As the year’s first major speeds towards us, the WTA is in slightly odd shape. The runaway world number one, the woman who got within two wins of a Grand Slam in 2015 hasn’t played since her US Open semifinal loss, and withdrew from her opening event due to injury concerns last week. Serena Williams’ absence has created what feels like something of a power vacuum at the top of the WTA.
In fact, the top four ranked female players have all withdrawn from an event already this year, raising serious doubts about almost all of the main contenders for this year’s Australian Open.
Here’s a look at some of the leading women with their eyes on the title.
Serena Williams
Serena seemed almost unstoppable for much of 2015, and amassed a highly impressive win-loss record of 53-6. Having taken the final part of the season off after falling so close to completing the first Grand Slam on either tour since 1988, the question of her current form is nevertheless an interesting one. Her withdrawal from her warmup event, the Hopman Cup, only adds to the uncertainty. Has she fully recovered from her disappointment in New York? We’ll only know once we see her in action again, this time free of what seemed to overwhelming pressure that had been building on her all year.
Often in the past Serena has, rather oddly, seemed more vulnerable in the early rounds of a major than later on in the fortnight. It’s almost as though she needs the early rounds to build up her confidence, but becomes almost unstoppable once she’s built up a head of steam.
Despite the uncertainty, she remains the obvious favourite, and if she can negotiate her first two or three matches smoothly and play herself into form, it’s once again tough to see who’s going to stop her.
Simona Halep
The Romanian world number two is a rather unusual player in that she regularly collects smaller titles, but never quite wins big at the highest level. Last year, Halep reached the last four in Melbourne, and the semifinals in New York, but won just one match in total in the summer majors at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, underlining her inconsistency in the biggest events.
Halep has been on top form in other tournaments, winning two Premier 5 events in 2015, as well as three other high-level finals. She clearly has the ability to win the biggest tournaments, but until she is regularly going deep in the majors, question marks will remain over her ability to win them.
Petra Kvitova
At times unbeatable, at times terrible, Petra Kvitova remains one of the WTA's biggest mysteries. Since arriving in Melbourne four years ago with a chance to take the top ranking, Kvitova has never quite looked capable of reaching the top of the rankings again.
When she puts together a good run though, she is virtually unplayable, as her two Wimbledon titles attest. Rather like Stan Wawrinka on the ATP these days, Kvitova's inconsistency is such that it's tricky to pick her as the winner of an event, but when she does win big, no-one's surprised at her level of tennis.
Victoria Azarenka
Azarenka’s been on the comeback trail for what feels like decades. A former world number one, and two-time winner in Melbourne, Azarenka will be eager to take advantage of the question marks surrounding the WTA elite.
After having had horrendous misfortune with draws through 2015, Azarenka's luck finally broke last week, with second-round opponent Halep withdrawing before the match. The Belorussian took full advantage, storming through the rest of the draw to take her first title for two and a half years, with a one-sided defeat of Angelique Kerber in the final.
Her title moved her back inside the top sixteen - a huge boost ahead of the Australian Open seedings, and installed her with some bookmakers as the second favourite for the title.
Her fellow contenders will be keeping a keen eye on where she lands in the draw - Azarenka is a highly dangerous opponent for any player.
Maria Sharapova
Sharapova is another player with injury concerns, having missed almost the entire 2015 season post Wimbledon. Her appearance at the WTA Finals was a successful one, qualifying from her group in first place, before going down to Kvitova in the semifinals. However, in her first tournament of 2016 she again withdrew before playing a match, raising concerns over her fitness before a tournament where she was the runner up in 2015.
Vulnerability opens the door for Azarenka
Despite Serena's dominance, and deserved favourite tag, it seems like the winner of the Australian Open on the women's side this year will be the player who is most able to turn around difficult recent times. Azarenka will be licking her lips at the vulnerability at the top of the WTA, and it should surprise no one should she reclaim her place in the elite with a deep run in Melbourne.