All good things must come to an end, and so it is that we reach the end of the Spring Classics with the 100th edition of Liège-Bastogne-Liège on Sunday. This is a major turning point in the cycling calendar as focus shifts away from Belgium, moving south towards next month’s Giro d’Italia. But things aren’t as clear cut as that, and if there’s a one day race that will allow the GC men to shine, it’s La Doyenne.
The Route
As with the other two races in Ardennes week, Liège-Bastogne-Liège is all about the climbs. But the climbs that the race seeks out on the return leg from Bastogne are longer than anything the riders have tackled in the Amstel Gold Race and Flèche Wallone, and are also steep, even if they can’t quite match the Mur de Huy.
After a lumpy, but not overly testing, first two-thirds of the race, the climbing really starts at 95km to go with the triumvirate of climbs around the town of Stavelot: the Côte de Wanne, Côte de Stockeu, and Côte de la Haute-Levée. However with the finish still over the horizon, the action should be at the back of the peloton rather than at the front, as the whittling down process begins.
The action should begin on the legendary Côte de la Redoute with 45km remaining. 2km at 8.9% (pitching up to over 17% in places), as well as causing more carnage at the back, the Redoute could provide a launching pad for a long range attack, either from a lesser favourite, or from a teammate of one of the big names as team tactics begin to come into play.
We may have to wait until 20km to go and the Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons for the favourites to show their hands. 1.5km at 9.3%, this is a tough climb, but the fact that it comes after 243km might make it suited to the freshest rider, rather than the best climber. The urban climb of the Côte de Saint-Nicholas is the final obstacle, and could well spell the end for the tired legs of any lone attacker.
A sting in the tail comes with the uphill final 1.5km towards the finish line in the Liège suburb of Ans. Last year this provided a launching pad for a Joaquim Rodriguez attack, before a perfectly timed counter from Dan Martin saw the Irishman seal the win.
The Contenders
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) - The Spaniard has enjoyed a fantastic first third of the season, with no fewer than seven victories so far this year, including Wednesday’s Flèche Wallone building on a strong fourth place at Amstel Gold. Clearly Valverde is in excellent form, and with a strong sprint in his back pocket it will be up to the other favourites to remove the 34-year-old from the equation well before the finish line.
Dan Martin (Garmin-Sharp) - After pulling out of Amstel Gold with knee pain, the Irishman’s Ardennes campaign appeared to hang in the balance. However the Garmin-Sharp rider came back strongly with second place at Flèche Wallonne despite being poorly positioned at 10km to go. The defending champion, Martin is seeking to become the first man to two consecutive editions of Liège-Bastogne-Liège since Michele Bartoli in 1997 and 1998, but with a strong team including Tom-Jelte Slagter, Ryder Hesjedal, Alex Howes, and Nathan Haas, Garmin-Sharp will always have other cards to play.
Michael Kwiatkowski (Omega Pharma-Quickstep) - Inexperience showed for the young Pole at Flèche Wallone, as he launched too early on the Mur de Huy, being caught first by Dan Martin, and then by Alejandro Valverde. However Kwiatkowski is clearly in great form, and providing he can cope with the distance, should have the legs to be in contention for the win so long as he can keep his powder dry for the final 20 km.
Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) - The Italian continued his quiet start to the season with 52nd and 14th at Amstel Gold and Flèche Wallone respectively, but will find Sunday’s race much more suited to his strengths. Nibali’s previous strong performance in Liège-Bastogne-Liège came in 2012, when he was targeting the Tour de France, and with the Tour also on his schedule this year, perhaps we will see the Giro winner in the mix, even if his poor sprint means he will have to arrive alone if he is to win.
Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) - The Katusha man has twice finished on second in this race, including last year where his late attack was overhauled by a rampaging Dan Martin. After crashing in Amstel Gold, Rodriguez hasn’t had the best preparation, although he did the same last year and still produced a good result. With the Giro on the horizon in May, he may be holding back his form, but at the age of 34 Rodriguez is running out of opportunities for victory in Liège-Bastogne-Liège.
Bauke Mollema (Belkin) - With Robert Gesink taking time away from competition to deal with a heart condition, Belkin will increasingly turn to Mollema for results when the road goes up. And the Dutchman has been delivering so far, with seventh and fourth in Amstel Gold and Flèche Wallone. Like Nibali, Mollema’s poor sprint means he will have to attack early to drop the likes of Valverde before the finish.
Philippe Gilbert (BMC) - If there’s one man in the peloton who knows these roads like the back of his hand, it’s Philippe Gilbert. The Belgian lives in the town of Aywaille, a stone’s throw from the Côte de la Redoute, so should receive plenty support from the locals, who are sure to be excited following their man’s crushing win in Amstel Gold. However this year’s Liège-Bastogne-Liège includes more climbing than the race Gilbert won in 2011, meaning that he will have to work hard to stay with the climbers.
Chris Froome (Team Sky) - Given that this will only be Froome’s third race of the season, it’s difficult to judge what sort of form he will bring to the start line in Liège. Certainly the parcours should suit the Brit, even if he might prefer longer climbs, and he was in the mix last year until mechanical problems put him out of contention.
Jelle Vanendert (Lotto-Belisol) - After a barren 2013, Jelle Vanendert appears to have rediscovered the form which saw him take three top 10s in the Ardennes week back in 2012. After a quiet first few months of the season, the Belgian played on his diminished reputation to take second place in Amstel Gold and sixth in Flèche Wallone. Having only once finished outside the top 30 at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Vanendert certainly knows how to be in contention in this race.