Outfield has changed quite a bit over the years in fantasy, going from the major source of power to the more speedy position. Fantasy-wise, this has hurt the positions' production overall and makes the top tier of outfield options far more interesting and sought-after. The current batch of outfielders seems to be more mixed, and there are more 15-25 home run hitters than there are 20-30. Speed is still relatively easy to find in and out of the top 10 outfields, and on this list, five of them are 20+ stolen-base runners.
The best strategy for outfield is to go power early and look for speed late. Since power hitting outfielders are harder to come by late in drafts, it’s a smart idea to stock up as many as you can early and let positions like shortstop bolster the stolen bases. It could be a wise move for fantasy owners to look at outfield if the first through third pick happens to land on them and grab what are arguably the best fantasy players in the game today. This list will be working a little differently than pervious lists since, on average, owners will need anywhere from three to five outfielders for a team. Given that this is going to be the top 20 outfielders in fantasy -- and before any readers freak out on what they just got themselves into -- it will be broken up into two parts.
Mike Trout
2015 Prediction: .285/.350/.550, HR-35, RBI-110, R-90, SB-20
There are no shocks here considering there are few players in the game today that can match the pure raw talent of Trout. Fun fact: When Trout was in the minors, Angels scouts actually pegged him for a .300/.350/.460 hitter with 15 home-run upside but would steal 30+ bases. So scouts were just a tad bit off on those predictions, but it is doubtful that any of them regret the miscalculation. Trout has a good eye and walks a solid rate that will keep the OBP high, and that should make it easier to steal, when the Angels allow him to steal, and get more runs scored. He has serious power, and we are not just talking home run power. He will get a lot of doubles and a few triples with his speed, so leagues that use OPS or SLG are going to just eat this guy up! To be fair, so will every league in all of fantasy, but what would any owner expect?
Trout is not without flaws, and the fluctuating strikeout rate is something owners need to watch. Now, notice the word “fluctuating” and not “rising” like other sites are claiming ,and that’s because it is not on the rise since he has had a 20%+ strikeout rate before in his career. We have established that the league average strikeout rate is sitting near 20% for the last six years, so there is not a super cause for concern. However, the fact that Trout was beaten last year with fastballs up in the zone is a cause to worry. Before owners start jumping off the Trout boat, let’s see how his 2015 season goes before going overboard.
Andrew McCutchen
2015 Prediction: .320/.420/.520, HR-28, RBI-95, R-75, SB-20
McCutchen is criminally undervalued it seems except in fantasy circles, where we recognize he is one of the best players in the game. He is an easy 20/20 threat and could even be a 30/20 guy if the wind is blowing his way during a few games. Unlike Trout, McCutchen can take a walk. Having a 13.0% walk rate and limiting the strikeouts to 17.7% lead him to a spectacular OBP and SLG that fantasy owners just eat up.
The biggest downside to McCutchen is something he has zero control over, and that is his team, which last year really let him down. Last year, McCutchen ended the season with an offensive WAR of 51.1, and the player that had the second-highest had only a 25.3. Grabbing McCutchen is going to be a joy for any owner, and in the end, even if his team lets him down McCutchen will produce.
Giancarlo Stanton
2015 Prediction: .280/.370/.560, HR-40, RBI-110, R-80, SB-15
This man is a beast, and last year, fantasy owners were treated to the potential that Stanton has been showing since his call up in 2010. The power is legit, and there is no real reason to go in depth about it since we all know that he has the power to reach that 40-home-run plateau. The things that is very interesting for Stanton is the increased walk rate, and, personally, this is where fantasy owners should get very excited. For two straight seasons, Stanton has had a 14.7% walk rate, and that is something all owners should love; more walks equals more runs scored and stolen bases after all. It also means that his pitch selection is getting better, and it will force pitchers to have to pitch to him. The strikeout rate is just something that owners are just going to have to live with.
The one thing that does throw up that red flag is the contact and his ability to hit for a decent average. Personally speaking, OBP is a more important stat to gauge a player, but in fantasy, batting average is the more common stat used. Stanton has had an average as low as .249 in 2013 and up to a .290 in 2012, so the range is wide. The good thing to note that his BABIP has been very consistent at .331 His 2013 season's was his career lowest BABIP at .313 and he still had an OBP of .365. No owner will worry about drafting this man, but just make sure to temper the expectations on his batting average.
Carlos Gomez
2015 Prediction: .280/.340/.480, HR-24, RBI-70, R-90, SB-35
Gomez is a perfect example of a player that just needed a change of scenery to really get himself going. This once top prospect has now turned himself into one of the more consistent and best leadoff hitters in baseball, and he comes with the added bonus of being very useful in fantasy. Gomez really pans out as a McCutchen-light -- just not as good with the K/BB ratios. His speed is his best asset and is what allows him to be a free swinger at the leadoff spot. Gomez has become a good 20/30 threat for owners, and being on a team that has been known for some offensive spurts puts him in good position to rack up the runs scored stat. Gomez would be a great fit on any team, but if any owners that wanted to get McCutchen but missed out -- well, here is the next best player.
Jose Bautista
2015 Prediction: 275/.400/.530, HR-35, RBI-105, R-95, SB-5
Bautista is pretty much the grown-up version of Stanton but with a much better beard. Bautista comes with the added bonus of being on a more consistent hitting team than Stanton, and that will likely keep his RBI and runs scored stats healthy and consistent. He also is far better at picking his pitches, and his 15.5% walk rate and 14.3% really speaks volumes considering the way the rest of the league is sitting closer to 7% walk rate and 20% strikeout rate. The power Bautista generates in a pitcher-friendly field is quite amazing, but up there does seem to be a cost.
Bautista’s BABIP has been a little up and down, which may explain why he had a .241 batting average in 2012 and a .259 in 2013 but back up to .286 in 2014. Bating average is the one area in which Bautista does seem to have issues staying consistent, and that may be the cost of all the power he has. It does not seem likely he will hit in the .250’s again, but he is not the .300 hitter we saw in 2011 -- somewhere in between. Take the same advice given for Stanton and draft for the power and expect the average to be lower than predicted, and owners should be fine.
Adam Jones
2015 Prediction: .275/.310/.480, HR-32, RBI-90, R-85, SB-10
Adam Jones is the first player on the list who is better suited for one league over others. Jones actually helps owners in a basic 5x5 league with batting average since he’s not known for his on-base abilities. In 2014, he had a pathetic 2.8% walk rate and a high 19.5% strikeout rate, so it is pretty obvious that Jones likes to swing away. Luckily for him, when he does swing away, he can hit it far away -- very far away -- and the power that Jones can provide is his main selling point. Last year, Jones hit a home run every 23.5 plate appearances and maintained a good .281 batting average, which puts him high on a lot of peoples draft boards.
Michael Brantley
2015 Prediction: .310/.350/.480, HR-15, RBI-85, R-80, SB-20
Brantley was a surprise to many owners who had not paid my attention to the once top prospect and got a very nice bonus from a player that went very late in most 2014 drafts. Brantley had a major breakout season, hitting .327/.385/.506 with 25 home runs and 23 stolen bases, and there are few doubts he could repeat in 2015. The one thing that owners should expect is regression since it does seem unrealistic that he can maintain his K/BB rate. Brantley struck out 8.3% of his at bats last year and walked 7.2% of the time. While both are repeatable, owners should be aware that 8.3% is a tough mark to reach again but if it only goes to say 12% it is more realistic.
Jacoby Ellsbury
2015 Prediction: .290/.340/.450, HR-10, RBI-60, R-80, SB-45
Let us get this out of the way now; no, he is not going to become this 30-home run guy ever again. Ellsbury is the first player on this list that is a little more singular in his tools, and that does not revolve around his power. Owners that draft Ellsbury knew this already. Sadly, the offense Ellsbury finds himself on is not the most consistent nor the most powerful, and that could end up hurting him in the runs scored and RBI numbers. That means his main value is coming from his ability to steal, which is a skill that he knows very well. The only other outfielders that could steal more the Ellsbury in 2015 are Carlos Gomez and Billy Hamilton. If owners already got a good power hitter in the first two rounds, Ellsbury could be a nice pickup to get some speed.
Ellsbury does come with pitfalls, though, since like many players on the New York Yankees, he is in a constant battle with the disabled list. Injuries are a part of the game, and fantasy owners have to balance the risk and reward of drafting injury-risk players like Ellsbury all the time.
Justin Upton
2015 Prediction: .280/.350/.480, HR-20, RBI-80, R-80, SB-5
Upton was once considered that up-and-coming player for the Arizona Diamondbacks years ago. While it took him longer than expected, he is now considered one of the better players in baseball. Power-wise, Upton had a very solid but up-and-down year, and owners, while sweating the entire time, had to sit there and watch to see when those peaks and valleys would come. Consistent hitting is Upton’s weakness, and his 26.7% strikeout rate in 2014 was a major cause of those fluctuations in consistency and was the tradeoff for the 25 home runs owners got. Upton swings for the fences every time, and that will drive owners up the wall when he goes .260/.320/.430 for two weeks but then blasts seven home runs the next week.
With the trade that sent Upton to one of the worst possible places for power, Upton’s value takes a hit, but it could also be a good thing. The larger field will sap some of those home runs, but they also could have a positive impact on his batting average Bigger fields mean balls can drop in more often. From what mock drafts have been showing owners, the trade has not impacted his value very much, and people still expect Upton to be a top outfielder. If owners out there are interested in drafting him, he is likely a back-of-the-third-round pick, and there could be better, more secure options going in that round.
Corey Dickerson
2015 Prediction: .290/.350/.480, HR-25, RBI- 75, R-70, SB-10
So far on this list, all the players have been known quantities, and early in drafts that is what owners want: known numbers. Even players like Brantley and Trout are pretty easy to predict if they fall short of their projected numbers, and that is why putting Dickerson here, tenth overall, is a risk. Dickerson is no exception to what happened with all of his fellow Rocky teammates: batting .252/.305/.431 with a 0.22 BB/K away from home. He also had a slightly below-average ISO of .178 and a BABIP of .313 away from home, so, overall, he plays slightly below average away from home but could improve.
The risks to Dickerson are high, but the upside is also pretty high. At 25, he is still very young and has plenty of time to improve his skills away from home. As for his play at home, he is spectacular (or at least he was in 2014) and that is the main reason that owners need to consider him. In 2014, he struck out 12% less at home than he did away, and he also walked more. His slash line for 2014 batting .363/.415/.684 with a .321 ISO and 15 home runs. If we get even a fraction of what Dickerson did in 2014, he could be one heck of a player in 2015.
