Many out there have probably read our Top First Baseman fantasy article, so most people would know who were the top picks on that list, but what few would know is the major edit that came before being published and that edit was taking first base eligible Victor Martinez off the list and replacing him with Lucas Duda. Martinez recently suffered a tear to his meniscus in his right knee and will be out for 4-6 weeks; the average recovery time for an injury such as this. This means he’s going to miss time in spring a little into the season, but should be ready about 2 weeks into the season. So what makes him drop off a list completely? First let's look at his career numbers and then see why, at least in fantasy, this is an issue.
Throughout his career Martinez has been a model of consistency when healthy of course. Since 2005 Martinez has only once dropped his average below .300 and that was due to an injury shortened year only playing 73 games. He’s also never had a season where his OBP dropped below .330 and for reference the average OBP for the MLB for the last 6 years is .322. His walk rate has never been more that 2% lower than his strikeout rate and that has never been above 12.5% and again the MLB average is sitting at 19%.
There are a lot of positives to Martinez and what he does, but we also have to remember what he is and not what he did in 2014. Focusing on one seasons worth of stats is not the smartest idea in fantasy when the subject in question is nearing 37 years of age. The major sign of regression in power comes from his HR/FB ratio and in 2014 Martinez had a 16.0% ratio and that is a full 6% over his career HR/FB ratio. Even more eye opening is that’s more than double the HR/FB he had back in 2012 and 2013, so it doesn’t seem like he could keep that up. His 2012-2013 numbers seem far closer to a man who’s aging and losing some pop in his bat than his 2014 numbers.
So, why is that injury so concerning? As we just saw the power should be in regression next year and with that comes less value fantasy wise. We could also make the assumption that he could start falling off in other areas as well like batting average and on base which would further hurt his value. Now we add an injury that will not only affect his power since he needs those knees healthy to generate the torque but it could affect his speed and that will limit the number of RBI’s and R’s Martinez could get. Let's also not forget the fact that a preexisting injury now raises the risk of him being hurt again during the season and that could hurt his playing time. A safe assumption for Victor Martinez’s 2015 total could be somewhere in the realm of .300/.350/.450, HR-12, RBI-70, R-60, SB-0.
Let's say that this is the case and Martinez ends the season with the numbers projected. When it comes to fantasy those are good numbers but for where Martinez is going to go in drafts, there are plenty of better options that go later. The injury may not affect his play too much overall, and it’s a possibility that he recovers and plays fine. In fantasy the higher the pick the more certainty a manager is asking for and this injury throws far to many question marks for this writer's taste. High risk and medium rewards for a guy managers will need to take in the 5th round? While its certainly acceptable to draft guys you get “guaranteed” stats from but in the end taking Martinez will be like drafting Billy Butler just 3 rounds higher. This writer's opinion is to hold off and see if anyone else thinks he can repeat 2014; better to wind up with Lucas Duda, Billy Butler or Adam LaRoche than someone that may end up hurt most of the season.
