There will be one little change to the normal format that has been laid out so far, and that is no raising and falling stock section. There is a minimum of 120 outfielders in the Major Leagues, not counting bench players and outfield eligible players. That is a lot to go over to find guys that have rising and falling stocks, and for the most part, it is pretty easy to spot which players are raising and falling in the outfield.
Yasiel Puig
2015 Prediction: .290/.370/.480, HR-15, RBI-70, R-90, SB-15
Puig is something special and is well worth any owner's taking during the draft. With a good eye and a good feel for the strike zone, he was able to walk 10.5% of his plate appearances in 2014 and strikeout 19.4% of the time. Yes, that is still a little high, but considering the walks, it balances out pretty well. Puig has the ability to be a 20/15 hitter, showing the ability to hit for power in 2014 while hitting 16 home runs and hitting a .185 ISO and stealing 11 bases. Puig’s biggest struggle, however, is the base path because Puig makes way too many mental mistakes that could cost fantasy owners runs scored and RBI. This problem could cost Puig playing time if he does not improve. If owners are looking for a solid option and are not as confident in Corey Dickerson, there is no issue taking Puig ahead of Dickerson.
Starling Marte
2015 Prediction: .280/.340/.430, HR-15, RBI-50, R-80, SB-35
Marte is a nice young talent from Pittsburg who is still developing and building some consistency. That really is Marte’s big downfall, and, hopefully, he takes a step forward in 2015 to gain some consistency with the bat. Marte is fast and good on the base path, leading to another potential 30+ stolen base year for him. With the pop that he has, owners will enjoy the 15/30 seasons he can give. One thing to watch out for with Marte is the strikeouts that we have grown to just expect from him. His strikeout rate for 2014 was 24.0% with a measley 6.1% walk rate to balance it out. Needless to say, this is a major source of the inconsistency problem mentioned earlier. If he can limit those strikeouts and continue to hit for a strong average, the rest will come.
George Springer
2015 Prediction: .250/.330/.480, HR-35, RBI-90, R-80, SB0-20
Springer is a strange case of risk versus reward. The rewards are huge with his potential as a 30/30 player that will score owners plenty of RBI and runs scored to justify a fifth-round pick. On the other hand, he struck out 33.0% of the time in limited playing time in 2014, due to injury, and that also means he is likely going to be prone to a low batting average and could be quite streaky. Springer actually plays out better in OBP leagues rather than batting average leagues since he does take walks and gets on base quite often. When owners are drafting and looking at Springer, they are looking at his power and all that comes with it. Considering the risks, taking him as a fifth-round pick does seem fair for him and could actually be a steal if he does hit for more of an average.
Ryan Braun
2015 Prediction: .280/.340/.460, HR-25, RBI-90, R-85, SB-5
Braun left a very sour taste in fantasy owners' mouths with his 50-game suspension, and it showed in the 2014 draft when he fell from an overall five pick to a forth- or fifth-round pick. When it comes to fantasy owners, however, a short memory is definitely something to consider with Braun. The skill set he has is still there, and that includes the 25-30 home-run power owners can expect from Braun. He is no longer a major stolen base threat, but 5-10 would not be outside the realm of possibilities. Injuries may be the killer for Braun and his owners, though, so owners need to make sure they have a backup plan just in case he goes down. Consider also that his team has been known for inconsistency, and while this won’t affect his personal production, it could hurt his RBI and runs scored totals.
Yoenis Cespedes
2015 Prediction: .265/.320/.490, HR-30, RBI-85, R-80, SB-5
Cespedes is all power and not much else, but owners will still love him for it. Sadly, the power numbers are Cespedes's only real contribution to teams, as fantasy owners will complain, since he is not known for an ability to walk or even hit for a high average. Cespedes is a free swinger, and the strikeouts are going to come often for him -- but not at the rate of George Springer or Adam Jones. The real question for Cespedes will be his power numbers in Detroit, a known pitchers park. While 30 is closer to his career line, it would not be a shock to see him dip below that line because of the stadium. Time will tell, but at least going to Detroit gave him a strong lineup to bat in so the RBI should flow like the Nile.
Jason Heyward
2015 Prediction: .280/.340/.390, HR-20, RBI-60, R-85, SB-20
When Heyward first came up, scouts predicted a power hitter that would be a perennial 30-home-run hitter and, sadly, owners have seen only flashes of that potential from him thus far. That is not to say Heyward has no value and, in fact, he could have extra value now that he is away from Atlanta. Reports show that Heyward is likely to slip into the #2 spot, where he will likely get a fair number of runs scored for owners. The bonus of speed Heyward showed in 2014 means we could have a legitimate 20/20 player since we know Heyward has the ability to do both well. The biggest restraint on him will be health since Heyward has not been known to be the sturdiest of players. Overall, there are plenty of positive signs that point to Heyward's having a pretty solid year -- if not a career year -- and would more than justify the sixth-round pick owners would have to use.
Carlos Gonzalez
2015 Prediction: .280/.350/.430, HR-25, RBI-80, R-80, SB- 15
Sharp-eyed readers will note that the predictions for CarGo are actually better than for Heyward, but Heyward is rated higher on the list. There is a reason, and that is health. As brittle as Heyward can be, CarGo is ten times as bad and will likely miss more time. CarGo does have some flaws in the K/BB ratios, but he more than makes up for it in his ability to make solid contact and provide good power, so no worries there. The bottom line is the ability to stay healthy is just not there, and risking a high pick on him can and has destroyed many owners’ seasons. If any readers are brave enough to draft him, having a solid backup plan is a must.
Matt Kemp
2015 Prediction: .280/.340/.390, HR-20, RBI- 75, R-70, SB-7
Matt Kemp is a double whammy in the sense that he has become the poster child of injury-prone players in recent years. He just got traded to the worst team for power. Kemp has loads of talent and ability, but going to San Diego will likely make many owners overlook Kemp in the draft. That is a mistake. Kemp still has the ability to hit for power, and his ability to control the strike zone may help balance out that power drain issue. Much like CarGo, the health is going to be the major issue, and having a backup plan for Kemp is a must because, again, like CarGo, the chances of a full 2015 with Kemp are not good.
Christian Yelich
2015 Prediction: .290/.330/.380, HR-15, RBI-55, R-90, SB-20
Yelich was a quiet surprise for owners in 2014, giving them a little of everything. While suffering from some slump issues at times during the season, he is still a potential to be a 15/20 player for fantasy owners. Admittedly, 15 home runs seems a little high and represents the likely ceiling of potential we can expect from Yelich, but even if he hits around only 10 home runs, that is still good value. Yelich is not the best walker, and he does rack up a few too many strikeouts for a guy that will likely bat second, but the runs scored should come for his being on an underrated offense like Miami’s. Yelich will cost an eighth-round pick for most owners and should slot in as a very productive third outfielder for owners.
Bryce Harper
2015 Prediction: .290/.350/.460, HR-25, RBI-70, R-70, SB-10
Harper is probably one of the most polarizing figures in all of baseball, and he is no different when it comes to fantasy since owners either love him or hate him. Few players in baseball have the talent that Harper has, and every year owners see a little more of it but then see it taken away due to injuries or just a slump that hits at the wrong time. Harper has power with a career .193 ISO, a career .816 OPS, and a career wOBA of .338. He has demonstrated an ability to hit for average with a career .272 average and take a walk with a 10.4% walk rate and .351 OBP for his young career.
So why is Harper polarizing in fantasy? Much like in real life, Harper got way overhyped, and owners are still waiting for the payout for that hype. Over his career, he has had solid numbers across the board. However, when considering the 30-home-run, 30-stolen-base monster we were expecting, he has been a let down. The best way to go about Harper is to aim low and hope high. Owners will likely have to draft far higher than the eighth-round pick, and there is little chance that he will fall too far down since there will always be believers. This could be a big year for Harper, and owners should be willing to take the chance.