For over a decade these two titans of Spanish tennis have been competing hard at it on all surfaces, but their most memorable & riveting contests have come on the clay. As much as Rafael Nadal is the King of Clay and is so dominant in this match-up on the surface, Ferrer does often push him fairly close. That is a testament to David Ferrer as a player and his ability, in his mind, to continuously put the agony of losing long rallies to Nadal behind him. Something many players are incapable of doing against the great man really, overcoming adversity. Being able to reset your mind, start again with that blank canvas for the match, it has served him so well in his career and is in this writer's opinion, the catalyst behind why he has been able to maximise his talent and his game.
Ferrer's adjustment to close the gap between the two in the match on clay:
With every time Ferrer's failed against Rafa on clay, he has learned a better habit for putting together the right combination of shots in pattern for winning points against him. It's pretty obvious you have to do your best to find his backhand, but what is not obvious is how it is best to go about doing that. It has to be done in a subtle way that means Nadal won't predict you are going to it. It's often something that is not remarked on enough, because everybody's blown away by the forehand, but Nadal's reading of the game on a clay court is exceptional, so you have to deal with not only that lefty heavy topspin forehand, but also chess court savvy. Ferrer though has a lot of clay court savvy too, as like most Spaniards on the dirt, I mean let's be honest, the redness of the clay is from the blood these Spaniards have been dripping throughout these years in all the playing and competing. He's learned his best to do as much as he can to tame one of the best shots tennis has ever seen and get at the weaker backhand side. That sort of ideal construction that's needed.
Statistical Evidence:
If you want data evidence that Ferrer is indeed closing the gap in the match-up between himself and Rafa, you only have to look at matches between them in the last few years. The "best way" for him to play Rafa comes to him much more subconsciously nowadays. He has a way for playing other players, and a way for playing Rafa. He should have beaten Rafa here in 2011, and he did beat him here in 2014.
Conclusion & Prediction:
Of course Rafa has had a tough start to the season since his come back from a long term injury and its naturally going to take him time to get back to the elite level he was playing at. His forehand hasn't been where it was in terms of heaviness, depth or angle and if Rafa continues that trend here and drops the ball short in the center of the court, Ferrer will run around these balls and take forehands early and on the rise giving Nadal less time in terms of preparation for the next shot. Ferrer is in a much better rhythm with his baseline game as he's just come from playing one of the modern era's great counter punchers, Gilles Simon. Nadal on the other hand came from playing Isner who doesn't give you a rhythm from the baseline and the returning is much different when you play him. Nadal has played Ferrer many times and will know what to expect, but will the muscle memory make that adjustment? This writer does not think it will, and this writer does think David, the road-runner, Ferrer, will indeed capitalise. He has the belief now he can beat Rafa on this surface, there is no reputation hurdle or barrier to overcome, no more mental glitch.
Prediction: David Ferrer in three sets.