With Manchester United’s 2-0 defeat to Arsenal, coupled with José Mourinho making it clear that top-four is no longer a priority ahead of his side’s trip to Tottenham Hotspur, it looks as if United are out of the race to finish in the Champions League places.
So does that mean that Liverpool are home and hosed in 4th position? Or could Arsène Wenger’s side creep up the inside and pinch the spot from under their noses?
Well for the Reds, the equation is simple. Win their two remaining games and end up on 76 points and there’s nothing Arsenal can do, as 12 points from the Gunners’ four remaining games leaves them languishing on 75. So the odds are very much in Liverpool’s favour. Win away at West Ham United and then beat already relegated Middlesbrough at Anfield, and they are guaranteed a top four spot.
So what happens if Liverpool slip up in at least of their remaining games? A trip to the London Stadium could well end up as a nightmare for Jürgen Klopp’s team, so what happens should they draw or even lose one of their next two games?
Liverpool in the box seat
On balance, you’d have to say that four points, or perhaps even three, would probably be enough for Liverpool, but they would be relying on Arsenal to drop points. Arsenal have to travel to Southampton and to Stoke City before their rivals next play, and Arsenal’s away record is shambolic, with seven defeats in their last ten away games.
The Gunners' only away wins in 2017 have come at relegation candidates Boro and Swansea City. It’s hardly inconceivable that Arsenal drop at least two points in the next two games, which would leave Liverpool needing only four points to guarantee a finish ahead of them, whilst three would leave it down to goal difference.
Arsenal still in the hunt
Essentially at this point, every point that Arsenal drop is a point that Liverpool can afford to drop. But it’s entirely plausible that Arsenal win their last four games, with trips to Saints and Stoke followed by home games against Sunderland and Everton.
The former are already relegated and the latter are unlikely to do their biggest rivals a favour on the final day with nothing to play for and a poor record away at Arsenal. And if Wenger's men do go and pick up 12 points from their last four games, then Liverpool also need to get the maximum on offer.
At this stage, the ball is firmly in Liverpool’s court. They could well go into Sunday’s game against West Ham knowing that a win would all but guarantee top four, as 73 points would be enough if Arsenal drop more than two points and Manchester United fail to win at White Hart Lane. Nevertheless, if Arsenal are able to keep the pressure on by winning at both St Mary’s and the Bet365 Stadium, then Liverpool will have to win at the London Stadium.
So it’s possible, and entirely conceivable that Arsenal could win all four remaining games and that Liverpool could drop points, a combination which would see the Gunners finish ahead of Klopp’s side and probably finishing 4th place.
But equally, Liverpool’s fate is very much in their own hands, and there are more chances for Arsenal to drop points, especially as they are in arguably worse form and have trickier fixtures remaining.