Arguably the easiest line in football right now is “Brighton are in desperate need for a striker” - whether it’s people in the pub, people on the TV or people on YouTube videos.
However, is that necessarily true?
The xG issue has been around since Graham Potter’s second game in 2019, where they failed to beat West Ham United. After having 16 shots, just four were on target; a microcosm of things to come.
Brighton has trialled many strikers but always needed reinforcements. Up until now, Glenn Murray has been the only resounding success, scoring 26 Premier League goals for Brighton from just 125 shots. Brighton’s second most prolific striker Neal Maupay has scored the same amount of goals with 6 more games and 103 more shots.
Other forwards such as Jurgen Locadia and Alireza Jahanbaksh have also been used by the Seagulls, and with a combined fee of over £30 million, Brighton would have expected more than a miserly 19 goals in 166 games. The failures of Florin Andone, Aaron Connolly, Deniz Undav, and the lack of goals from Danny Welbeck, have led to a shortage of quality options in that number nine position.
For six out of the 12 matches he has been in charge, De Zerbi has chosen to play an out-and-out centre forward, one of either Danny Welbeck, Evan Fergurson or Deniz Undav. In those games, just two have been won.
However, when he opted to use winger Leandro Trossard in that position, Brighton have three wins in four games, including the perfect result against Chelsea. Leandro Trossard has generally played very differently from a standard De Zerbi striker; his role has been adapted depending on the opposition.
The Southampton game was the only match where Trossard played like a usual De Zerbi centre forward, in terms of whereabouts on the pitch he picked up the ball.
Against the low block of Wolves he was getting on the ball just outside the penalty area, and against Chelsea, he was either on the halfway line or in the Chelsea penalty box.
This shows Trossard's tactical versatility and how much he brings to this team in terms of helping them break down defences.
Previously, at Shakthar Donetsk and Sassuolo, De Zerbi’s strikers picked the ball up around the edge of the final third with the odd dart forward onto the edge of the box in order to score.
This is what has happened when Ferguson, Welbeck or Undav have played in this position for the Seagulls.
Brighton has lacked ruthlessness in front of goal this season. Wingers Solly March and Kaoru Mitoma are brilliant at taking defenders on and getting to the by-line and pulling it back into space, however, neither find themselves at the back post to tap one in.
Both March and Mitoma are De Zerbi's first-choice wingers and he has opted for them in most games. When in the final third, they play in a more centralised position in order to get a goal.
Looking at the top scorers over the past few years in the Premier League, most tend to occupy these sorts of positions. Salah, Sterling and Mane are the most notable and formed phenomenal relationships with their opposite full-back. The ball would often be placed at the back post for a simple tap-in.
However, these “easy” goals have been distinctly lacking from March and Mitoma. Mitoma’s header vs Wolves was the only goal either Brighton winger has scored after getting on the end of a cross from the opposite wing.
This may be something De Zerbi could seek to change instead of going for an out-and-out striker, especially considering the attacking threat of full-backs, Pervis Estupinan and Tariq Lamptey. These two are more than capable of putting plenty of chances for their opposite winger.
This chink in the armour was most notable against Charlton in the Carabao Cup, where so many low crosses found their way to vacant spaces at the back post with nobody to tap them in.
Also, after a combined five goals/assists in four games for Lallana and Trossard in those number 10 or nine positions respectively, a new striker would come in and replace one of these two, who certainly don't deserve to be replaced given their success.
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On the roster
The Albion also has several other striking options in the club which once again poses the question is a striker necessary?
Evan Ferguson has impressed immensely in his 108 minutes of Premier League football this season, scoring two goals in this time. Recruiting another striker would arguably limit his first-team opportunities and slow down his development. His tireless pressing has certainly caught the eye as well as his strength, and his ability to hold up the ball and score with both feet.
Similarly, Danny Welbeck has not looked outstanding, but he clearly has the quality; his pace, size and strength are still a threat to all Premier League defences despite not scoring yet this season.
Whilst maybe not the perfect striker, Welbeck is certainly good enough for the Premier League and still has a couple of years left on his contract. With the premiums currently placed on strikers, Welbeck does not need replacing.
Onto the sombre case of Deniz Undav, 26 goals and 12 assists in the Belgium Pro League last season for another club in Tony Bloom’s football dynasty Union Saint Gilosie; his £7 million transfer has proved very ineffective.
He is simply not a De Zerbi striker and performs better as an 18-yard box player where his only focus is on hitting the target. He just is not good enough on the ball and at linking up the play. Whilst there is no doubting Undav’s ability in front of goal, it is time for both parties to cut their losses and for Undav to move on.
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What to do
Despite an impressive record without a natural number nine, the quality of Welbeck, and the promise of Ferguson, Brighton are still in need of a proper striker.
In De Zerbi’s final season at Shakhtar Donetsk, Fernando scored five goals in seven games, showing the value of a number nine in De Zerbi’s system. That is too much pressure for a young Evan Ferguson who despite his early signs of promise, cannot guarantee goals at his young age and unfortunately is not something Danny Welbeck is consistently capable of.
After the sales of Ben White, Marc Cucurella and Yves Bissouma earned the club £130 million, Brighton is definitely able to spend big on a new centre forward. Ferguson has no guarantees but does mean Brighton does not need to spend on a young striker, and should rather guarantee goals with an established striker.
I propose bringing in one of:
Ramos is capable of being the link between midfield and attack that De Zerbi needs. Whilst he doesn’t do it every week, when called upon by his team he is capable of doing so.
He also showed the world his instincts in front of goal after his hat trick in the Qatar World Cup in December. Benfica currently plays in a 4-2-3-1 similar to the way Brighton does, meaning Ramos will fit seamlessly into De Zerbi's side.
The only downside about this deal is the cost, with Transfermarkt placing his value at 30 million euros. However, given his importance to the Portuguese league leaders, I would expect this deal to be closer to the region of 50 million.
Brighton also needs to bring in a centre-back with Lewis Dunk, an injury-prone Adam Webster and an on-loan Levi Colwill being Brighton's only centre-backs. This should be their main priority; funds going elsewhere means this deal may be a step too far for the team on the south coast.
Dia possesses lots of quality and would certainly be cheaper than Ramos. However, there is a reason for that. De Zerbi loves tall strikers, such as Giacomo Raspadori and Fernando, and whilst Dia is by no means short at 5ft 11, he will not be able to compete in the air against other centre-backs in the Premier League - emphasised by his 41% success rate in aerial duels.
Dia is fabulous at linking up the play, as shown in his statistics after playing against Milan; completing 20 passes with a success rate of 95%. He is also a very clinical goalscorer, having scored six goals from an xG of 3.57 - he is certainly capable of overturning Brighton’s fortunes in front of goal. With a market value of 12 million euros, he could prove to be a very positive signing.
Roberto Firmino:
A much higher profile and certainly a step away from their current transfer strategy (as well as possibly a tad sensational), Firmino’s flair and invention will provide even more creativity to this Brighton side. He boasts of being Premier League proved and an obvious goal threat.
His ability to link between attack and midfield is no secret to anyone. This would be a risk considering his wages however the signing of Cody Gakpo proves him to be out of favour and possibly available at a cut price.
Torem Moffi:
Moffi has 10 goals in Ligue 1 this year placing him above Lionel Messi, Jonathan David and Wissam Ben Yedder in the leagues goal scoring charts; and only behind Kylian Mbappe and Neymar, he could be an unreal signing.
His goals have come from an xG of 6.55 which should go a long way in solving the xG problems Brighton has seen in recent times. However, with just 0.6 key passes per game and having created no big chances this season, this deal may not be as good as it seems.
Because of his importance for Lorient and his goal-scoring threat, it could take a bid in the region of £30 million to prize him away.
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If it were me
Brighton is in more need of a centre-back than anything else right now. Therefore, I think more energy should be spent on buying Levi Colwill on a permanent, ruling out Firmino and Ramos as they are out of the price range.
Because De Zerbi has not used a striker on several occasions this season and the emergence of Ferguson means a massive buy could be a waste of money.
In order to reduce the risk of another striking flop I would look to bring in Boulaye Dia for around £20 million and then look to use the funds of their sales to bring in Levi Colwill.