So, let’s review some mocks, shall we? Let’s also set up a scoring system. 10 points if you got right player going to the right team in the right spot. 4 points if the player ends up with the team you predicted. 4 points if you had the player going in the spot he did (but to a different team). 2 points if you get the player going within five spots of where he actually went(for example, if you didn’t have Clowney going 1, but before pick 7). -2 points if the player in question didn’t go in the first round.
So, the mocks that will be analyzed:
The Author’s.
Pete Prisco, Pat Kirwin and Will Brinson.
Peter King/MMQB.
Don Banks, Chris Burke and Doug Farrar
Mike Mayock, Daniel Jeremiah and Charlie Casserly
To avoid you having to read through thousands of words which details the scoring, let’s just skip ahead to the final data and the conclusions. If you are interested in picking through all the scoring, here you go.
Final data:
The Mock drafts ranked.
Or in non-graph form:
1st Round Grade: 80
Daniel Jeremiah: 78
The author: 72
Charlie Casserly: 58
Mike Mayock: 56
Don Banks: 54
Pete Prisco: 50
Doug Farrar: 42
Chris Burke:34
Pat Kirwin: 34
Will Brinson: 32
Peter King: 32
The top 10 most accurate picks:
1. Pick #1-Jadeveon Clowney, DE Houston (8 points on average) (tie)
1. Pick #2-Greg Robinson, OL St. Louis (8 points on average) (tie)
3. Pick #7-Mike Evans, WR Tampa (5.83 points on average)
4. Pick #6-Jake Matthews Jr, OT Atlanta (5.33 points on average)
5. Pick #25-Jason Verrett, CB San Diego (3.67 points on average)
6. Pick #17-CJ Mosley, LB Baltimore (3 points on average)
7. Pick #4 Sammy Watkins, WR Buffalo (2.83 points on average) (tie)
7. Pick #13-Aaron Donald, DT St. Louis (2.83 points on average)
9. Pick #5-Khalil Mack, LB Oakland (2.67 points on average)
10. Pick #8-Justin Gilbert, CB Cleveland (2 points on average)
The top 10 least accurate picks:
1. Pick #27-Deone Bucannon, S Arizona (0 points on average)
2. Pick #30-Jimmie Ward, S San Fran (0.16 points on average) (tie)
2. Pick #28-Kelvin Benjamin, WR Carolina (0.16 points on average) (tie)
2. Pick #26-Marcus Smith, DE/OLB Philadelphia (0.16 points on average) (tie)
5. Pick #31-Bradley Roby, CB Denver (0.5 points on average)
6. Pick #29-Dominique Easley, DT New England (0.83 points on average) (tie)
6. Pick #19-Ju’Wan James, OT Miami (0.83 points on average) (tie)
6. Pick #15-Ryan Shazier, LB Pittsburgh (0.83 points on average) (tie)
6. Pick #14-Kyle Fuller, CB Chicago (0.83 points on average) (tie)
10. Pick #32-Teddy Bridgewater, QB Minnesota (1 point on average) (tie)
10. Pick #22-Johnny Manziel, QB Cleveland (1 point on average) (tie)
10. Pick #21-Haha Clinton-Dix, S Green Bay (1 point on average) (tie)
10. Pick #3-Blake Bortles, QB Jacksonville (1 point on average) (tie)
The combined score by pick in graph form:
Conclusions:
1-Being a scout (even a long time one) or a veteran NFL insider means nothing when it comes to predicting the 1st round of the draft. Two of the top three mock drafts were made by people without a day of NFL experience. NFL insiders and ex-front office staffers/coaches have a legion of sources to keep them “plugged in” but this blade cuts both ways. What the data shows is that no matter how great someone’s sources, they either can’t distinguish fake information from the real or they’re intentionally letting their sources give them misinformation to spread. This isn’t to say that they don’t leak good, solid information from time to time, but they aren’t getting enough consistent info to be trusted. A case in point: the only pundit to get the Blake Bortles pick at #3 overall correct was the author of this piece. Only one other pundit got him within five picks of where he went. And the reason why is that the Jaguars decided on him early in the draft process and then intentionally gave out bad information about who they wanted, and the “plugged in” pundits all fell for it.
2-Out of the 794 total points netted by the 12 pundits examined, 404 of them were first seven picks. Conversely the pundits netted 34 points in the final seven picks-22 of them from the picks #29 and 32. And every pundit picked at least five prospects who weren’t picked in the first round. This is clearly a problem of domino effect compounded by the pundits being disconnected from 32 players who all value the products (prospects) in much different ways (and have nothing but incentive to lie to everyone outside of their group). And this problem can never be fixed in any way, shape or form. The lesson here is that you should stop reading a mock draft after pick #10. They’re basically useless except as entertainment.