The first running of the new Champions League league phase is coming to an end and it's safe to say the reception to the new format has been mixed. This was the first change since the 2003-04 season which was the first with the old format of one group stage followed by three knockout rounds and a final and it was a major one.
Criticisms of the format have ranged from some claiming it to be uncompetitive, to losses not mattering as much as they previously did, to the new format adding extra games unnecessarily. All of them have some validity but equally, we've seen several positives from this major change.
All 18 games will be played at the same time (3pm ET/1pm PT) to ensure no teams can collude with each other after seeing earlier results.
A lot could still change as we head into the final matchday so let's dive into the permutations and the matchups that could have the biggest impact.
How do the knockouts work?
Where you finish in the league stage determines whether you are a seeded team. Liverpool will not face the team that finishes in 2nd place, or top if they are overtaken, until the final.
If you finish between 9th and 16th you will be seeded and get to play the second leg of their play-off knockout at home as a reward for finishing higher in the table. Additionally, each pair of positions in the seeded play-off (e.g. 9th and 10th) are paired together and then paired with their lower equivalent in the unseeded play-off (e.g. 23rd and 24th).
This creates a tree that is more akin to how the knockout rounds work in the European Championships or the World Cup, meaning teams can only face those on their side of the tree, as opposed to being able to face anyone left in the competition.
Permutations
Who could move to where? How many teams can move positions? A lot. Currently, only two teams have managed to secure a spot in the Round of 16 heading into the final matchday (Liverpool and Barcelona). Liverpool cannot be caught by anyone other than Barcelona which means they have one of the top two seeds and therefore will play the team that finishes in 15th, 16th, 17th, or 18th. Barcelona can be caught by Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, and Milan.
Nine teams have officially been eliminated from contention after not accruing enough points to have a chance at qualifying heading into the final matchday.
| tEAMS eLIMINATED FROM THE cHAMPIONS lEAGUE | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM | PLAYED | WON | DRAWN | LOST | GD | POINTS |
| Bologa | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| Sparta Praha | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
| Leipzig | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 3 |
| Girona | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 3 |
| Crvena Zvezda | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
| Sturm Graz | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
| Salzburg | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -19 | 3 |
| Slovan Bratislava | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -18 | 0 |
| Young Boys | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -20 | 0 |
Leipzig and Girona are the two biggest suprise eliminations so far. Leipzig have qualified for the knockout stage of the Champions League in four of their six appearances in the competition but a tough schedule and losses in potentially winnable games against Celtic, Aston Villa, and Juventus saw them muster a lowly three points so far. Girona meanwhile, were appearing in the Champions League for the first time after finishing third in La Liga in the 23-24 season. The loss of star players and a tough schedule saw Girona also only manage to pick up three points.
Who could break into the knockouts and who could fall out?
Currently, Shakhtar Donetsk, Dinamo Zagreb, and Manchester City are outside of the knockout places but could qualify for the unseeded knockout play-off.
As it stands, Brugge, Benfica, PSG, Sporting CP, and Stuttgart are at risk of dropping out. Manchester City play Club Brugge and with Brugge currently sitting in 20th on 11 points, a win for Manchester City would see the Citizens leapfrog their Belgian opponents and possibly PSV and secure their spot in the knockout play-offs. Manchester City have to win as they are currently two points behind 24th position which is the final knockout play-off spot.
This would push Brugge down to 21st with a draw between PSG and Stuttgart and wins or draws for Benfica and Sporting CP, knocking them out of Europe. Benfica play Juventus with the old lady fighting for an automatic spot in the Round of 16. That could provide Brugge with a lifeline should they fail to beat Manchester City. Stuttgart are also relying on a Manchester City win as a draw for Brugge would mean Stuttgart have to beat PSG to qualify for the knockout play-off.
PSV, Brugge, Benfica, PSG, Sporting, and Stuttgart could all qualify for the seeded knockout phase if they win their games but due to PSG and Stuttgart playing each other, both teams obviously can't win.
A win for Zagreb would put them on 11 points but their goal difference is so bad (-8) that they would not qualify if every team currently in the knockout play-off spots got a singular points given it is unlikely that they would make up the six goals swing that is needed. Shakhtar need a five-goal swing and losses for Stuttgart with losses or draws for Zagreb and Manchester City also needed.
Who could qualify directly for the round of 16?
Currently, 16 teams could qualify directly for the round of 16 stage and avoid the knockout play-off.
PSV and Brugge cannot qualify for the Round of 16 thanks to fixtures between teams above them preventing that. Every one of Celtic, Juventus, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Brest, Lille, Feyenoord, Monaco, and Aston Villa could break into the round of 16 spots with Bayer Leverkusen, Atalanta, Milan, Atletico Madrid, Inter Milan, and Arsenal all at risk of dropping out.
Celtic, Juventus, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and Borussia Dortmund all currently sit on 12 points which means they need to win to qualify for the round of 16. Meanwhile, Brest, Lille, Feyenoord, Monaco, and Aston Villa are on 13 points. These teams can qualify for the round of 16 with a draw or a win and results above them going their way.
Wins for Atalanta, Milan, Atletico Madrid, Inter, and Arsenal would see them retain their spot in the round of 16. However, if Leverkusen don't win by enough goals then they could be knocked out of the round of 16 spots by any one of Brest, Lille, Feyenoord, Monaco, or Aston Villa.
Biggest Matchups
Still with me? Well, let's look at the biggest matchups. Whilst there aren't many games between top sides, there are still some games that could have a major influence on proceedings.
Aston Villa vs Celtic
A win for either team at Villa Park on Wednesday would ensure their qualification for the knockout playoff phase. A draw or win could see Villa qualify for the round of 16. A draw or win for Celtic could secure a knockout play-off (seeded) spot but a draw is unlikely to yield this result.
Manchester City vs Club Brugge and Stuttgart vs PSG
These two games could have a huge influence on who secures the final spots in the knockout play-off (unseeded). A win for Manchester City would see them qualify as they would leapfrog Brugge and a draw in the Stuttgart - PSG game would put Brugge at serious risk of dropping out of the play-offs.
Brest vs Real Madrid
A win for Brest could see them qualify for the round of 16 as major underdogs and a win for Real Madrid could also see them qualify for the round of 16 but it is unlikely due to the opponents that Dortmund and Bayern Munich will face who have superior goal difference. Real Madrid likely need at least a draw to retain their spot in the seeded knockouts.
Lille vs Feyenoord
The two teams both sit on 13 points with a +2 goal difference. They are separated on account of Feyenoord having scored more goals than Lille. A win for Feyenoord could see them qualify for the Round of 16 and a win for Lille could also see them qualify directly for the knockout stage. A draw could see Feyenoord qualify for the round of 16 but due to Lille having scored less than Feyernoord, a draw would not be enough.
