Aston Villa are attempting to solve their striker woes by making a bid to sign joint-top Championship scorer Ollie Watkins.
The Brentford hitman has previous working with Villa boss Dean Smith as he took Watkins to Brentford in 2017 and according to Sky Sports, Watkins is interested in working with Smith again. This gives Villa an immediate edge on the competition for Watkins’ signature before the inevitable bidding war.
While this is bound to excite Villa fans, it has to be asked how the £25 million rated forward will fit into Dean Smith’s squad?
Great expectations
The signing of Watkins to Villa is a sensible one for reasons other than just the connection to Smith.
The main motivation behind the transfer is that Watkins doesn’t need to readjust to the system Villa play in order to fit in. The 4-3-3 championed by Smith has been carried on by his former assistant Thomas Frank, meaning that Watkins would slip in seamlessly into the front three. There are also the obvious comparisons between his style of play and Tammy Abraham’s. Both possess clever movement in the box as well as a lethal finish. The former Villa loanee bagged most of his 26 goals in a Villa shirt playing in the same system, making Watkins the perfect fit to finally replace him.
The striker position has been a problematic one since Abraham left. Villa have spent £32 million on strikers since Abraham returned to Chelsea, a total that has yielded just six league goals. Both Wesley and Mbwana Samatta arrived from Belgium and endured spells of poor form and long stretches without goals. By comparison, Abraham hit 15 goals on his own for Chelsea last season.
Villa have lacked a killer striker all season long, with none of their goals after the restart coming from the strikers. Villa have deployed no less than five strikers in 2020 (Wesley, Samatta, Keinan Davis, Borja Baston and Indiana Vassilev) and between them they scored just three goals, only two of which came in the league. Across the season, just eleven goals in all competitions came from strikers across the season including the now departed Jonathan Kodjia’s Carabao Cup brace against Liverpool.
Watkins adding a clinical finish back into a goal-starved Aston Villa team would surely be enough to pull them further and further away from another relegation battle.
One season wonder?
Watkins had a wonderful season in the Championship last season, however it was the first truly high scoring season he’s had at that level.
The 26 goals he netted last season is more than his tally from his two previous seasons with Brentford combined, only getting ten goals in both the 2017/18 and 2018/19 seasons. The best idea we can get of how Watkins will cope at Premier League level would be to look at Neal Maupay.
Just like Watkins, Maupay had one high scoring season for Brentford (25 goals in 2018/19) and immediately left for the top flight. The Frenchman resisted interest from Villa to sign for Brighton and Hove Albion and for the most part, he flattered to deceive. His goal return was less than half his Championship tally, only scoring ten goals.
However, it has been noted that Watkins is a much more natural Premier League level striker. Maupay is an old-fashioned bruiser of a centre forward, not expected to score buckets of goals in the modern game. To draw a Villa comparison, he is much more like Keinan Davis. However, Watkins is a much more technically gifted striker, able to find space in the defence and finish with ease. In short, he’s the consummate modern forward and perfectly suited to the modern top flight.
High scoring Championship strikers often find it difficult to step up to Premier League level. You only need to look at the likes of Tom Ince, Patrick Bamford and Dwight Gayle to see that. If Watkins did have a difficult first season in the Premier League, he’d be far from one on his own. Any big money signing from the second tier is a gamble, but it’s one Villa have to take.
It can be asked why Villa don’t pursue an established Premier League striker, but these come at a premium. Villa are rumoured to have another budget of around £100 million this season and the biggest outlay will be the striker, but recruits are needed in other areas as well. Dean Smith is rumoured to be after a winger, two centre backs and a right-back as well as the striker, so blowing upwards of Watkins’ £25 million fee would jeopardise the rest of their transfer plans.
In short, while Watkins may be another big-money gamble by Villa, however, Watkins will probably be the best that they can afford. Watkins is also a natural fit for the Premier League and will likely fill the gap left by Tammy Abraham.