First base is often considered the deepest of all fantasy positions since the wealth of talent is, well, deep.  While this assessment has a grain of truth, it’s also not 100% true.  First base has a lot of big names that are one-stat guys, and the number of well-rounded players is actually kind of shallow the further from the top it gets. Out of the top 10 first baseman in offensive WAR in 2014, only four had batting averages over .275 but on the flipside. Only one, though, didn’t have at least 25 homeruns.  First base is the power position and is a good place to get that oh-so-important home run stat filled out.

1. Paul Goldschmidt

2015 Prediction: .303/.370/.540, HR-25, RBI-90, R-70, SB-10

Goldschmidt is that all-around player that every team dreams about, and it’s no wonder that when he busted out in 2013, the expectations for him were set pretty high.  Sadly, injuries cut his season short, but he was on pass to have another very impressive season.  He’s going to be going in the first round, so if you want him plan accordingly.

2. Jose Abreu

2015 Predictions: .270/.330/.570, HR-40, RBI-90, R-80, SB-1

Few players caused such a lightning storm of media attention for all the RIGHT reasons last year like Jose Abreu did. With some of the best raw power in the Majors, Abreu rewarded fantasy believers with some absolutely insane numbers in 2014. He ended last season with a RC+ of 165 and a wOBA of .411, which put him on top of all other first baseman in those categories. However, he does have a downside. The possibility for regression is VERY high with this guy. How much regression, though, isn’t as easy to predict; it can be very easy to discredit what he did as just luck.  Like Goldschmidt, Abreu is likely a first-round pick, but unlike Goldy, any manager considering Abreu should be 100% sure to believe in his talent and be willing to take on any regression. The risk could well be worth the reward.

3. Miguel Cabrera

2015 Predictions: .320/.380/.520, HR-30, RBI-110, R-90, SB-0

Oh how the comments are going to pour after this one.  They’ll read something like, “What?! Cabrera is WAY better than both Abreu and Goldschmidt!” or “You can’t be serious that you’re afraid of what Cabrera did last year?” Well, honestly, in this fantasy writer’s opinion, the answer for one is the answer for both. Cabrera is on the downward side of 30, and his skill will start to degrade at some point; no player has beaten time so far.  In no way was 2014 was a bad year for anyone not named Miguel Cabrera, but since we are talking about the Triple Crown winner here, the standards are set very high. A higher strikeout rate and lowered walk rate may make one wonder if that age regression we see plaguing Albert Pujols is going to start affecting Cabrera soon. A smart manager will have no doubts that Cabrera will be amazing again, but a good manager doesn’t expect another Triple Crown.

4. Anthony Rizzo

2015 Predictions: .270/.370/.520, HR-33, RBI-90, R-80, SB-2

One of the younger players on this list is also the one that most analysts, including this one, find the most intriguing when it comes to fantasy. Rizzo has shown not only power throughout his admittedly short career but a propensity to take a walk, giving him the ability to maintain not only a good SLG but a very strong OBP as well. While the average will likely come down since he did have a BABIP of almost 50 points from his career totals in 2014, the OBP is quite sustainable. Rizzo's ability to hit 30 homers coupled with the revamped Cubs lineup means RBI’s could come easier for this rising star. Rizzo is easily worth a third-round pick if he is available, but it may be better to get him towards the back end if at all possible.

5. Edwin Encarnacion

2015 Predictions: .266/.350/.580, HR-38, RBI-105, R-70, SB-0

For years, scouts and analysts talked about how good Encarnacion was going to be when he matured. Seven years after he got his call up, they are finally vindicated. The 2014 season was a little frustrating for Encarnacion fantasy owners since he went on an unprecedented tear mid-season only to drop off like he fell off the Grand Canyon. Overall, though, the key to Encranacion is improved pitch selection and limited strikeouts to a far more manageable level than his early years, which could lead to an increased walk rate as well.

When drafting Encarnacion, however, a manager is looking for his power and not his ability to get on base, but that is a nice perk. With some amazing raw power and great bat speed, a 40-homer season is not out of the question. In a draft, no one should be too surprised to see Encarnacion go before Rizzo, and if a manager feels more comfortable doing it, then more power to him. Though any manager that does draft Encarnacion must understand that this first baseman has had issues with injuries in the past. Last year was a very injury-prone season for him, so take that into account.

6. Prince Fielder

2015 Predictions: .270/.340/.500, HR-32, RBI-100, R-70, SB-0

The 2014 season was a disaster for the once great home run hitter, but if there is any stadium a fantasy owner would want Fielder to hit in, it is The Ballpark in Arlington. To judge Fielder off his 2014 numbers wouldn’t be fair, so this is more based on his history. After sitting out the majority of 2014 with a budging disk in his neck, something he has played with since 2012, a bounce back is not out of the question. At only 30, Fielder is not likely to start regressing with many of his numbers, but we still do not know how recovered he is or how comfortable he is with swinging after his surgery. Fielder is a great buy-low candidate since many people will not willingly take a shot on him. Managers who draft him, though, need to remember what the downside of Fielder can be.

7. Adrian Gonzalez

2015 Predictions: .290/.350/.470, HR-25, RBI-100, R-70, SB-2

Even with a down year last year compared to his normal slash line, Gonzalez once again proved to be a solid fantasy option. His power numbers were the best he has had since 2011 when he was with the Boston Red Sox. With his age of 32, there isn’t much reason to believe he will have another surprising power outage like he did in 2012. Gonzalez is a very solid all-around package where first baseman are concerned. A solid slash line, solid power, and a solid team make him an attractive name for managers to look into.

8. Albert Pujols

2015 Predictions: .268/.330/.510, HR-28, RBI-100, R-80, SB-2

He may not be the machine he was back in St. Louis, but Pujols is still a solid first base fantasy option. Pujols was able to limit the strikeouts and work the zone better than his first few seasons in Anaheim, which lead to better power numbers overall.  The down side is his bat speed has slowed down quite a bit, making him more susceptible to faster pitching, and  it forces him to cheat if he thinks a fastball is coming. This will hurt his slash line a bit, but, in the end, the power will still be there. With Mike Trout in front of him, Pujols will get his RBI chances. Pujols marks where first baseman start to fall off in value, and Pujols looks more like a fifth-round pick than the first-round man we are used to seeing.

9. Lucas Duda

2015 Predictions: .260/.350/.500, HR-30, RBI-90, R-75, SB-3

There are probably many people out there wondering why -- of all people -- Lucas Duda ranks so high on this list. How could he be better and ahead of players like Adam LaRoache, Mike Napoli, or even Brandon Moss? Well, really, last year all four of these guys were the same player: good OBP, weaker average and very good power. Duda, however, did something that no one else did: he hit 30 homeruns and drove in over 90 runs. In addition,  there is the added bonus that Duda is only 29 while the rest of the players listed are in their late 30’s and are on the decline.

Duda is starting to make strides in his strikeout rate , getting it to 22.7% in 2014, and keeping a decent walk rate of 11.6%. While that is not great, it is also not bad for a guy that has 30-homerun power.  Duda is going to go over looked in drafts since he has had a rough career so far, but his power numbers warrant a look from managers.

10. Freddie Freeman

2015 Predictions: .290/.350/.490, HR-20, RBI-80, R-60, SB-2

Freeman is a great young player in the prime of his career. He is a good value for fantasy players since he will not cost a manager a high pick for some solid numbers. The problem with Freeman is he is not a big power threat when compared to the rest of the players he is up against. Out of the top 10 first baseman with at least 500 PA’s, he was dead last in homeruns with only 18 while the next person up had 25.

Freeman also tends to swing and miss a little too often for someone that is not making it up with more power. The walks are good, but that does not mean too much when has little behind him to knock him in. Freeman is a solid pick, but he should not be the one a manager guns for since his numbers will pale even to the guys underneath him. Expect some growth in his personal totals of home runs, batting average, OBP, etc., but the odds of him being a major numbers producer are low.

Stock Rising/Falling

Stock Rising

Anthony Rizzo -- Rizzo is on a developing team that keeps adding more and more strength around him, so what was a good career is starting to look more like an All Star career.

Brandon Belt -- After having back-to-back strong seasons in 2012 and 2013, many thought 2014 was the year that we would finally see Belt break out. Unfortunately for many Belt believers, a number of injuries hampered his 2014 and limited him to 61 games. Holes in his swing started to develop, and those holes were exploited toward the end of 2013 and  the beginning of 2014, but that problem was nothing that he could not overcome. This coming season could be that breakout year for the San Francisco Giants first baseman if he can overcome his pull-only tendencies.

Matt Adams -- With concerns of his job security out of the way, Adams now has the job all to himself.  He has shown signs of a power swing and the ability to make solid contact to keep the average at a good level. Unfortunately, he also falls into that same category as Freeman in that he does not hit for enough power to justify a 21.0% strikeout rate and a miserable 4.6% walk rate. Adams has a lot of talent, and 2015 could be another strong season for him if he can improve his walk and strikeout rate.

Stock Falling

Albert Pujols -- His age and declining bat speed make for a bad combo. While the power will be around for a few more years, his contact rate will cause all his numbers to go down in time. While not likely an issue this year or maybe even next year, he is not a keeper option anymore.

Joey Votto- This once bright fantasy star has dimmed quite a bit in so little time. The once arguably a first-round pick has now become a good average guy but with inconsistent pop in his bat. The biggest recent issue with Votto is injures, which limited him to only 62 games last season. With power struggles and a declining lineup around him, Votto’s value just keeps getting hit harder and harder. He is still draft worthy , but he is a one-stat pony, and that just does not warrant the pick he was worth only three years ago.

Justin Morneau -- With an abundance of injuries in recent years, Morneau has become very inconsistent. Last year, Morneau had a great comeback season but still missed significant time due to injuries. At only 33 , Morneau still could be useful for at least two more seasons, but with injuries always a concern, it could be just one or less adding up all the games in which he will actually play.

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