1. Houston Texans: Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB South Carolina. The lesson from past drafts is very clear: if there’s a franchise QB available in the draft, take them in the top 5 one way or the other. And seriously examining at the top flight QBs available in this draft, it's hard to say that any of the QBs in this draft fit that description. Bridgewater and Carr look like the best of the bunch, they could be very good starters in the NFL. Manziel and Bortles have amazing potential but you’re taking on a lot of risk also. None of these prospects are to the level of Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III. And while Clowney might be a once in a generation type prospect, and whether or not the Texans take Clowney here or trade out of the pick, they seem to agree with the assessment that there's not a franchise level QB in this draft.
2. St Louis Rams(from Washington): Trade or Greg Robinson, OT Auburn. Ultimately, the Rams probably will deal this pick for whatever that they can get. If Clowney goes #1, someone will smell a chance to get the QB that they want at 2. As for Greg Robinson, he appears has a lot of risk as a prospect. Yes, the Trent Williams comparisons might be fair, but Williams didn’t flat out disappear for stretches like Robinson did against good teams. Left tackles who are the cornerstone of your offensive line shouldn’t be question marks.
Washington’s 2nd round pick: Antonio Richardson, OT Tennessee. Washington will probably deal out of this pick also unless Tiny Richardson is there. Sources inside Redskins Park say that they love Richardson and see him as perfect for Gruden’s system. Maybe even if he is there also. They also love Morgan Moses if they can't deal out this pick. Their priorities appear to be locked into two tracks for pick #34 and #66: 1-replacing Tyler Polumbus at RT right now or 2-Replacing Brian Orakpo in a year. They should be able to do that either at 34 or in the mid 40s of the second round.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles, QB UCF. The Jags need a QB. The draft bust of the Blaine Gabbert pick makes it hard to see them taking any QB prospect that needs a lot of development or carries a large amount of risk. Bortles does need some development and taking him entails some risk, but he doesn’t have the obvious problems in his game that Gabbert had. Also, he's a semi-local kid and that will boost ticket/jersey sales (yes, teams will consider that when drafting high or a franchise QB).
4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M. It would be surprising if the Browns drafted anyone else at this point, their owner apparently is pushing the front office to do this and Kyle Shanahan did something that coaches rarely do: talking about how he would use the prospect. This will probably be a total disaster for both parties and they'll trade Manziel to Dallas in four seasons.
5. Oakland Raiders: Sammy Watkins, WR Clemson. They signed James Jones and have some younger guys that they could stick with, but this is the Raiders. They're not going to make the common sense move, they're going to try to excite their fanbase, give Schaub a big name option and honor Al Davis' insane legacy.
6. Atlanta Falcons: Jake Matthews Jr., OT Texas A&M. They’ve been flirting with moving up for Clowney, but the price (#6, 2015 1st and Roddy White) is just too steep right now. They’ll likely stay here and keep Matt Ryan upright. Matthews might not be an A+ superstar prospect, but he’s a A- level at worse. And fixing their left tackle spot should make them a contender for a playoff spot in 2014.
7. Tampa Bay Bucs: Khahil Mack, Defensive attacker Buffalo. They have Lavonte David in place for the Will position. They need an outside rusher to replace Clayburn(whom they didn't exercise the 2015 option on) and Bowers(who'll never amount to much as an NFL player), Mack can be this edge rusher for Lovie on 3rd downs and play the Sam on 1st and 2nd down.
8. Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville. The Vikings have to take a QB high. Either here, by trading back into the first round or high in the second. They probably are thinking that Mettenberger will go somewhere from pick #20-40, but they'd only consider it if Bridgewater and Carr aren't here since they won’t hesitate to pull the trigger on either. As for Bridgewater: The buzz is that he’s dropping, maybe into the 2nd round. That seems like more a pundit belief than a scout/decision maker belief.
9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans, WR Texas A&M. There’s a report that they want Clowney and are exploring ways to move up to #2 if Houston passes on him. This makes little sense for them considering their investment in Mario Williams and with the emergence of Jerry Hughes as a situational rusher(unless Hughes is part of the deal). They would also love a shot at Sammy Watkins, but Mike Evans probably will be the better pro player and a better fit for a QB who tends to spray the ball like Manuel does.
10. Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert, CB Oklahoma State. A lot of pundits are linking them to offensive skill position prospects. They desperately need a lockdown CB since Slay is very uneven. Gilbert might not be an A+ prospect, but he’ll do well for them especially with the coaching that they have now.
11. Tennessee Titans: Derek Carr, QB Fresno State. Whisenhunt and the Titans’ FO is saying all the right things, but it’s clear that they have little interest in Jake Locker long term at QB. They just leaked that they won't be picking up Locker's option year for 2015. If any of the big four QB prospects drop here, they’ll probably take them. This is also a spot that could be used for a team like Miami or Seattle to move up for Taylor Lewan.
12. New York Giants: Anthony Barr, LB UCLA. Jerry Reese doesn’t care about people's thoughts on "what the Giants need to draft.” He scoffs at attempts to apply logic or reason to a mock draft for him. That’s because Jerry Reese only cares about one thing: talent, talent and talent. He’ll take the highest rated player on his board and let the coaches figure it out. Barr potentially fixes their long term hole at SLB and can be a 3rd down pass rusher on the defensive line.
13. St Louis Rams: Aaron Donald, DT Pittsburgh. Robinson at #2, Donald here. Gregg Williams loves penetrating DTs and Donald certainly is that. They still need to address the defensive backfield, but the improvement to the defense that Donald should bring makes them almost instantly credible in the NFC West.
14 Chicago Bears: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S Alabama. They need a coverage safety in the worse way. Clinton-Dix might not be that blue chip type prospect that teams trade up for, but you're getting a very good FS who can help arraign the defense properly. The Bears still need some DT beef in the middle of the defense and a developmental WR to eventually replace Marshall.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Taylor Lewan, OT Michigan. The Steelers are after WRs and CBs reportedly. They do realize though that Big Ben took 42 sacks and rushed way too many throws last season because the LT spot was an utter mess all season long. If one of the big OT prospects isn't here, nor is a guy like Aaron Donald or Mike Evans, don't be shocked if there's a trade here. Miami will want to jump Baltimore for Zach Martin.
16. Dallas Cowboys: Trade or Calvin Pryor, S Louisville. The Tampa-2 needs quality safeties and while Dallas has invested a ton of cash and draft picks into that defense, they still don't have the safety talent required to properly run this defense. That being said, if Manziel, Pryor, Aaron Donald or Clinton-Dix aren’t here, Dallas will try to deal down and emphasize fixing their defensive line. Dallas and San Fran have done business in the past, and San Fran has extra picks. They also could throw in a young edge rusher for the Cowboys to play at DE.
17. Baltimore Ravens: Trade or Odell Beckham Jr., WR LSU. Baltimore would LOVE for Lewan or Pryor to drop here. If so, they’ll take either one. If not, they’ll focus on an offensive playmaker to go with the Smiths(Torrey and Steve). Beckham will be a great fit for them and will replace Steve Smith in a season or two. They have to go right tackle in round 2 though, which is why they're very likely to deal down.
18. New York Jets: Eric Ebron, TE UNC. If Manziel drops here, the Jets could take him just for the 'best player available' aspect of it. They could also go CB here pretty easily if they don’t think much of Dee Milliner. They just can’t pass on an offensive weapon from Vick/Smith that they need desperately. Ebron isn’t a great blocker, but he’ll be their top receiving target quickly.
19. Miami Dolphins: Zach Martin, OT Notre Dame. The worst kept secret in the draft is that Miami wants a right tackle badly. They’ll be fine with Zach Martin, they’ll try to deal up for Lewan. It would be surprising if they ended up taking another position or picking in this slot.
20. Arizona Cardinals: Trade or Zach Mettenberger, QB LSU. Here’s where things get interesting. The Cards have a few needs, but no prospects that they really like enough for this pick. If one of the big four QB prospects drop here, they’ll be all over him, but Mettenberger is worth the stretch for them. They can use a 2nd on an outside rusher or a OG, but they get their future here.
21. Green Bay Packers: Trade or CJ Mosley, LB Alabama. They really wanted a FS here, but the Bears took Pryor. If neither of the two big FS prospects are here, they probably would deal down into the late first. If they’re stuck here without a FS that they like, they should take Mosley. He can start tomorrow and provide leadership on the field.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Dee Ford, DE/OLB Auburn. It would be shocking if Ford made it here, but he almost certainly won’t make it past here. The Eagles see the need to reinforce that defense and Trent Cole can be had for a 3rd rounder or a high 4th if this pick happens. Maybe Trent Cole plus a conditional pick for Dion Jordan?
23. Kansas City Chiefs: Trade or Xavier Su’a-Filo, OL UCLA. There's a lot of chatter that the Chiefs want out of this pick because they are fine with dropping out of the 1st and drafting two OGs early and this chatter is very logical. The 49ers have their natural 2nd and extra picks and these teams have done business recently.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Bradley Roby, CB Ohio State. D. Dennard is a possibility here, as is a defensive end or a right tackle. A CB here is plausible, but not Dennard. Roby is more what they’re looking for and it allows them to deal a CB to Minnesota to reunite with Zimmer. What isn't plausible is drafting a QB like Bridgewater(if he drops here) to undermine Dalton.
25. San Diego Chargers: Louis Nix, NT Notre Dame. They like Jerideau, but he’s not going to be anything more than a rotational guy. Nix needs to be ramped into the starting job, so another rotational guy for now would be fine with the Bolts.
26. Cleveland Browns(from Indy): Trade or Jimmy Garoppolo, QB Eastern Illinois. Well, that didn’t go the way that the Browns were thinking back at pick #4. They thought someone from the big four QB prospects+Mettenberger would be available here, so don’t be shocked if they trade out of this pick here in this scenario. If they’re stuck here, Garoppolo makes some sense. He’s got a good arm and some mobility. He has a big red flag when it comes to blitz recognition though.
Colts’ 2nd round pick: Chris Borland, ILB Wisconsin. Yeah, they did sign D'qwell Jackson to man the ILB spot and they really could use an interior lineman here. They love them some Chris Borland though, and they can’t pass on him. Borland is a good prospect, but he has clear limitations as a player.
27. New Orleans Saints: Kony Ealy, DE/OLB Missouri. This is the logical pick. The “Crazy Saints” pick is a RB or a TE like Jace Amero. Right now, logic probably trumps crazy because they need another pass rusher. Vic Butler is horrible at his job and Galette might just be a one year wonder. All this being said, the entire Saints braintrust is spending the weekend before the draft living it up large in Las Vegas.
28. Carolina Panthers: Trade or Joel Bitonio, OT/OG Nevada. Antonio Richardson is a possibility here, but they want someone with more mobility to keep up with that offense. Bitonio is well thought of in the league and especially among teams who want a faster OT to man their left tackle spot. Some scouts also swear by one play where he ran 40 yards down the field to recover a loose fumble.
29. New England Patriots: Trade or Dom Easley DL Florida. He blew out his knee last fall and they have other needs. However they also need defensive line reinforcement and Easley’s versatility makes him an attractive target for Belichick. They could drop back 10 picks and still get Easley. Maybe even 20.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Darqueze Dennard, CB Michigan State. They’re keeping Aldon Smith for now but the CB spot is very thin. It's far more likely than not that they deal up for a Cb that they want. Taking Dennard is an admission that the Seahawks have the better defense. He's more in the mode of Richard Sherman: a physical CB who isn't afraid of covering anyone.
31. Denver Broncos: Ra’Shade Hageman, DT Minnesota. A lot of mocks have them taking Ryan Shazier. This makes some sense in theory(Shazier seems very flawed as a prospect, but that doesn't stop teams from taking obviously flawed prospects), but they’re also sniffing around DTs to go with their smaller, faster attackers on the edge. Hageman is a load to move, but they would prefer Nix.
32. Seattle Seahawks: Morgan Moses, OT UVA. The Hawks love James Carpenter but he can’t seem to start an entire season for them and it looks like he’ll move inside to OG full time. They need a RT and Moses makes a lot of sense. Smart player who needs some coaching, but he has the body that Carroll likes in his tackles.