Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber will battle it out for the first major title of 2016 on Saturday morning, with Williams heavy favourite to join Steffi Graf on an Open Era record of 22 Grand Slam titles (which would be just two behind Margaret Court's all-time record of 24). Whilst this will be the American's 26th major final, her 7th Australian Open final, for Kerber, this will be her first and the German will have to play the tennis of her life if she is going to have any chance of stopping arguably the greatest women's tennis player of all time.
Williams' Route To The Final
Round One: Camila Giorgi 6-4, 7-5
Round Two: Su-Wei Hsieh 6-1, 6-2
Round Three: Daria Kasatkina 6-1, 6-1
Round Four: Margarita Gasparyan 6-2, 6-1
Quarter-Finals: Maria Sharapova (5) 6-4, 6-1
Semi-Finals: Agnieszka Radwanska (4) 6-0, 6-4
Despite entering the tournament as defending champion and the runaway world no.1, Williams has almost ghosted her way through the draw, quietly and efficiently going about her business. Whilst top seeds were tumbling left, right and centre, the likes of Johanna Konta, Shuai Zhang and Dasha Gavrilova going on fairytale runs and Victoria Azarenka, many people's tip for the title, returning to what seemingly was her best, Williams has not grabbed the headlines and let others take the limelight in the story of the women's draw so far.
And yet, as has been the case on so many occasions before, Serena herself looks as if she will end up the main protagonist, as this particular book draws to its conclusion. "When I'm at my best, it's difficult to beat me." Williams has most certainly shown that. She hasn't dropped a set and her toughest encounter, in terms of games lost anyway, was her opening match against Camila Giorgi, before Su-Wei Hsieh and Russian youngsters Daria Kasatkina and Margarita Gasparyan were duly dispatched in the next three rounds ; for the loss of just eight games.
Her first real test, as the draw was made on the eve of the tournament beginning, was set to be against Maria Sharapova in the quarter-finals, and a repeat of last year's final was exactly what came to fruition. However, Sharapova again had no answer, as her winless streak against the 21-time major champ extended to 18 matches and now 12 years. Aga Radwanska, full of confidence and momentum after four titles in the past five months, which included the WTA Finals and her first tournament of the year in Shenzhen, was the final hurdle for Williams to clear and she did just that, handing the Pole her first defeat in 2016.
Kerber's Route To The Final
Round One: Misaki Doi 6-7, 7-6, 6-3
Round Two: Alexandra Dulgheru 6-2, 6-4
Round Three: Madison Brengle 6-1, 6-3
Round Four: Annika Beck 6-4, 6-0
Quarter-Finals: Victoria Azarenka (14) 6-3, 7-5
Semi-Finals: Johanna Konta 7-5, 6-2
Heading into the tournament of the back of a run to the final of the Brisbane International (both in the singles and doubles), Kerber, seeded 7th, was in high spirits that this could finally be her chance to put herself amongst the elite of the women's game. A solid top-10 player, but despite semi-final appearances at both Wimbledon in 2012 and the US Open in 2011, never quite having the game good enough to really establish herself and be consistently amongst those threatening for the Grand Slam titles.
The tale of her story could very well have been brought to an abrupt end, as she needed to save a match point in coming from a set down to defeat Japan's Misaki Doi in round one. Things did become much more simpler though as she ploughed her way through the draw, as Alexandra Dulgheru, Madison Brengle and fellow countrywoman Annika Beck were all defeated in straight sets, meaning for the first time in her career, Kerber was a last-eight participant in Melbourne.
Based on her ranking, this was as far as she should have gone. Many were predicting her to face the winner of a blockbuster last-16 clash between two-time champion Azarenka or third seed Garbiñe Muguruza (although Muguruza's surprise exit the round before stopped that from happening). Azarenka did turn out to be Kerber's quarter-final opponent, in a repeat of the Brisbane final of a couple of weeks earlier. The Belarusian, lower in the rankings, was the favourite, yet Kerber got her revenge, beating Azarenka for the first time in seven attempts. Britain's Konta had made a breakout run to the semis, but Kerber was ruthless, and booked her spot in her first major final.
Head-To-Head
2007 US Open (Round One): Williams bt Kerber 6-3, 7-5
2012 Cincinnati Masters (Quarter-Finals): Kerber bt Williams 6-4, 6-4
2012 WTA Finals (Round Robin): Williams bt Kerber 6-4, 6-1
2013 WTA Finals (Round Robin): Williams bt Kerber 6-3, 6-1
2014 Miami Masters (Quarter-Finals): Williams bt Kerber 6-2, 6-2
2014 Stanford (Final): Williams bt Kerber 7-6, 6-3
Williams and Kerber have met on six previous occasions, with the American leading the duo's head-to-head 5-1. Their last meeting was in the 2014 Stanford final (their only previous final against each other) which Williams won in straight sets; all six matches between them have been won in straight sets. Kerber's only victory came in the Cincinnati Masters quarter-finals in 2012, whilst their only Grand Slam encounter came in 2007, when Williams beat the then 19-year old Kerber in the first round.
Tactics
If Kerber is to have any chance of beating Williams, she's got to stick with what she knows best: being aggressive. The German is one of few who has got the power and hustle to knock Williams off balance, and although it's a risky strategy, the reward can be hugely beneficial. Being aggressive of course brings it's fair share of winners (Williams with 164 in the tournament, 147 for Kerber), but also more unforced errors (Williams 99, Kerber 115). Kerber cannot afford to try and be clever and do things which she isn't used to doing, otherwise the world no.1 will quickly walk to the title.
The serve, as always, will be key. Kerber is bound to be nervous in her first major final, so getting on the board straight away will calm those jitters; a break early doors for Williams could signal a downward spiral which could get uncontrollable. First serve percentages are almost identical (Williams 61%, Kerber 62%), but Williams has won 84% of first serve points, compared to just 67% for Kerber, who has won 57% of second serve points. Breaking the Williams serve is never easy, but Kerber has got to take her chances on second serves, although even then, Williams has won 60% of those points during the tournament.
Kerber, who will move up to world no.4 in the next WTA rankings (no.2 if she wins the title), will also probably need a little bit of luck on her side, as does anyone when trying to work out how to tackle Williams. Germany's no.1 does have a bit of history on her side however. For the third consecutive year, a women's finalist has had to save a match point on route to the championship match: Li Na, who went on to win the title, in 2014 (3rd round - Lucie Safarova), Sharapova in 2015 (2nd round - Alexandra Panova) and now Kerber this year (1st round - Doi). Kerber will be hoping to follow in Li's footsteps and not Sharapova's.
Williams on Kerber: "You can't underestimate her. She's beaten me before & she's been very consistent this year." She continued, "she's proven she wants to take her game to the next level."
Kerber on Williams: "I am really looking forward to playing Serena in the final." Kerber passionately said, "I have nothing to lose. It's a really special moment for me to reach the finals for the first time."