1. Tampa Bay: Jameis Winston, QB Florida State. Unless something truly odd happens between now, Winston will be the pick #1. If Tampa gets cold feet, then it will be Mariota.

2. Philadelphia (from Tennessee, Tennessee gets pick 20, Sam Bradford, a 2016 1st, a 2015 2nd and 4th round picks): Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon. The Eagles are going to make a trade involving their first round pick and them getting a QB. They would prefer not to pay this much, but Kelly is all in and desperate enough to believe the rumors that the Titans want Mariota.

3. Jacksonville: Kevin White, WR West Virginia. Picks 3 and 4 could flip flop, but the more the Jags don’t do something like deal for Adrian Peterson (which is possible), the more it looks like this pick will be Kevin White. Don’t be shocked if and when they deal back into the first round for a defensive player or another offensive talent who's dropped.

4. Oakland: Leonard Williams, DL Southern Cal. If Williams isn’t here, they almost certainly take the best WR available. Despite all their investing on the defense, they’ll keep investing in it. Del Rio believes in building your defense from inside out and they need another DT to go with Dan Williams.

5. Tennessee (from Washington, Washington gets pick 20, Zach Mettenberger, Tennessee’s natural 2nd and 4th round picks): Amari Cooper, WR Alabama. The Titans are flush with picks and need to give Bradford some tools. Cooper is a good, polished WR prospect that has been in the draft in a while. The Redskins move out of this pick because they want to increase their assets, perhaps to trade back up.

6. New York Jets: Danny Shelton, DT Washington. They have great DEs. They don’t have anything more than big bodies at the nose tackle position. Shelton takes them from “very good defensive line” to “amazing defensive line that might be able to change a game by itself.” And allows them to low ball Muhammad Wilkerson in his new contract talks. 

7. New Orleans (from Chicago, Chicago gets pick #13 and a 2016 2nd rounder): Dante Fowler, Jr DL/OLB Florida. The Saints need a joker for that defense. And by that, the author means a guy that can move around the defensive formation. Fowler can play OLB rusher for them, 5 Tech DE and 3 Tech DT in a 4 front look. And he’ll keep coming at the QB/RB every single play. That's why they dealt up for him. The Bears dealt down because they’re top two targets (Amari Cooper and Danny Shelton) are gone and maybe Randy Gregory makes it to 13.

8. Atlanta: Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State. It’s him or Gregory here. Quinn probably remembers that the Legion of Boom was more responsible for his success in Seattle than the rushers were. And Bruce Irvin was the highest draft pick that the Seahawks made on that defensive line.

9. New York Giants: Randy Gregory, DE/OLB Nebraska. A pure best player available pick here. They have George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul under contract but Steve Spagnuolo knows that they need at least three front line rushers and JPP could walk in a year.

10. Washington (from St Louis, Rams get pick 20 and Washington’s natural 2nd, Washington also gets a 5th round pick): Brandon Scherff, OL Iowa. Scot McCloughan gets the guy he wanted all along, moves up in the 2nd round, gets Zach Mettenberger and a couple mid round picks for his trouble. His next move will be to ship RG3 off somewhere.

11. Minnesota: Ron Darby, CB Florida State. They would have loved to see Waynes end up here but Atlanta deprived them of the opportunity. Darby is quietly rising among the decision makers, especially those who want a press/physical CB for a chance to badly imitate the Seattle defensive backs.

12. Cleveland: Eddie Goldman, DL Florida State. They need to move Phil Taylor somewhere. either to another team or out to 3 Tech in their line. Goldman is a massive load of a player and will fit in quickly.

13. Chicago (from New Orleans): Bud Dupree, OLB/DE Kentucky. Chicago still is without a 0 Technique nose tackle option worthy of the pick or a WR that they like. After calling around, they take the best player available on their board. Dupree is a guy that Vic Fangio might be able to mold into Aldon Smith without the arrests.

14. Miami: Marcus Peters, CB Washington. Worst kept secret in the NFL is that Miami will jump all over the best CB available.

15. San Francisco: Vic Beasley, OLB/DE Clemson. The 49ers need a lot of things. They need to figure out their offensive line situation, they need to replace Justin Smith, they need to think if Aldon Smith is in their plans and they need defensive talent regardless. Beasley is a best player available pick and allows them to move Aldon Smith or Ahmad Brooks to fill another need.

16. Houston: Jalen Strong, WR Arizona State. It’s him or a RB here. The pick of a WR has a slight edge because of the release of Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins needs a running mate.

17. San Diego: Shane Ray, OLB/DE Missouri. They like Melvin Ingram and Jeremiah Attaochu. They just aren’t producing to a level that they’d like. Ray’s drop means San Diego’s gain.

18. Kansas City: Eric Kendricks, LB UCLA. Derrick Johnson is a top ILB when he’s healthy. The problem is that he’s 32 coming off of a major leg injury.

19. San Francisco 49ers (from Buffalo via Cleveland, Cleveland gets LB Aldon Smith and OT Jonathan Martin): Arik Armstead, DL Oregon. With Beasley in their pocket, the 49ers can rid themselves of Aldon Smith now instead of seeing him walk in free agency. Why would they swap Smith for (essentially) Beasley and Armstead? Beasley might be a weird dude (he once asked Dabo “Soybean Wind” Swinney to speak at the funeral of his turtle right after Old Soybean ranted at the team for bad, lazy practices) but he doesn’t have the gun and violence fetish that Smith does.

Buffalo’s 2nd rounder: Traded to Washington for Robert Griffin III. The Bills need a QB not named Tyrod Taylor. The Redskins, in this scenario, have Mettenberger to be the QB for whomever replaces Jay Gruden and can take another offensive lineman with this pick (Jeremiah Poutasi, OL Utah).

Buffalo’s 3rd round pick: Arie Kouandjio, OL Alabama. They want to be a power football team. Awesome, you need powerful offensive linemen to make that happen and his older brother is already in Buffalo.

20. Pittsburgh (from Philadelphia via Tennessee, Washington and St Louis, St Louis gets a 5th round pick to drop back 2 spots): Landon Collins, S Alabama. The Steelers rarely move up and when they do, its for a ready made starter. Collins has his flaws, but in that system could be great because it will hide his flaws.

21. Cincinnati: La’El Collins, OL LSU. Andrew Whitworth and Eric Winston are getting old. Collins allows them flexibility on the line. He can play Guard or right tackle and allows them to move Whitworth around.

22. St Louis (from Pittsburgh): Ereck Flowers, OT Miami. They would have preferred Landon Collins here, but Flowers works for them as well. He can play LG or RT and be Greg Robinson’s backstop at LT.

23. Detroit: Jake Fisher, OT Oregon. They need talent for the offensive line and Fisher’s stock is on the rise. Jordan Phillips could be the pick, but the thought of Fisher at RT or LT (with Reiff at RT) sounds too good to pass on.

24. Minnesota (from Arizona, Arizona gets Adrian Peterson and a 3rd round pick): Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin. And it finally happens. The Vikes and Peterson are headed for a divorce and the Cards are at the front of the line to make a deal. The Vikes like their in-house replacements but after trading the face of their franchise, they need a talent injection. Gordon might not be a 300 touches a year guy, but with their in house RBs, he doesn’t have to be.  

Arizona’s 2nd round pick:  Garrett Grayson, QB Colorado State. Logan Thomas is a TE playing at QB. Grayson needs work, but Arians can do that work.  

25. Jacksonville (from Carolina, Carolina gets the Jags’ 2nd round picks in 2015 and 2016): Todd Gurley, RB UGA. Local(ish) prospect? Big time talent? Will excite the fan base? SOLD!

Carolina’s 2nd round pick from Jacksonville: Ali Marpet, OT Hobart. The scouts/film dudes love this kid. He has the tools, is smart and looks the part of an NFL OT. The question is how he’ll do against big time competition.

26. Baltimore: DeVante Parker, WR Louisville. Steve Smith is on his last legs, Torrey Smith bolted for the Bay Area. They need a deep threat at WR immediately. Parker might not be a star player destined to be a #1 WR, but he’ll do well as a complementary piece.

27. Dallas: Ameer Abdullah, RB Nebraska. Is this a massive reach? Absolutely. They could deal back and still get him. When Jerry Jones loves a kid, he doesn’t care that it's a major reach and he's had two hits with Travis Frederick and Zach Martin. With Murray gone and the Ice Sculpture known as a Darren McFadden at RB, they need a guy to eventually take over from him. And by eventually, this author means “week 8.”

28. Denver: Andrus Peat, OT Stanford. After losing Zane Beadles and Orlando Franklin in successive Marchs, the Broncos need a right side lineman to keep Peyton Manning upright. Peat has his flaws, but as a RT he could be effective.

29. Indianapolis: Cam Erving, OL Florida State. If the Colts want to make a run for the next three seasons, they need to draft someone here who’s 1-ready to start and 2-fills an immediate need. OC is such a need and Erving is such a player.

30. Green Bay: Jordan Phillips, DL Oklahoma. No B.J. Raji, no Letroy Guion. The Pack need some beef inside the defense no matter how little Dom Capers likes players like that. Phillips is big and quick for his size. Consistency is a big issue though.

31. New Orleans (from Seattle): AJ Cann, OL South Carolina. A bit of a reach and they need a replacement for Jimmy Graham but there’s no point in putting more pressure on a kid taken in the first round. Cann is a good fit to replace Ben Grubbs: he can power block with the best of them in college and won’t make stupid mistakes.

Seattle’s 2nd round pick: Donovan Smith, OL Penn State. They’ve lost Max Unger and James Carpenter in one offseason. Getting offensive line talent is a priority for them. Smith is a bit stiff but can play.

32. Cleveland (from New England, New England gets Cleveland’s 1st round pick in 2016 and a 3rd in 2015): Brett Hundley, QB UCLA. They need a QB in the worst way, especially if they miss out on Mariota, Bradford and RG3. This is giving the Pats a high first next year (probably) but Hundley may be worth it. Also factoring into their decision is that the Redskins have an interest in Hundley and pick 2 spots from here.

New England’s 2nd round pick: Byron Jones, DB U-Conn. They honestly would have taken him at #32 if they stayed in this pick.

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About the author
Jon Fox
Just listen to Radiohead when you read my pieces and we will get along just fine.