A lot has happened since Liverpool last played in the Champions League two months ago.
There have been huge triumphs (against Manchester United and Arsenal), tough battles (Manchester City) and the occasional fluffed line (against Leicester City and West Ham). It has been a mixed bag since mid-December and only begs the question of how Liverpool will address this last-16 tie when they are in full Premier League title pursuit mode.
The uncertainty is only heightened when in comes to Bayern Munich – Liverpool’s opponents on Tuesday evening. Bayern appear to be finding their feet again after a rather wobbly start that led to new head coach Niko Kovac fighting to remain at the helm after only a few months in charge. Still, though there is pressure and plenty of questions surrounding Kovac and his team.
Far from perfect victory over Augsburg
Friday evening’s win over lowly Augsburg was another unconvincing performance despite the collection of three more points; a sentiment that seemingly repeats itself time and again this season at Bayern and in truth for the past few seasons. The victory did decrease the gap to Bundesliga leaders Borussia Dortmund, who face Nuremburg on Monday evening, down to two points but this was far from the good “dress rehearsal for Liverpool” that Kicker magazine believed it was.
As with a lot of Bayern’s displays this season, fragility at the back was let off by their ability to find ways of scoring goals. There is little cohesion and unison about this edition of Bayern and it is telling when most of their goals come from pieces of individual play rather than collective efforts. Considering Pep Guardiola only left Bavaria two and a half years ago, the style of his former side has rather strangely altered significantly.
Carlo Ancelotti, Guardiola’s successor at Bayern, was much laxer and laissez-faire in his approach; some say that with Guardiola’s methods engrained and Ancelotti's easy-going nature, the Bayern players should have had the perfect combination for success. But Ancelotti’s laidback manner proved too much of a change and he was gone before his contract had fully run. Jupp Heynckes was once again brought in to see them through to the end of the season.
Kovac is trying to get the best from an aging group
Now with Kovac, who performed wonders with Eintracht Frankfurt and gave them the foundations to have the season that they are currently experiencing, Bayern are still attempting to reboot post-Pep. It is difficult to introduce radical ideas when the squad features a lot of older footballers who are in the final years of their careers and possibly reluctant to change.
Six of the starting XI against Augsburg were over 26 years of age and only highlights that the stance of relying on individuals is somewhat being forced on Kovac by players unwilling to dramatically change their approach at this stage in their careers. Whatever the reason is Bayern are certainly lacking a competent plan.
This was evident against Augsburg where Bayern were a goal down inside 15 seconds thanks to a Leon Goretzka own goal but Kingsley Coman’s scored twice by cutting in from the left with pace and trickery. David Alaba’s angled shot won the game after Augsburg scored another through Dong-Won Ji. Winning is what Bayern do frequently – they have won 15 out of 22 league games this season and remained unbeaten in their Champions League group – but it is often without conviction.
There has been something missing at Bayern of late
They were beaten semi finalists in last season’s competition when they were involved in a rather contentious first leg at home against Real Madrid. It was the second successive season in which Bayern had lost at the hands of Real and on both occasions, there was a sense of what might have been had smaller details been different.
Kovac started a strong line up against Augsburg but too many of the starting XI underwhelmed at the start of a testing week for the club. There were little signs of real progress with or without the ball and although results have improved of late, performances still don’t convince. A team like Bayern should be effectively using space, pressing efficiently and conjuring impressive pieces of combination play, but they are not and that will encourage Liverpool.
It is on either flank where Bayern look something like their best; albeit again relying on individuals or combinations of individuals to make the difference. Coman and Alaba were Bayern’s best players on Friday and singlehandedly pulled the visitor’s back into the game. Against a side like Augsburg, this level of class and player-centricity will be enough but when playing a team with a considered game plan in tandem with the same level of individual quality then it will be much tougher and ultimately less fruitful.
Liverpool indeed have both and although they are fighting tension, emotion and a supremely gifted and well-constructed side to try and achieve their first league title in 29 years, they are one of the most devastating teams to play against. Jurgen Klopp’s side will be wanting to take the game to Bayern, asserting themselves and testing whether Manuel Neuer is trully fully fit following a thumb injury behind a defence that are not the sturdiest.
Liverpool have pace, power and the potential to knock Bayern out, how Kovac’s side deal with that – especially at Anfield – will be interesting to see.
Selection choices will be at forefront of Kovac’s thinking
There will be no Thomas Muller on Tuesday, out through suspension, and James Rodriguez is all but guaranteed a starting place despite being so sluggish against Augsburg. The Colombian is hit and miss at the moment, he can produce a moment of brilliance and yet be so ineffective and be substituted before the hour mark. Whether he is the right partner for Thiago in central midfield is certainly questionable, he will have to work hard and selflessly if he does indeed start.
Robert Lewandowski has 13 league goals to his name this season and has scored in all but one of his Champions League appearances this campaign. He will be a threat to Liverpool’s makeshift central defence but whether he finds himself in enough good positions with the ball to hurt Liverpool is more uncertain.
As hinted at, it is from wide areas that Bayern are the most damaging when in their flow, and on the left in particular. Coman suffered an ankle injury late in the match on Friday but should be fit to start. Losing Coman would have improved Liverpool’s chances dramatically, and yet Liverpool will already feel confident about this tie.
A last-16 tussle with Bayern is always an encounter to relish but there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding this one. There is plenty of thinking for Kovac to do but realistically at the moment he has little choice but to hope that his players turn up for the big occasion. There are certainly more questions than answers at Bayern at the moment; whether they can put in a performance of cohesion, spirit and quality at Anfield is at the forefront.