Almost always, the most contentious and polarizing conversation being had during draft season is "Who is the best quarterback in the class?" This draft season, the stage was set early with three names garnering the most attention throughout the collegiate preseason. As a redshirt freshman, all Jameis Winston did was win the Heisman and National Championship -- no small feat for a student athlete at any experience level. While his 2014 campaign didn’t quite live to expectations on the field (and to some degree off of it), Winston still railed off 13 straight wins before falling to Mariota’s Oregon Ducks. Speaking of Mariota -- the reigning Heisman champ -- he happened to lead his team all the way to the first ever College Football Playoff National Championship game. On the way there, he compiled 57 total touchdowns to just four turnovers. The black sheep of this comparison is Brett Hundley, whose up and down year will leave him with something to prove throughout the draft process. Hundley, who has nary a Heisman to his name, still managed to complete nearly 70 percent of his passes, resulting in 22 scores through the air.
All three possess traits that fit the prototype of a contemporary passer, and each has his own distinguishing strengths and weaknesses. Each player will have two games evaluated from this past season (from the archives of draft breakdown.com) of college football and have his traits evaluated according to a predetermined backdrop of assessment categories: arm talent, accuracy, mobility, and decision making.
Tale of the Tape
Brett Hundley, University of California, Los Angeles
6’3” - 227 lbs.
Chosen opponents:
vs. Virginia 20/32 242 yds. 60.6% 0 td. 0 int.
vs. Utah 16/21 269 yds. 76.2% 2 td. 1 int.
-For Hundley, conference newcomer Utah and cross-country opponent Virginia provided two NFL caliber pass-rushing specialists. Seeing how Hundley handles Nate Orchard of Utah and Eli Harold of Virginia will help gauge how he handles what is to come in the NFL.
Marcus Mariota, University of Oregon
6’4” - 219 lbs.
Chosen opponents:
vs. UCLA - 17/27 210 yds. 63% 2 td. 0 int.
vs. Washington - 24/33 336 yds. 72.7% 2 td. 0 int.
-The two games selected for Mariota represent the two top-rated defenses from the PAC-12. While UCLA and Washington are inundated with NFL talent, they present a familiar divisional opponent not dissimilar to divisional match-ups in the NFL.
Jameis Winston, Florida State University
6’4” - 230 lbs.
Chosen opponents:
vs. Louisville 25/48 401 yds. 52.1% 3 td. 3 int.
vs. Florida 12/24 125 yds. 50% 2 td. 4 int.
-Winston had less of a cake walk many believe an ACC schedule provides. Both Louisville and SEC power-program Florida represent two of the top 15 NCAA defenses this year. Like the opponents listed for Hundley and Mariota, both teams will have their rosters poached by the major league this spring.
Arm Strength and Velocity
Part of the foundational elements of a starter-level quarterback in the NFL is a functional arm. While it isn’t essential to have an especially strong arm to be successfully in the NFL, it is a trait that can be measured to determine a player’s floor. Arm strength for quarterbacks isn’t dissimilar to overall strength for lineman or speed for receivers; it creates a tangible representation of what a player can do in the NFL. While none of the three participants lack the prerequisite level of arm strength, Winston very narrowly out-gunned Hundley in this comparison.
Utilizing his pitching acumen, Winston is able to muster plenty of velocity in the intermediate game as well as drive in his deep ball. In the middle of the third quarter against Louisville, Winston unleashed a near fifty-yard bomb with confidence. Even more telling of Winston’s arm and accuracy on the move was his early fourth-quarter touchdown between three Louisville defenders to Erman Lane. What won Winston this matchup was his ability to maintain velocity off platform. Often, Winston found himself in muddy pockets and was forced to fade off his back foot while throwing -- a common circumstance in the NFL. Unfortunately, far too often, Winston is overly reliant on his arm and prone to making bad decisions (more on that later).
Hundley follows Winston closely when it comes to total arm strength. While he is a capable passer to the far hashes, Hundley’s arm shines on the deep ball. It took only one pass play for Hundley to unleash a 40-yard strike to Eldridge Massington early on vs. Virginia. On seam and sideline throws, Hundley is able to generatle ample velocity and drive before defensive backs can react. Perhaps Hundley’s biggest strength is that he is able to deliver the ball with relative ease, and he almost never sacrifices accuracy for velocity or distance.
While not in the class of Winston or Hundley in overall arm strength, Mariota does not -- by any means -- possess a weak arm. Against UCLA, two of Mariota’s most impressive throws came in the late second and third quarters, respectively, as he attacked the sidelines vertically. Of the two games evaluated for Mariota, no throw stood out more than a 27-yard completion to Darren Carrington in which Mariota flung the ball to the near sideline with velocity and precision; it was the type of throw that bookends an NFL resume. Still, Mariota very rarely challenges the defense deep in the same manner that Winston or Hundley do.
1st: Jameis Winston, 2nd: Brett Hundley, 3rd: Marcus Mariota
Accuracy and Ball Placement
Perhaps the most essential part of next-level passing talent is accuracy and ball placement. Terms like “throwing a receiver open” and “putting it in a place only the receiver can get it” are used most often with the best quarterbacks in the NFL. A savvy passer can use these traits to overcome less than ideal arm strength or athletic ability. Like arm strength, this trait is a two-horse race. Both Winston and Mariota have fundamentally good accuracy and ball placement, but both stand out in different ways.
Functionally, there is little wrong with Mariota’s accuracy and ball placement. While the offensive play design and sequencing is second to none in college football, he is sometimes tasked on making tight window throws -- something that is readily apparent in the Washington game. In fact, the Washington game turned out to be a tour de force for Mariota’s ability to deliver the ball with exacting precision. Along with the Carrington completion detailed in the above section, Mariota fires a lethal 20-yard cruise missile over two defenders for a late third-quarter touchdown to Dwayne Stanford. If there is one area in which Mariota’s accuracy falters, it would have to do with keeping his passes down. On some occasions, Mariota’s passes stifled yards-after-catch gains because a receiver had to reach to collect a pass that should have been lower.
Winston’s accuracy and ball placement is a double-edged sword. Because he is so willing to take chances with the ball, he is able to flash some incredible throws into coverage (like the Lane touchdown covered in the above section). Throws into coverage aren’t always advised in the NFL, but they are sometimes necessary. In fact, two of the Giants’ Super Bowls are owed to Eli Manning's throwing into tight coverage. One of Winston’s strengths comes when he is utilizing his receivers' play making abilities, which shines in the red zone. Late in the third quarter against Louisville, Winston faded to his left and uncorked a perfectly-placed ball to Nick O’Leary for a supposed touchdown. Even though the play was called back, it highlighted why Winston’s ball placement projects so well toward the NFL. Still, Winston’s accuracy can be scattershot as he often tries to manufacture angles that do not exist, resulting in costly turnovers.
Ironically, the player with the highest season completion percentage comes in last in the accuracy comparison. This isn’t to say that Hundley is an inaccurate passer, but he just showed less instances of NFL-caliber ball placement. While he shined targeting the sidelines, Hundley rarely challenged the tighter windows in the middle of the field. Still, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes during the year is no small feat. Very rarely did Hundley make bad or untimely throws, instead taking what the defense gave him, which is echoed by his throwing of five interceptions on the year.
1st: Marcus Mariota, 2nd: Jameis Winston, 3rd: Brett Hundley
Movement and Mobility
There is an expectation in the modern NFL landscape that quarterbacks must be able to create with their athleticism as well as their arm. An even more essential aspect of mobility is a quarterback’s ability to naturally navigate the pocket. After all, for the highest-caliber passers, their production primarily comes from within the confines of their tackles. Despite not being the same type of run threat at Hundley or Mariota, Winston’s inherent ability to navigate the pocket and elude rushers gives him the edge in this category.
Even in the relatively small sample size of two games, Winston showed rare fortitude in the face of pressure. Whether rolling under a Dante Fowler A-gap blitz or keeping the ball on an option play for a big gain against Louisville, Winston possesses a fine-tuned awareness of his surroundings. Although the offense rarely intentionally rolled the pocket, Winston was able to improvise and accurately throw on the move as the flow of the play permitted. As with Ben Roethlisberger, the play is rarely over when a defender gets his arms on Winston.
Mariota is known for his athleticism, and Oregon's offense facilitates that. With the luxury of moving pockets and quick hitting routes, Mariota rarely hangs in a traditional pocket very long. In the few times he was asked to survey the field, he showed the ability to be patient and complete a pass. Mariota's biggest movement attribute is when he is rolling, left or right, and hitting his receivers outside the hashes. He is incredibly adept at squaring his shoulders and delivering and on-target pass, which is essential in many offenses in the NFL. As a run threat, Mariota displays ample straight line speed and the ability to overtake the edge against linebackers. He is not particularly agile; nor will he threaten defensive backs with his size, but he is as functional a runner that coaches can ask for at the position.
One thing that can always make the evaluation process difficult is factoring how external factors can make a player look good or bad. In this case, Hundley played what can best be described as a porous offensive line. Hundley was regularly sacked at the top of his drop form behind or overwhelmed with rushers running free through the line. That said, Hundley rarely did himself favors by correctly diagnosing the defense before the snap, and he did not possess a natural pocket feel needed to anticipate compromises along the line. Where Hundley’s mobility truly stands out is as a runner, where he shows the type of vision, power, and elusiveness of a running back. On designed run plays, Hundley is sincere threat to anyone attempting to being him down.
1st: Jameis Winston, 2nd: Marcus Mariota, 3rd: Brett Hundley
Decision Making
Intangibles are a tough element to measure, especially as a trait. In their most fundamental form, intangibles are decision-based. Many people consider clutch quarterbacks as those who make the right decisions at the right times. Ideally, it is best to have a quarterback who can make the right decisions intrinsically, making his overall decision-making process integrated to his athletic DNA.
As Mariota’s staggering touchdown-to-turnover ratio suggests, he is already a pro at playing keep-away with the defense, something NFL teams covet. Of the two games evaluated for Mariota, he put the ball on the ground twice and was nearly picked off an equal amount. Considering the tempo of the offense, it is tough to put too much fault on him. Mariota simply is not prone to giving the opposite team very many chances to get its hands on the ball. With that said, Mariota will likely have to be a bit more liberal with his decisions in the NFL. His Oregon offense not only did a great job structuring play calls and keeping college defenses off balance, but it also took advantage of the talent disparity Oregon enjoyed at the perimeter. Mariota does not lack the tools to hit receivers in narrow windows, but he may need to be deprogrammed to understand what an open receiver looks like in the NFL.
On the opposite end of the spectrum is Jameis Winston -- a gunslinger in every sense of the word. In both games evaluated, each of Winston’s interceptions was due largely to bad decision making. Many of his interceptions were either cut off underneath or a result of his testing double or triple coverage. For every head scratching interception, though, Winston made decisions that are analogous with an NFL passer. Winston is masterful in late-game situations, showing a heightened focus during the most pivotal situations. The dichotomy between Mariota and Winston is an interesting one and ultimately comes down to whether it is easier to reign in a player or ask him to let loose.
Splitting the difference between Winston and Mariota stands Hundley. While it is impossible to say that Hundley is a bad decision maker, (an argument more easily made against Winston), he is not a particularly good one, either. One of his five interceptions on the year came in the Utah game when he overthrew a screen pass. It was not an egregious error but more likely due to having his vision obscured by an oncoming rush. Where his decision making stands to improve most is within the pocket. Hundley, who is an outstanding athlete, far too often allows the defense to squeeze him in the pocket. It appears that Hundley is trying too hard to become a pocket passer, curbing his escapability to present a false archetype. It should be noted that Virginia and Utah were early-season opponents, and Hundley improved over the course of the season, but the criticisms of his decision making within the pocket still exist.
1st: Marcus Mariota, 2nd: Jameis Winston, 3rd: Brett Hundley
Final Take
It is important to keep in mind that these players are not finished products as they enter the NFL. Unlike other positions, though, quarterbacks must show enough traits to justify a high draft choice. Physically, all three players are ideal -- or close to ideal -- and are seasoned in concepts that exist in professional football. What separates one from the other are the mental facets that are sometimes able to be taught, but the valuable ones are often innate.
Brett Hundley takes the bronze in this comparison mainly because he provides fewer concrete answers than his competitors. Ultimately, Hundley is an unfinished book that teams may need to take time to write. If he is given time to grow, the payoff could be grand to whoever invests in him. Hundley can flourish in a quarterback-friendly environment such as those in Kansas City and Philadelphia. A neutral projection for his talent suggests he will be something like Jason Campbell, who enjoyed marginal success as an NFL starter.
Statistically, there are few good arguments that can be made against Mariota. His resume as good as anyone before him. The transcription of Mariota’s game into an NFL language is less of an enigma than it was only a few years ago. Still, it is hard to imagine a situation where Mariota is not initially taken aback by the impact NFL talent and speed brings. He will not be able to consistently win in the same ways he won in college, and it will take some feathers getting plucked for him to normalize to professional football abilities. Mariota's talent projects closely to that of Ryan Tannehill, who is beginning to forge a solid role in the NFL.
What separates Winston from his peers is largely due to the amount of promise his talent suggests. There are perhaps no two worse games that could have been chosen for this comparison, yet he still came out on top. As an honest two-sport student athlete (in every sense of the phrase), Winston has yet to fully engage his football potential. He is a natural quarterback and possesses traits that cannot be taught at the next level. He will throw plenty of interceptions in the NFL -- especially in his first year -- but he will also win plenty of games.
1st: Jameis Winston, 2nd: Marcus Mariota, 3rd: Brett Hundley
