The Divisional Round is here and the Detroit Lions can finally enter the playoff fray. Their opponents; the Washington Commanders, fresh off their first playoff win in nearly 20 years.
Led by their impressive rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Commanders have defied the odds in order to make the playoffs, let alone win a postseason game. But is this where their fairytale run comes to an end?
Pressure vs Money in the Bank
The Detroit Lions come into these playoffs expecting to win the whole thing. Injury crisis be damned, they believe that they’ve gotten what it takes and that they’re in a better position than they were last year when they got to the NFC Championship. They’ve overcome the odds to claim the number one seed, so why not hoist the Superbowl at the end of the season?
Dan Campbell has fuelled this team with so much self belief that they will be shell shocked if they do find themselves going home empty handed. The fine line that they must walk is one of earned arrogance and not getting ahead of themselves. They fully expect to be in the Superbowl, they believe it to be their destiny, but they aren’t there just yet.
They will go into the game against the Commanders as the heavy favourites, but that just means there’ll be immense pressure to go through. The Commanders on the other hand are playing with house money. All they wanted for the season was for their rookie quarterback to be worthy of leading the franchise, everything else has just been a bonus.
This means that they’ll enter this game fearless and with nothing to lose. The Lions on the other hand have it all to lose, and with a team that relies so much on passion, bitter disappointment now could send this team into a death spiral.
One thing that we have learned from the Dan Campbell Lions however, is that they rarely enter a game unprepared. Especially if the game has any meaningful significance. In a big spot they appear to raise their game, even beyond their usual lofty levels.
Key Match-ups
Jamhyr Gibbs vs Daron Payne
Following an injury to David Montgomery, Jamhyr Gibbs was given control over the Lions backfield, and there hasn’t been a more electric running back in the league since. Since being given the rock he has racked up 497 total yards and six touchdowns as the Lions won their final three games to secure the number one seed.
Daron Payne is being singled out for the purpose of this exercise, as the match-up will be whether the Washington D-line can stop Gibbs before he can find space. Payne has struggled to live up to his potential throughout his career, a familiar theme around him as Washington’s d-line boasts a lot of stars, but little production.
They rank 30th in run defence which the Lions should exploit as the game where’s on. To combat this, Washington are likely to crowd the line of scrimmage which the Lions could exploit. But with the return of David Montgomery to the line-up, will the Lions be tempted into handing him the ball, and reducing the role of the more dynamic running back in Gibbs?
The Lions run game is also likely to be hurt by the injury to guard Kevin Zeitler who will be missing this week due to a hamstring injury. His replacement , 6th round rookie Christian Mahogany, played well in his one game he started this season. But on that occasion he replaced Graham Glasgow, who hasn’t been on Zeitler’s level this season, so this time around, the impact may be felt more.
Jayden Daniels vs Alex Anzalone
When looking at Jayden Daniels’ skill set, you’d expect the Commander's offence to resemble that of the Baltimore Ravens. Explosive plays and plenty of scrambling. But instead, we’ve got a Tom Brady Patriots style offence that revolves around the time of possession and extending drives.
Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Commanders methodically made their way down the field, limiting their opponents to only 43 offensive plays. A benefit that Daniels has over Brady is his mobility, which he uses at opportune times to maintain offensive possession.
Against an offence as potent as the Lions, limiting possessions will be optimal to the Commanders strategy for victory. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions strategy will involve getting Daniels off the field as quick as possible.
The central figure to this strategy will be veteran linebacker Alex Anzalone. When he was injured the Lions saw their defence getting exploited by mobile quarterbacks and running backs running routes. The absence of Anzalone and his speed left wide open gaps for offences to exploit.
Against the Buccaneers Daniels led his team in rushing attempts with 13. Anzalone’s mission will be ensuring he is contained and doesn’t use his legs to get backbreaking first downs.
Terrion Arnold vs Terry McLaurin
The Lions passing defence can be viewed as a weakness on paper. From weeks 14-16 the Lions were ranked 32nd in pass defence, but against the Vikings they limited one of the league's best offences to just nine points.
When Terrion Arnold went down hurt against the Minnesota Vikings, Lions fans feared the worst, especially when he was carted into the tunnel. Another defensive injury to an already obliterated unit. But luckily, it wasn’t long-term, and the bye week showed its usefulness as Arnold is now healthy for the divisional round.
Terry McLaurin has finally gotten a great quarterback for arguably the first time in his career. This year was his most prolific in terms of touchdowns as he scored 13, adding to his tally with one in the wildcard.
Just because Arnold is the Lions' top cornerback and McLaurin is the Commanders' top receiver doesn’t mean they’ll always match up. Against the Vikings, Aaron Glenn matched up Justin Jefferson with Amik Robertson. What is certain though is that the Lions will line up in man coverage.
The Lions will need to hope that Arnold is fully recovered from his injury because even if he doesn’t line up opposite McLaurin, Dyami Brown has now emerged as a viable threat in this offence.
