Burnley are on a barren run in the Premier League; they only scored three goals in the month of December. This should be a walk in the park for Chelsea but Frank Lampard and his team are also in a difficult moment.
Inconsistency
The Blues are suffering a frustrating run of form. Their dynamic attacking game has lost its rhythm, their press has lost its energy and their efficiencies in-front of goal haven’t always been there. Mason Mount, who started the season very strongly, has lost that swagger. Christian Pulisic has fallen out of his purple patch and the defence has looked patchy for some time.
This is a team that has a point to prove. With the transfer ban having now been lifted, Chelsea are free to spend money on players so it is up to their current crop to show their value. A month ago, Lampard didn’t look like he needed any recruits just yet; the team were flying.
These Chelsea players are still very young and they don’t have the beneficiaries of the talismanic Eden Hazard. The brilliant Belgian was usually on hand to bail out his team if the other players couldn’t do it themselves.
This new era needs to be built on maturity and high-standards; look at Manchester City and how they managed to win the league with 98 points after amassing a total of 100 the season before. They won that second title largely without the sensational Kevin De Bruyne who was out with lengthy injuries. Lampard will want his players to grow from exciting prospects to men; he will want them to be able to handle the rough with the smooth.
Attitude
Similarly, Burnley need to have a long, hard look at themselves. It's okay to lose games but it has to be in the right manner. Annihilations against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City were symptomatic of this poor approach and the lethargic New Year’s Day defeat to Aston Villa was particularly worrying. These players are good enough. They’ve proven that over the past few years. But their desire is dwindling.
It’s the same voice in the dressing room, the same tactics, the same aim to avoid relegation and there is no sign of imminent arrivals. This last point is important because it means nobody will be on-hand to apply pressure to their place.
Nobody is advocating sacking the legend that is Sean Dyche; the players are the only people who can dig themselves out of this rut. They dig themselves out by giving blood, sweat and tears to the cause.
Shape
Tactically, Burnley’s shape is usually pretty good. It almost held out Everton and Manchester United; only individual defensive mistakes let them down. The wide midfield players track back into full-back positions, allowing full-backs to shift inside and the back-four becomes a back-six. Jack Cork and Ashley Westwood usually play quite deep and position themselves just in front of the two centre backs. It makes life difficult for the two strikers, though, who have to work with lofted clearances from the back. Ashley Barnes has been notoriously good at getting the ball under some kind of control and winning his team a free-kick; that kind of action alleviates the pressure on the defensive-shape and allows everyone to push up the field.
The Clarets will try to contain as the likes of Jorginho, N’Golo Kante and company are simply too hot to handle for most teams. They will probably let the Chelsea midfielders pass the ball around and will look to hold a deep shape. Jorginho is an excellent passer and if Westwood or Cork tries to press him, the Italian will be able to pick a pass and break through the midfield line. It will be a very difficult afternoon for the two-man midfield. Do they stick or do they twist?
Dyche might opt to use Jeff Hendrick on the right. He scored a stunning volley on his last appearance at Stamford Bridge but the Irishman provides a bit more discipline than Burnley’s other wide players.
Willian, who has been in good form for the Londoners, usually occupies the left-wing slot so Hendrick and Phil Bardsley, or whoever plays, will have to be very careful. The Brazilian scored a clinical goal at Turf Moor earlier in the season and will fancy his chances on home soil.
Holding out hope
So what will envelope is a case of attack versus defence and it is very important that Burnley hold out until half-time. Dyche’s game-plan is reliant on frustrating the opponent and then trying to get a late smash and grab with a set-piece; it has never been pretty but now the greater concern is whether it is working at all.
The problem is that these tactics haven’t work against any of the top-six this season. Six matches. Zero points. Three goals scored. Twenty goals conceded. They are quite damaging statistics. It doesn’t hold out too much hope for the Clarets at Stamford Bridge but Dyche will not change his ways this late in the day.
For Chelsea, the only issue is how quickly they move the ball. Against Southampton it was very slow but Lampard had deployed a 3-4-3 formation in this match and it just didn’t work. The back-three has caught teams off-guard but it isn’t suitable as Chelsea’s main setup, as that Southampton match illustrated. Their attacking play becomes more direct and predictable.
It’s unlikely that the Chelsea boss will look to sway from his usual back-four against Burnley as he will need his attack to be at its most fluid in order to break down the stiff rearguard.
A shock unlikely
It’s tough to see beyond a home victory but Burnley do have the ability to frustrate. They also have very good recent form at Stamford Bridge: the 2-2 draw last season and a remarkable 3-2 success on the opening day of the 2017-18 season. Recent history suggests there is reason to be optimistic for the Lancastrians but recent form does not.