An amazing thing happened at extraskater.com this past weekend, they added CHL stats! This is amazing because it gives non-NHL scouts the ability to delve a little deeper into the young men who will be joining NHL organizations this upcoming weekend, and helps us to better evaluate the impact these young men could potentially have.
So with the first round of the draft upcoming this Friday, let’s take a look again at the likely top five of the draft using these statistics.
| Player | GP | G | A | P | P/60 | PShr% | QoC eTOI% | QoT eTOI% |
| Sam Bennet | 57 | 23 | 33 | 56 | 3.5 | 73.7% | 30.7% | 33.7% |
| Leon Draisaitl | 64 | 22 | 34 | 56 | 2.9 | 91.8% | 31.0% | 34.6% |
| Sam Reinhart | 60 | 20 | 34 | 54 | 2.8 | 90.0% | 29.1% | 34.8% |
| Robby Fabbri | 58 | 30 | 26 | 56 | 3.4 | 71.8% | 30.5% | 33.3% |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | 63 | 27 | 29 | 56 | 3.2 | 70.9% | 31.7% | 34.8% |
Aaron Ekblad is noticeably absent from the chart, and for good reason. He is the best defenseman in this draft and he will go top 3 no matter what. He is an exceptional talent and putting him in this chart is unnecessary.
The second thing to notice about this chart is that it focuses only on even strength points, the reason for this is that this is a stronger indicator in a lot of ways because it eliminates the idea of the power play specialist, and focuses in on the best performances at even strength, a much more difficult time to accumulate points.
The third thing to notice, the Quality of teammate and Quality of competition numbers are just estimates, and thus you cannot place too much relevance on these stats. Though they do show some interesting things in regards to Sam Reinhart apparently playing easier competition than the rest of the names mentioned.
Looking at this table, the most important categories seem to be EV P/60, which measures the point scoring rate of the prospect per 60 minutes of ice time and the PShr%, which measures the percentage of on ice goals that the prospect had a hand in statistically.
Who Stands Out
Based on all scouting reports we can assume the top 3 forwards in this year’s draft are Leon Draisaitl, Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett. Honing in on these three players first:
Sam Bennett: We see that Bennett is the star of the group in terms of P/60. His 3.5 P/60 leads all draft eligible players in the CHL and is truly impressive. This is P/60 at even strength and gives a great indicator of his strong even strength ability. He was not padding points on the power play but rather was making it happen consistently at even strength. He absolutely blows both Draisaitl and Reinhart out of the water in this regard. There is some context to consider though, as the OHL is a typically higher scoring league than the WHL. Nonetheless this is an impressive stat for Bennett, and with him being more than 6 months younger than both Reinhart and Draisaitl, this stat becomes even more impressive.
Leon Draisaitl: Leon’s numbers need to be considered in regards to his team. He was not on a high scoring team, and he was basically on his own in terms of high end teammates. This is illuminated very well by his PShr%, a whopping 91.8%. This statistic shows us that if the Raiders were scoring and Leon was on the ice, he was almost always involved if not the driving force of that goal. Draisaitl has the advantage of size in comparison to the other two top centers, he is bigger, stronger, and plays more of a control game. His P/60 is far lower than Bennett, but his team scored far fewer goals as a whole.
Sam Reinhart: Like Leon, Reinhart has a far lower P/60 than Bennett. However he was also in the lower scoring WHL, and like Leon was a driving force on the ice. His PShr% of 90.0% is just shy of Leon’s and far higher than Bennetts (73.7%). Reinhart plays a cerebral game, he is the smartest player on the ice when he is on the ice. The benefit of this is that he doesn’t suffer from poor decision making, he is adaptable, and he will likely learn the intricacies of the NHL at a far more efficient rate. The damning statistic for Reinhart is the QoC eTOI% of 29.1%. This is just an estimate, but nonetheless it is far less impressive than both Bennett and Draisaitl. However, as it is just an estimate, not much weight can be placed on this.
Whose the Guy?
Assuming Aaron Ekblad goes number one (and it is looking more and more like he will) the Buffalo Sabres will be getting a great centre at #2 overall. It is such a close call between these three guys that it will likely come down to internal needs. If the Sabres want size they will take Draisaitl, if they want explosive, gritty determination it will be Bennett, and if they want to draft the smartest player it will be Reinhart. Regardless of which direction they go, the Sabres will be getting a high quality prospect. None of these guys appear to be the level of Nathan MacKinnon, but they are still elite prospects with fantastic potential.
The Oilers sit at third overall, and with their need of size in the top 6 being obvious to everyone, they are likely hoping and praying that Leon Draisaitl falls to them at #3. The fact that their need for size in the top 6 is known around the league, makes you wonder if the Sabres or Panthers might try to convince the Oilers to trade an asset to move up and ensure they get Draisaitl. This would be a mistake though, because even if the first two picks are Ekblad and Draisaitl, the Oilers will be left to choose between Bennett and Reinhart, and they will be getting a very good young player.
The Other Guys
The other two guys in the table are Nikolaj Ehlers and Robby Fabbri, added simply because of their impressive P/60 numbers. These two young men are more than likely going to be picked in the 5-10 range, but their numbers are curious nonetheless.
Nikolaj Ehlers: Ehlers was the CHL Rookie of the year, and looking at his P/60 of 3.2 it is hard not to see why. Ehlers is explosive, the best skater in the draft and has something most speedsters lack…hands. He can finish, and with his speed this makes him an extremely valuable asset. We won’t truly know how great of a player he is until next season (because his teammate Jonathan Drouin will be moving to the NHL) but all arrows are pointing towards a fantastic young player that may become one of the best of this draft class.
Robby Fabbri: Fabbri is another interesting case, his P/60 of 3.4 is very impressive and is second best to Sam Bennett in the entire CHL for draft eligible players. This should be a point of interest for fans of teams picking in the 5-10 range, and it wouldn’t be surprising whatsoever if the Toronto Maple Leafs walk away with Fabbri. He is not as well rounded, and the lack of overall quality of play keeps him from the top of the draft, but Fabbri is a very good young player. If he can continue to round out his game, he will become a good player in the NHL.
Interesting Tidbit
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of these stats comes when you look at the entire CHL. Filtering for all of the young players from age 16 to age 20, and going to P/60 the name at the top of the list is shocking. Connor McDavid leads the way with a P/60 of 3.9…at age 16. This young man is the class of the entire CHL and it’s not even close. He is not draft eligible until next season, but if he takes another leap in his draft eligible year (which you expect he would), McDavid could be the best player drafted since the likes Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Steven Stamkos, and Alex Ovechkin. McDavid looks more and more like the next generational talent. Whoever is drafting first overall next season will be getting the gift of the century. It’ll be interesting to see how bottom feeding teams handle this off-season, and if there is a lack of attempt to improve, it is most certainly because they are eyeing McDavid for the 2015 NHL Draft.
Wrap Up
The top of this draft is very interesting, the degree of seperation is not evident whatsoever. Bennett dominates in P/60, but Reinhart and Draisaitl make up for it with the PShr%. The PShr% indicates just how important Draisaitl and Reinhart were in their teams scoring, while Bennett's P/60 shows just how dominant of an even strength player he was. It's going to be fun to look how this shakes out, but it is becoming more and more obvious that this years top of the draft will be more about team need, than it will be about clear cut elite picks. The top of the draft is simply too close to call.