INDIANAPOLIS -- The Indiana Pacers have already made their 2015 NBA Draft selections, but they are just getting their off-season underway. Free Agency begins on July 1st and that will be the biggest part of the team's 'reloading' process to return as Eastern Conference contenders. Indiana is facing a few holes that need to be filled to make their new style change a success. If they fail to address these holes and move forward with this identity change, they could be in for a brutal 2015-2016 season.
Before looking at the hypothetical variables, it is important to analyze the information that has already been provided about the Pacers' upcoming off-season decisions. A lot of the off-season can be logically predicted based off of the reports and comments that have already been made, but of course, every off-season is filled with smoke screen reports, surprises, and simply false information provided to the public for negotiation purposes.
Here are some key events that have already taken place:
(1.) Roy Hibbert will opt in to his $15.5 million player option. Indiana will seek trade options to move Hibbert during this off-season. Indiana hopes to move him quickly in order to utilize the cap space that a trade would create for free agency.
(2.) David West will opt out of his $12.6 million player option, and then will reportedly leave the team in free agency. West has 'legitimate interest' in signing with the Knicks. Both sides believe that this identity change won't benefit West, and West believes the triangle offense would be a better fit.
(3.) Indiana will not be re-signing backup point guard C.J. Watson. Indiana simply doesn't have the cap space to sign C.J. Watson to a new deal and still get the other moves they want done. Indiana pointed to Watson's injury problems as a reason to not re-sign him.
(4.) Donald Sloan has 'serious interest' in signing a new deal with the Pacers, but Indiana has not expressed interest in a deal with Sloan yet. Sloan would most likely sign a short-term deal worth the veteran's minimum, which could be a great deal for Indiana at backup point guard.
(5.) In the 2015 NBA Draft, the Indiana Pacers selected Myles Turner and Joseph Young. Turner will be brought off the bench but will receive a good amount of minutes. Meanwhile, Young will get the opportunity to make the roster as the third string point guard.
(6.) Rodney Stuckey and the Pacers share 'mutual interest' in getting a new deal done. Stuckey has received interest from both the Kings and Rockets. Also, Stuckey expressed some level of interest in signing with a contender. More will be known once free agency begins.
(7.) Chris Copeland will almost 'certainly not' be re-signed with the Pacers. This has nothing to do with the stabbing incident towards the end of the season, Copeland has never managed to improve his defensive weaknesses to receive minutes.
(8.) Lavoy Allen and Indiana have not talked about sharing interest in a new deal together, but Allen has been quiet in the past in negotiations. Larry Bird really likes Lavoy Allen and for a veteran's minimum player, he is a tremendous role player. Expect both sides to be interested in a new deal.
(9.) Shayne Whittington most likely will return to the Pacers. There has been no reports about this situation, but Indiana really liked what they saw from Whittington this past season. Both sides were happy about last season, expect a new deal this off-season.
(10.) Luis Scola most likely will not be re-signed by the Pacers. Scola has asked for too much money and the Pacers don't feel that he will fit their new up-tempo style. At his age, Indiana is more interested in finding a younger and more athletic reserve power forward option.
(11.) George Hill and C.J. Miles have and will continue to work out together this off-season. Hill went through a 'hell workout' routine last season that really expanded his skills. With Miles participating with even more intense routines, expect big seasons from both players.
(12.) Paul George has been doing very well this off-season. He has been able to do the full work load that he wants to do in order to improve. With his level of determination, work-ethic, and desire, expect him to be much improved and have a great season next year.
(13.) Solomon Hill has continued to work on his skills this off-season. Both the Pacers and Hill are hoping that he can improve his offensive skills to ensure more versatility next season. Hill will continue to work on his overall athleticism for offensive and defensive improvement, plus his overall offensive skills.
(14.) Indiana wants to use Paul George at the power forward position more frequently next season. The team wants to use a smaller and faster lineup more often next season. Indiana wants to go small at the power forward position and not the center position. They still want a rim protector. They believe more floor spacing and offensive miss matches will result in better offense for both George and the team.
(15.) Indiana's desire to continue to use a rim protector will allow for Roy Hibbert to still have a role if he is not traded. Indiana wants to use more of a '4-out, 1-in' offense with more floor spacing, so Hibbert will have more than enough space to work with offensively. Hibbert will need to return a much improved post player to satisfy the team. He has the role to thrive next season, and he just needs to continue to work hard this off-season like he has been in Los Angeles.
(16.) Either Roy Hibbert or Ian Mahinmi will be traded this off-season. With the first-round selection of Myles Turner, Indiana does not have room for three rim protecting centers. Hibbert will be tested first on the trade market, but Mahinmi will be tried on the trade block if Hibbert can't be traded.
(17.) Monta Ellis opted out of his final year player option with the Dallas Mavericks. The Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, and Atlanta Hawks are all interested. Miami wants to use Ellis as a backup plan to Dwyane Wade, while Indiana and Atlanta are the only teams that view him as a priority acquisition.
Based on the players that are currently on the Pacers' roster, here is their current depth chart:
PG: George Hill, Joseph Young
SG: C.J. Miles
SF: Paul George, Solomon Hill, Damjan Rudez
PF:
C: Roy Hibbert, Myles Turner, Ian Mahinmi
If the players that are interested in re-signing with the Pacers do re-sign, here is what their depth chart would look like:
PG: George Hill, Donald Sloan, Joseph Young
SG: C.J. Miles, Rodney Stuckey
SF: Paul George, Solomon Hill, Damjan Rudez
PF: Lavoy Allen, Shayne Whittington
C: Roy Hibbert, Myles Turner, Ian Mahinmi
The starters at the perimeter positions are perfectly acceptable, as well as the second string players. However, the starting frontcourt and backup power forward position would need to be upgraded. Lavoy Allen is a great backup at this stage of his career, but he needs more development to become a good starter. For a contender, Allen is best coming off the bench. Plus, Allen isn't the best fit for Indiana's new system.
Ian Mahinmi should be traded regardless, as there won't be room for him on the team. Myles Turner is going to be the second string center by default. He is better than Mahinmi and will earn that role, but neither are good enough to start. Trading Mahinmi would open up more cap space. Indiana should seek to trade Hibbert regardless to clear cap, or receive a good starter in return.
Based on the depth chart after re-signing likely candidates to new contracts, Indiana still has moves to make. Indiana has around $11.5 million in cap space after signing Myles Turner. Joseph Young has a cap hold, but won't count against the cap until officially signed. Indiana could use their MLE ($5.3 million) to re-sign Stuckey, then their BAE ($2.1 million) to re-sign Lavoy Allen and Donald Sloan. Signing Whittington would take up around $950,000 so that would take the cap to around $10.4 million.
Mahinmi accounts for $4 million, and Hibbert accounts for $15.5 million, trading both would open up some serious free agency options. But, they can still make the necessary moves with their current assets regardless. For hypothetical reasons, let's say Indiana trades at least Mahinmi in a salary dump style trade. Indiana would have around $14.4 million in cap space. Getting Hibbert's salary dumped would give Indiana nearly $30 million in cap space, of course the options drastically improve, but it is unlikely.
In terms of the free-agent athletic power forward department, there are players like Thaddeus Young, but there aren't options really past him. In a worst case scenario, Indiana could use Paul George at power forward and then Solomon Hill at small forward, but that would be really betting on Solomon Hill's player development. For reference, Thaddeus Young has interest in the Knicks and Nets so far, neither Young nor Indiana has expressed mutual interest yet, but they aren't allowed to until July 1st.
In terms of the starting center position, targets like Tyson Chandler would be a smart target to go after. The Dallas Mavericks are 'favorites' to sign DeAndre Jordan and are 'highly likely' to let Tyson Chandler walk in free agency. Chandler would be a great fit for the Pacers on both sides of the ball, neither side has expressed interest yet, but mainly since neither side can't comment on free agency until July 1st.
The Portland Trail Blazers are really interested in acquiring a high quality rim protector, trading either Mahinmi or Hibbert to them is a legitimate possibility. Their fans think the sky is falling in Portland after the draft and LaMarcus Aldridge free agency rumors. GM Paul Allen will be under pressure to make some big moves. Roy Hibbert is a logical trade for both sides since their perimeter defense will be poor, and they'll certainly have a need for rim protection. Portland media has discussed Roy Hibbert being a 'best case' scenario at starting center, as they need desperate help. Portland has been interested in Hibbert throughout his career. Plus they struggle to get anyone significant to sign there. Trading for Hibbert is their ceiling at center. They are so under the cap that they can absorb players like Hibbert, and they need him. They'll be in desperation mode this off-season, and Indiana needs to take advantage of that on the trading block.
After all of the ideal transactions that were previously mentioned, here is what the depth chart could possibly look like:
PG: George Hill, Donald Sloan, Joseph Young
SG: C.J. Miles, Rodney Stuckey, Roster Filler
SF: Paul George, Solomon Hill, Damjan Rudez
PF: Thaddeus Young, Lavoy Allen, Shayne Whittington
C: Tyson Chandler, Myles Turner, Roster Filler
In their 'ideal off-season', the Pacers would headline acquiring players like Tyson Chandler and Thaddeus Young. They would also be bringing back players like Rodney Stuckey, Lavoy Allen, and Donald Sloan. Indiana doesn't need to bring in superstars, they just need good starters that can fit their new system. This would be a very fitting team in a new system with versatile rotation options, and it could certainly contend in the Eastern Conference. The assets are more than there for this ideal off-season to take place, but they just need to make these moves happen.
This is all of course if Roy Hibbert is traded to a team like the Trail Blazers that not only needs to absorb salary, but needs to acquire a center. Portland is most likely going to lose LaMarcus Aldridge to free agency, possibly even Robin Lopez. With pressure to get a deal done, a poor free agency record, a ton of cap space to work with, the need for a rim protector and starting quality center, and Hibbert’s expiring contract, it makes a lot of sense for Portland to acquire Hibbert. Mason Plumlee is a nice player, but he’s not a quality starter yet. Portland doesn’t want to rebuild so Hibbert would allow for Plumlee to have more time to develop his game, then start.
Of course the options diminish when you take away a Roy Hibbert salary dump trade, but Indiana could certainly be in play for Thaddeus Young even if they trade Ian Mahinmi. It would take a Hibbert trade to be able to target Tyson Chandler and Thaddeus Young, but it is certainly possible to do so. Indiana would struggle to afford either Young or Chandler without dumping either Mahinmi or Hibbert, but when you dump Mahinmi they can afford one, dumping Hibbert alone would allow for both to be in play.
Indiana might need to pull out the emergency plans if they can’t sign a player like Thaddeus Young at power forward. They don’t have many options outside of Thaddeus Young in free agency, so it is practically either sign Young, or start Paul George at power forward. Starting George at power forward would be fine for George. However, Indiana would have to fill his void at small forward. It would account for Solomon Hill taking the fast track in his player development, but that is certainly possible. Hill has improved every year he’s been in Indiana so it is not unreasonable to account for his development. Thaddeus Young remains the only quality athletic power forward in free agency that is reasonable to target, but he is still unlikely for the Pacers to acquire based on current interest and the cap situation, but it is still possible.
As for Tyson Chandler, that would only be necessary if Roy Hibbert is traded. There is a common misconception that Hibbert won’t fit the Pacers new system, which is false. Indiana wants to go small at power forward to play faster and more spaced, not at center. They still want a rim protector, so keeping Hibbert wouldn’t be bad at all, but they just need him engaged, giving effort, and to work on his game this off-season. The touches and the role will be there, he just needs to work hard and earn it. Don’t rule out a Hibbert trade, whether finding a suitor seems unlikely or not. He will be talked about on the phone lines for a trade. There really aren't any reasonable athletic center options outside of Tyson Chandler, so getting one is unlikely based on current interest and the cap situation, but it is still possible.
Since the Pacers struggle to make high quality free agency moves and trades, this would be the most likely scenario:
PG: George Hill, Donald Sloan, Joseph Young
SG: C.J. Miles, Rodney Stuckey, Roster Filler
SF: Paul George, Solomon Hill, Damjan Rudez
PF: Lavoy Allen, Shayne Whittington, Roster Filler
C: Roy Hibbert, Myles Turner, Ian Mahinmi
The scenario before this one is certainly better, but this is far more realistic. The free agent market doesn’t really have many high quality athletic options, plus Thaddeus Young will most likely re-sign with the Nets. Counting on Dallas to land a key free agent is never a good thing, so expect Tyson Chandler to return to the Mavericks. Indiana will most likely re-sign their ‘in-house’ talent and make little to no moves in free agency outside of their 2014-2015 roster. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but they won’t be getting their desired starter at power forward without starting George there, but they stated that it is unlikely that they will start him at the position. The rest of the starting lineup is fine. Hibbert isn’t bad, and it’s just his production for that contract. Hibbert should be an elite contributor but he is not close to that, and that’s why he’s being discussed in trade talks. It wouldn’t be the worst thing to keep Hibbert, but it restricts their free agency capabilities. Lavoy Allen won’t be the type of power forward that the team desires, but he allows for the team to still have a great option against traditional 3-out, 2-in teams. Allen has been working on his athleticism to specifically improve his defense, so he shouldn’t be a liability as a small ball power forward. Allen just isn’t the best available option as a starter, but after a full off-season of hard work, he wouldn’t be a bad option.
Indiana has a lot of variables that they are facing this off-season. They can either evolve into a legitimate title contender with some great off-season moves, or they will simply return as a playoff team. The first option would allow for the Pacers to contend for a title, but the second option would simply be playoff team that would probably get bounced by Cleveland. It will all rely on trading Hibbert, possibly Mahinmi as well, then using their current and created cap space for fitting free agents. Indiana has the assets necessary to return as legitimate title contenders, and the pieces just need to fall in their favor. In a worst case, Hibbert has to remain on the roster and the Pacers will have $50-60 million to spend in next year’s free agency after another NBA draft with a first and second-round selection. If the pieces don’t fall in their favor this season, having George Hill, Paul George, C.J. Miles, Solomon Hill, Myles Turner, and Joseph Young on the roster to recruit free agents in a loaded free agency class with an extreme amount of cap space wouldn’t be a bad thing.
Next season would be an easier transition to this 'faster and smaller' approach, but in the worst case Indiana can start games with a traditional approach and use their small-ball lineup in certain situations. That plan wouldn't be horrible, but Indiana just would not necessarily be a title contending quality team.