1. Tampa Bay: Jameis Winston, QB Florida State. The Bucs need to excite a fan base who’s literally had the excitement strangled out of it after several disappointing season. Winston has a lot of red flags but NFL level tools to work with also. Pundits like to compare him to Big Ben or Tony Romo, but this author thinks that Matt Ryan is a better comparison. And Matt Ryan isn’t worth an #1 overall pick.

2. Tennessee: Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon. Let’s go over a list of spread/option QBs who had sustained success in the NFL, yeah, it is currently blank. The odds are that the Titans will take Williams or deal this pick away to Philadelphia or Cleveland, but since this mock is trade less let’s pretend that Mariota goes here to Tennessee.

3. Jacksonville: Kevin White, WR WVU. This shouldn’t be that big of a surprise for anyone. Even after signing Julius Thomas, their receivers need help. To be fair, their entire team needs help but the improvement in the offense that White could bring is too much to pass on. If Leonard Williams drops here, it might change things but they need a WR more than they need a DE since they had 45 sacks last year.

4. Oakland: Leonard Williams, DL Southern Cal. The conventional wisdom is that they’ll take a receiver. They very well might, but its doubtful that they pass on a defensive lineman like Williams. They only had 22 sacks in 2014 and this number has to increase dramatically while they develop Carr. Amari Cooper or Kevin White would be S.O.P for the Raiders though.

5. Washington Redskins: Randy Gregory, OLB/DE Nebraska. Gregory is raw but has amazing potential as an edge rusher. The Redskins like last year’s 2nd rounder Murphy, but he’s more a run stopper/ballhawk. McCloughan gets the best of both worlds here, arguably the most potential talented player in the draft and a raw player to undermine Gruden’s regime in the District by not helping his defense out immediately. If Mariota is still here, expect a trade out of this spot by the Skins. In fact, you should expect the Redskins to deal out of this pick unless Leonard Williams falls here.

6. New York Jets: Dante Fowler, DE/OLB Florida. Quentin Coples has been a bust as an edge rusher and Father Time has come for Calvin Pace it appears. While Bowles loves multiple blitz packages from different angles, he needs a foundational rusher on the edge so that he doesn’t have to send 6 at the quarterback on every play. Fowler might not be great value, but there’s no other options for them here. Trading for Brandon Marshall eliminates taking a receiver here.

7. Chicago: Danny Shelton, DT Washington. Moving to a three front defense means that you need a 0 tech defensive tackle and while the Bears have some interesting options at defensive line, Ego Ferguson, Sutton, etc, none of them seems like a good fit for this role. They need a big butt to put over the center and Shelton is certainly that.

8. Atlanta: Shane Ray, DE/OLB Missouri. This is a standard “best player available” pick. Ray doesn’t fill their two biggest needs (OT and CB) but he’s too talented to pass on. Ray can play the LEO for Quinn and just attack the ball as much as possible.

9. New York Giants: Landon Collins, S Alabama. Another Jerry Reese “best player available” special. Collins has some major holes in his game but has great natural ability and would thrive in Steve Spagnuolo's defense.

10. St Louis: Brandon Scherff, OT Iowa. It doesn’t matter that they have Saffold and possibly Barksdale at right tackle, one of the three would move inside to guard here (or two out of the three). Fisher truly believes in the lines and right now their offensive line isn’t good enough for Foles.

11. Minnesota: Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State. After dealing for Mike Wallace, the Vikes don’t need Amari Cooper (who would have been the pick without that deal). Waynes fills a major need for them as they face Jordy Nelson and Calvin Johnson in 1/4 of their games. Zimmer loves press Cbs and Waynes is certainly a good one.

12. Cleveland: Amari Cooper, WR Alabama. When acquiring Brian Hartline is seen as an improvement to your wide receiver corps, it’s time to make an investment. And Cooper, no matter how great he can be, isn’t enough even if Josh Gordon ever plays for them again.

13. New Orleans: Bud Dupree, DE/OLB Kentucky. Honestly, who knows what the Saints are going to do here. They’re stripping their roster bare and there’s nothing off the table anymore. Dupree makes the most logical sense for their defense.  

14. Miami: Eric Kendricks, LB UCLA. After adding Suh to that defense, they need to maximize his value to the team and that’s accomplished by putting a quick, fast MLB behind him to take advantage of how many blockers Suh will take up.

15. San Francisco: Arik Armstead, DL Oregon. The 49ers, after getting Reggie Bush and Torrey Smith, need defensive talent to replace Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, and Chris Culliver. Armstead is a monster of a prospect who needs shaping but his physical tools mean that you can play him now.

16. Houston: Todd Gurley, RB Georgia. Arian Foster is a very underrated running back and when he makes enough starts he can be a truly great back. However he’s only ever made 16 starts once in his career. Gurley is recovering but in a year, Foster will be pushing 30 and will in a contract year.

17. San Diego: Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson. Beasley is far from an ideal fit (he’s a weird dude who can be un coachable at times, just ask his head coach about the turtle funeral) but on sheer talent they might love him. Also, with their OLBs disappointing in 2014, they need a pure rusher badly.

18. Kansas City: DeVante Parker, WR Louisville. Andy Reid will be a bit surprised to see Parker here but he’ll gladly take him to team with Jeremy Maclin (other needs not withstanding).

19. Cleveland (from Buffalo): Ereck Flowers, OT Miami. Joe Thomas is as good as it gets in the NFL in terms of a LT. Name their right tackle. Exactly. It would fit a major need here for the Browns.

Buffalo’s 2nd rounder: Bryce Petty, QB Baylor. Pundits have them linked to Brett Hundley (and have so for awhile now) but with Greg Roman in charge of the offense they need a guy who can play action well and deep the deep throws when needed. Petty has some major flaws but the Bills will reach here.

20. Philadelphia: Brett Hundley, QB UCLA. They really, really want Mariota. And if they can’t get him, they might offer this pick or Sam Bradford and a smaller pick to DC for RG3. In this vacuum, Hundley makes sense. He’s a physical freak with a big arm and bigger legs. Another wild idea in an offseason full of them: Sam Bradford and 2 first round picks for Cam Newton.

21. Cincinnati: La’el Collins, OT LSU. Winston and Whitworth are both over 30. Winston, especially, is slowing down and they need some new talent for the future. Collins can sit and learn for a few games before Whitworth is moved inside.

22. Pittsburgh: Nate Orchard, OLB/DE Utah. They need help at CB badly but also at OLB since Arthur Moats and Jarvis Jones simply aren’t enough. Maybe if they sign Harrison again or find a bargain signing in free agency they’ll go after a CB here. Assuming that they don’t, Orchard is a great fit for them.

23. Detroit: Eddie Goldman, DL Florida State. No Nick Fairley, No Ndamukong Suh and Haloti Ngata needs another big body to stick with him inside. Goldman and Ngata can both flip between the 1 and 2 gap positions.

24. Arizona: Benardrick McKinney, LB Mississippi State. They have almost no expectation of seeing much production from Daryl Washington after his year off. If they get a big season from him, then McKinney can play outside and help there. Or he can still play inside and help out. Either way, they’re getting something for their money.

25. Carolina: DJ Humphries, OT Florida. If they want Cam Newton to re-sign after this season (the long standing trade rumors about him notwithstanding), they have to protect him. His career will end prematurely if they can’t put two decent OTs in front of him.

26. Baltimore: Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona State. The Ravens have a lot of holes to fill, but they need a Torrey Smith replacement badly. Strong’s game has a strong resemblance to Torrey’s but might end up being more consistent player.

27. Dallas: Preston Smith, DE Mississippi State. Smith is a player whose stock is on the rise. Teams see a guy who can move up and down a defensive line and won’t embarrass himself anywhere. Dallas can use him at the 3, the 2, or at either defensive end spot.

28. Denver: Andrus Peat, OL Stanford. The Broncos have lost too much on the offensive line and that ultimately was their problem in 2014. Peyton didn't have all day to throw and it became clear that you could get in Manning’s face to disrupt him without having to send an all-out blitz. Losing Franklin to the Bolts means that they need another big body out there now.

29. Indianapolis: Shaq Thompson, LB Washington. The Colts have officially opened the door on a three season window for a Super bowl run, so a project like Thompson might not make 100% sense. However, they need defender that can take advantage of being forgotten about with all the defensive talent that they still have on the field. Thompson’s physical gifts makes him a potential star quickly.

30. Green Bay: Jordan Phillips, DT Oklahoma. No Raji, no Guion and they’ll need another big butt to make that defense run smoothly. Phillips can move from 5 to 0 and back and won’t be asked to be a star.

31. New Orleans (from Seattle): Devin Funchess, TE/WR Michigan. Again this pick comes with the caveat that “who the heck knows what the Saints will do.” Logically, this makes sense. Funchess is a prototypical split wide TE who will cause matchup problems.

Seattle’s 2nd round pick: Za’Darius Smith, DL Kentucky. A perfect fit for Seattle’s defense. He can play almost anywhere on the line and is good at getting penetration.

32. New England: Malcolm Brown, DT Texas. They need a Wilfork replacement. Brown isn't nearly as talented but he can be a big body that can clog up the middle of an offense.

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About the author
Jon Fox
Just listen to Radiohead when you read my pieces and we will get along just fine.