With all the talk going to big-name stars like Jon Lester and Max Scherzer, it's not to shocking to see pitchers like Justin Masterson slip through the cracks. Luckily for him, he has been getting some attention lately so finding a team should be relativity easy. Masterson had a very up-and-down 2014 after having his statistically second best season of his career in 2013, so it will be interesting to see which Masterson shows up for the 2015 season and which teams are willing to take the risks.
Masterson was drafted in 2006 to the Boston Red Sox with the 27th pick in the second round. He quickly rose through the system and was named one of the team’s best prospects in 07, and it only took until late 2008 for Masterson to see some action, appearing in 36 games, mostly out of the pen. It wouldn’t be until his trade to the Cleveland Indians in 2009 that he’d start to see some significant time as a starter, though.
Masterson had a pretty rough 2014, with his few ups overshadowed by his downs. We’ll start with the most worrying issues for Masterson: an increase in hard hit average and an increase in walks. The hard hit rate is worrisome, but for more than the obvious reason you would think. Masterson’s line drive rate has been on the rise since 2011, when he had an 18.2%, before taking a dip in 2013 to 17.8% and hitting a career high of 20.3% in 2014. Interestingly enough though, 2011 is when Masterson started to pitch as a regular starter and in the 2 years he was a bullpen pitcher, he had a 15.1% average line drive rate. The line drive rate has been on the rise for a few years now, but the HR/FB has been rather erratic. Using the same time frame as we did with the line drive rate, 2011-2014, he’s had a HR/FB rate of 6.3%, 11.4%, 10.7%, and 14.6%. Averaging that out, we get roughly 10.75% HR/FB rate as a starter, a figure that puts him about average with the league average for the last 6 years.
Masterson has been a very solid strikeout pitcher throughout his career. He owns a 19.3% career strikeout rate and averaging a K/9 of 7.53, both of which are very stable and above average. Despite last year's hiccup, Masterson has had a rather stable HR/FB over his career, with roughly 10.5% of his fly balls making it over the fence and only allowing a 0.71 career HR/9. His velocity has been fairly consistent throughout his career, with his only drop being around 2 MPH in velocity to his fastball in 2014.
As stated before, the negative trends are alarming and numerous. The walks are coming more often and have been on the rise since his days in Boston. While his strikeout numbers are fine, he is getting hit more often, something which could be pinned on his control issues. If he falls behind, he starts throwing over the plate more often and that makes him more hittable. Last year's rise in HR/FB rate is something to look, even if he’s trending down in fly ball rate. When it comes to consistency, he has no benchmark and has had just as many good years as bad, but the randomness of them make him a giant wildcard for any staff.
It’s hard to say what he will get, since we have seen his productivity in 2014 is down and many of his numbers are trending negatively. His last contract was a 1-year, $9.8 million deal and whilst he is unlikely to earn this kind of money again next season, a 2-year deal at $10 million would be a safe bet. However Masterson would want some security with any deal he makes, so a 3-4 year deal wouldn’t be out of the question and, as for money, somewhere near $15-25 million would be more likely.
Now the question remains as to which teams are the most likely to sign him?
Baltimore Orioles: The team has needs to fill that are more important than signing Masterson, but he is an option. He could fit well in Baltimore, as well being a nice anchor for a young team, and a big field could cut down on the home runs.
Boston Red Sox: Boston seems to be trying to gather its old players back, and Masterson could be a nice fit in a weakened rotation. Boston has spent a lot of money on offense so far and hasn’t been really focused on adding arms for the staff, but much like Baltimore, he would help a realtively young team.
New York Yankees: They need all the pitching they can get. Not a great fit in that stadium, but that won’t stop the team trying to sign him.
Chicago White Sox: Chicago seems to be making a push to fill the void that the Royals are going to leave. More pitching will make a big difference for the team and Masterson could get a larger contract from this team than others. White Sox are trying to build a winner and this could make them overpay.
Cleveland Indians: Traded him away in the past, but that doesn’t mean he’d be a bad fit. The main issue is that other teams will be willing to pay the big contract required.
Detroit Tigers: This team will always need pitching, and with Scherzer on the market, Masterson can fill a void. Not the void that will be left by Scherzer potentially leaving, but he’s better than nothing. The Tigers have money and considering the struggles they’ve had with pitching, they will be willing to spend.
Miami Marlins: Until the Stanton signing and the trades they’ve been making, the Marlins weren't an option. But it looks like the team is truly ready to step up its game and make a run, and a good veteran like Masterson could help. Not an ideal situation for Masterson, but if Miami pulls more money out of that hollowed out tree they have in the Everglades, he’ll sign.
New York Mets: While offense is the Mets' major issue, another strong pitcher to help take pressure of Matt Harvey and Jacob DeGrom will help. Masterson’s weaknesses could be easier to manage in a big stadium like New York’s, so it wouldn’t be a bad match.
Chicago Cubs: With Theo Epstein, Masterson’s old GM in Boston, at the helm, it could work. Not a good stadium for him at all, but again, this could be a money thing for Masterson in the end.
Milwaukee Brewers: Much like many teams on this list, pitching is the major issue they have and will need to fill it fast if they want to try and repeat what they did last year. Well, at least try to.
