The penultimate race weekend of the Women’s Alpine Skiing World Cup will take place in Lenzerheide, Switzerland next weekend. The weekend features the penultimate super-G race on Saturday and the last alpine combined race on Sunday.
Lara Gut is closing on the overall World Cup title as Lindsey Vonn injured her knee and is aside for the rest of the season. Gut’s closest rival Viktoria Rebensburg is 263 points behind; a big gap to catch with six races to go, or rather five that those two will start.
Gut aiming to catch Vonn in super-G
The super-G World Cup leader Lindsey Vonn crashed in the previous super-G race of Soldeu and suffered fractures in her left knee, forcing her to end the season.
Vonn’s lead to second-placed Lara Gut being 64 points with two races remaining means Vonn is very unlikely to remain on the top of the standings until the end of the season. With a sixth and a seventh place from the remaining two races, Gut would surpass Vonn in the super-G standings, or with a second place in a single race. With routine performances in the last two races, Gut seems likely to finish the season ahead of Vonn.
The closest rival to Gut is Tina Weirather, 70 points behind. Weirather is already in a position where catching Vonn from 134 points ahead isn’t guaranteed. In Lenzerheide she needs a seventh place and in that scenario she would need to win the final super-G in St. Moritz. And if Gut won the super-G of Lenzerheide, Weirather would need a second place to retain a slim title chance for the final race.
Three more skiers still hold a mathematical title chance in super-G, Cornelia Hütter, Viktoria Rebensburg, and Federica Brignone. However, they would need to win both of the remaining two races, and even then fifth and sixth places would be enough for Gut.
The super-G takes place on Saturday. The race starts at 10:00 am local time (4:00 am Eastern time).
Three contenders within two points in combined
The alpine combined crystal globe will get decided in Lenzerheide as there is no combined race at the World Cup Finals in St. Moritz. Predicting the race is hard as the previous two combined races of the season were different; in Val d’Isère the speed leg was downhill and in Soldeu it was super-G on a shortened course due to weather conditions whereas in Lenzerheide it’s a full-length super-G.
Three skiers are at 100 points on the top of the alpine combined standings; Marie-Michèle Gagnon, Lara Gut, and injured Lindsey Vonn. Just two points behind is Wendy Holdener. In fifth place, 27 points from the leaders is Michaela Kirchgasser who suffered a cartilage contusion when she crashed in the giant slalom of Jasná.
Lara Gut won the combined race of Val d’Isère but this time it will be harder for her to build gap to technical specialists in the speed leg as it is super-G. The other winner of the season, Marie-Michèle Gagnon, on the other hand, won the combined of Soldeu where the speed leg was a shortened super-G, meaning the speed specialists were unable to build a lot of gap before slalom.
The format of super-G and slalom slightly favors technical specialists like Gagnon, Holdener, and Kirchgasser. The only previous combined win of Gagnon was from a combined of super-G and slalom. Still, most women’s combined races of last seasons have been won by speed specialists, no matter if the speed leg was downhill or super-G. In that sense, Lara Gut would seem like the title favorite. However, she failed to finish the slalom leg in Soldeu; in Lenzerheide she can’t afford that. Also, weather conditions may favor the technical specialists; as the top 30 of the super-G leg will start in reverse order, the best super-G skiers may have to deal with a badly deteriorated course.
As there have been only two combined races this season before Lenzerheide, anything is still possible in the combined standings. The top 10 is inside 53 points; a gap not impossible to catch if the points leaders miss the top four.
The alpine combined takes place on Sunday. The super-G leg starts at 10:00 am local time (5:00 am Eastern time), the slalom leg starts at 1:00 pm local time (8:00 am Eastern time).