Liverpool’s defence this season, as it has in many a previous campaign, has been a real mixed bag to say the least.
At 30 goals conceded from 25 games (1.2 goals per game), Liverpool are the 8th best defence in the Premier League, and are on track to concede 46 goals this season.
Now that number by itself is meaningless and even taken compared to some of Liverpool’s previous seasons, it doesn’t imply much. It’s less than Liverpool conceded in 2013-14 when they finished 2nd, but it’s significantly more than the previous occasion where Liverpool challenged for the title in 2008-9 (Liverpool have already conceded more than they did in that season – 27).
To provide more immediate context, it would be their 7th worst total in the 25 years since the Premier League began, but it would still be an improvement on the last three years, where Liverpool have conceded 50, 48 and 50 again.
The numbers then, are not great, but could still be a slight increase on previous years. Yet again, their defence has been highlighted as their biggest weakness this season.
But they have appeared much when playing Joel Matip and Dejan Lovren together. But the question is whether starting the pair would offer Liverpool some defensive solidity and consistency between now and the summer, when you would imagine a new centre-back will be brought in to replace Lovren.
The simple answer to that question will be yes, but with caveats. The obvious answer is that playing your two best defenders will produce the best results and while many fans would pinpoint Lovren's downfalls, given that the other options are Ragnar Klavan, Lucas Leiva and Joe Gomez, it seems clear that Lovren has to be considered the best starting option alongside Matip.
Lovren and Matip - with and without
Playing your two best defenders doesn’t, of course, guarantee defensive solidity. So let’s compare the numbers.
Matip and Lovren have played ten games together, keeping three clean sheets and conceding nine goals. So if Liverpool had started the two together every game this season, that tally would be down to 22/23 goals conceded so far.
Assuming they’d played all 38 games together, Liverpool would have conceded 34 goals at the current rate. That would be the least conceded since Liverpool’s title challenge under Rafa Benitez in 08-09.
In layman’s terms, not being able to play Lovren and Matip together all season has already cost Liverpool approximately seven or eight goals this season, and could end up costing more.
What will be even more frustrating for Liverpool fans is that those goals have come in crucial games. Four against Bournemouth, three against Swansea City, and two against Hull City and Burnley. All of Liverpool’s league defeats this season have come about through poor defending when Lovren and Matip weren’t partnered together.
Highlighting that a lack of defensive stability has cost Liverpool this season isn’t, nevertheless, the same as suggesting that Lovren and Matip together would offer it moving forwards. However, what it does do is underline that defensive collapses happen far less frequently when the two are playing together.
In the ten games the two have started together, Liverpool have conceded more than one goal only twice, and conceded one goal or less in the four games that have been faced against Chelsea (twice), Tottenham and Manchester United.
The two cases where Liverpool did concede twice with those two on the field together came against Crystal Palace, where Lovren had a nightmare defensively, and against West Ham, where both central defenders were carrying knocks. Lovren had to come off at half-time and it was Matip’s last start before he came back for the 1-1 draw with Chelsea on 31 January.
One element that has been understated in this debate is arguably the key word: “partnership”. Chopping and changing the centre-back positions benefits nobody. Look at Tottenham, where Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld are a phenomenal partnership, rather than just two excellent defenders playing next to each other.
Part of having a solid defensive back-line is building a relationship with your partner and the longer that Matip and Lovren have together the more stable Liverpool's defence is going to look.
Moreover, it’s clear that Lovren and Matip have a good relationship off-the-field, which is important for developing one on-the-field.
Other factors that hold Liverpool back
Nevertheless, it’s important to note that at the moment, there is a ceiling as to how stable Liverpool can be defensively this season.
For starters, although Lovren always looks like a better defender with someone impressive next to him (he excels when playing with Mamadou Sakho or Matip, but has struggled next to Lucas or Martin Skrtel), he nevertheless is too error-prone to ever be a top centre-back.
Whilst conceding less than a goal a game would be an improvement on where Liverpool are at the moment, it still isn’t as impressive as what Chelsea, Tottenham or United are currently doing defensively.
Moreover, both the personnel in place around Lovren and Matip, and the system that Jürgen Klopp adopts, means that Liverpool are always going to be somewhat leaky defensively. James Milner has done a decent job at left-back, but he is nothing more than a stop-gap there, especially defensively, where he has been caught out on numerous occasions this season.
And behind Lovren and Matip is an even bigger problem as Simon Mignolet has never managed to go more than half a dozen games in his Liverpool career without costing his team a goal through errors.
Loris Karius has looked a solid companion to Lovren and Matip, conceding just six goals in the seven games that the three have started together, but hasn’t started a league game since his high-profile error at Anfield in the underwhelming draw with West Ham.
Liverpool’s high-pressing and possession game also fundamentally undermines their defensive set-up. Their style is much more aggressive than that played by Spurs or Chelsea, as the Reds commit more men forward and use defence as a form of attack.
Klopp is prepared to gamble being caught on the break for the opportunity to win the ball back in the opposition third, as Liverpool did against Tottenham for the second goal in their 2-0 win at the weekend.
This puts more pressure on the central defenders, especially with fast players counter-attacking, as none of Liverpool’s central defenders are blessed with natural pace.
It doesn’t help that Jordan Henderson, who has been a revelation in the defensive midfield role, is frequently isolated trying to break up counter-attacks, which is not the most natural element of his game.
So in the current system that Liverpool play, with the personnel at their disposal, there will always be a ceiling to how well they can play defensively, and they will not be able to match the best three defensive teams in the league: Spurs, Chelsea and United.
However, that does not mean that they cannot be more defensively stable than we have seen at times this season, and certainly the club’s best chance of building some defensive consistency lies in getting Dejan Lovren fit again and playing regularly alongside Matip until the end of the season.