Stage 19: Maubourguet Pays du Val d’Adour – Bergerac 208.5km

After three tough days in the Pyrenees, the vast majority of the peloton will be looking forward to flat roads as the 2014 Tour leaves the mountains behind. However this will be no procession and at over 200km could have an influence on who will do well in the following day’s time trial.

If nothing else this should be a scenic stage with photographers hoping to capture wide-angle shots of the peloton and fields of sunflowers, while animal rights activists might want to look away as this is region is renowned for its foie gras. As for the peloton they will be hoping to enjoy the sunshine, at least until the slightly tricky final 25km.

As the race enters the Dordogne, the land begins to rise and fall; all big ring stuff. That is until the fourth category Côte de Monbazillac with 14km to go. 1.3km at 7.6%, but ramps up to over 15%. With only two days to go, there will be a number of  teams looking to salvage their Tour with a stage win, so expect plenty of attacks to put the sprinters in trouble.

Importantly the roads over the top of the climb are narrow, meaning that a chase could be hard to organise, at least until the final 8km on wide roads towards the finish in Bergerac. If we do see a bunch sprint then the run-in is fairly straight-forward with 90 degree bends at 900m and 700m before the final drag-race to the line.

Rider to Watch: Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing)

For such an experienced rider it is a surprise that this will only be Greg Van Avermaet’s second Tour de France. However the Belgian hasn’t been spending every July with his feet up, but has instead usually been busy dominating the Tour de Wallonie, a race which he has won twice in the last three years, and which largely consists of climbs of the nature of the Côte de Monbazillac.

Since his excellent second place in the Tour of Flanders in April, Van Avermaet has been fairly quiet as he recovered from an intense classics seasons, but was in good enough form to take third on a hilly stage of June’s Tour of Belgium. He was also climbing fairly well at the Criterium du Dauphiné, finishing in a group with the GC favourites on the stage into Gap, and making his way into the break for the queen stage.

Van Avermaet comes as part of a strong BMC team designed to deliver Tejay Van Garderen to a high GC placing. However if the America fails to perform in the third week then the team could find themselves facing the prospect of reaching Paris with nothing to show for their efforts. If this is the case then Van Avermaet could offer the team’s best option to capture a stage.

Stage 20: Bergerac – Périgueux 54km (ITT)

Another picturesque day as the penultimate stage of the race makes its way across the rolling vineyards of the Dordogne. However there will be no time for the GC men to enjoy the scenery in this long test against the clock that will cement the overall standings before the next day’s parade around Paris.

A quick glance at the stage profile might suggest that this is a hilly time trial, but in reality these rises in the terrain are little more than false flats, and are nothing to disrupt the rhythm of decent time triallist. The only exception is the Côte de Coulounieix towards the end of the stage, which rises at 6% for 1.5km, and could see fresher riders open up a few seconds advantage.

The run towards the line in Périgueux are on wide roads with sweeping bends, including a couple of kilometres along the Avenue Winston Churchill – a sign that the stage could crown a British victor?

Rider to Watch: Tony Martin (Omega Pharma-Quickstep)

With this long time trial coming hot on the heels of a tough few days in the Pyrenees, the GC favourites will be suffering from the fatigue of three weeks hard racing. This stage therefore looks to be one for the specialists, who would’ve enjoyed the mountains from the middle of the grupetto, and maybe sat up at 20km to go yesterday in order to rest their legs in preparation.

If we’re looking at the specialists then it’s hard to look far beyond Tony Martin. The Omega Pharma-Quickstep rider has been as dominant as ever against the clock, most recently taking the national championships and both time trial stages of the Tour de Suisse on his way to fourth place overall. These may have been shorter tests than the Tour’s 54km behemoth, but Martin also has a proven track record in longer time trials, such as his dominant performance in the 58km World Championships last year.

Of course a lot can happen in three weeks and if Martin suffers a crash or injury earlier in the race then these could prove a serious problem over such a long time trial. If this is the case then expect the likes of Fabian Cancellara (Trek Factory Racing) and Tom Dumoulin (Giant-Shimano) to be ready to take the stage win.

Stage 21: Évry – Paris Champs-Élysées 137.5km

After three weeks and over 3,600km of racing we final reach Paris to crown the winner of the Tour de France. As usual we have a start in an anonymous Parisian suburb before a couple of hours of champagne sipping and general larking about as the peloton cruises towards the centre of Paris. Thankfully we will be entertained with A.S.O’s new ‘La Course by Le Tour de France’, a 90km criterium on the Champs-Élysées that will be contested by some of the world’s top female racers.

After the success of last year’s final stage, the Tour will once again make use of the entire length of the Champs-Élysées, lapping the Arc de Triomphe, before rushing back down towards the Place de la Concorde. However this year’s race will not repeat last year’s dusk finish, but is expected to finish around 7pm.

If the fight for the green jersey is close then we could see the main sprinters emerge from the pack to contest the intermediate sprint with 46km to go, but if not expect them to remain firmly ensconced before an almighty charge up the Rue de Rivoli towards the most celebrated flat finish in the world of cycling.

Riders to Watch: Sacha Modolo (Lampre-Merida)

Outside the ‘big four’ sprinters of Cavendish, Kittel, Greipel, and Sagan, Sacha Modolo seems the most likely rider to be able to challenge for the most important sprinters’ finish of the year.

The Italian has been in decent form at the Tour de Suisse, taking a stage win and two more top ten finishes before abandoning on the final stage to Saas Fee while sitting second in the points classification behind Peter Sagan. However this result was achieved while part of a team centred around Rui Costa, while Lampre’s Tour squad will also contain Davide Cimolai and Maximiliano Richeze, two good sprinters in their own right who could provide Modolo with guidance through the final kilometre.

Having only stepped up to World Tour level this year, the 2014 Tour de France will be Modolo’s first, so perhaps inexperience may prevent him from competing in the first week. However by this stage in the race we should see Modolo at the centre of proceedings, and maybe providing a shock result on the Champs-Élysées.

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