week, they will have just four more weeks to clinch a spot.