Jason Vargas has some serious bad luck or maybe Yordano Ventura has some serious good luck. A day after Vargas comes off the disabled list he tears his UCL and needs season ending Tommy John surgery. To make room for Vargas on the active roster the Kansas City Royals optioned Ventura down to Triple-A and today got called right back up. Fantasy wise this leaves some interesting options for owners if owners are ready to take the risk on Ventura.
First, lets take a look at what Vargas was doing in 2015 and how he impacted fantasy owners, all 4.1 percent of the leagues owners on ESPN. Before his injuries, Vargas was having a typical season where he didn't get many strike outs but also didn't walk a lot of guys either. His 5.65 K/9 is pretty much average for Vargas and the 2.51 BB/9 was also about what we expect from the veteran left-hander. Though the underlining numbers show that it was more or less a matter of time before he was going to get hit hard. We saw a pretty dramatic increase in hard hit balls and that coincided with a small increase in fly ball rate and HR/9. In 2014, Vargas had a 28.7 percent hard-hit rate and this year it raised to 36.4 percent, so it could have ended badly for Vargas owners.
Yordano Ventura has more interesting numbers that could entice owners to give him one last shot, though it would be wise for owners to keep him on a short leash. Ventura’s numbers look bad on the outside having only a 7.66 K/9, which is still good, and a 5.19 ERA which is just terrible. Ventura also has a career high 33.3 percent hard-hit rate, which is pretty bad too. If it wasn’t for pedigree, no owner would or should touch him in any league outside the deeper leagues. Now for the good, he has a career low in BB/9 at 2.95, his WHIP is only 1.35, he has increased his ground ball rate and lowered his fly ball rate, and lastly he suffers from some terrible luck. His FIP is at 3.69 and his BABIP is .321 which is a big sign that he is just unlucky and there are good odds Ventura could turn this around.
Vargas is a none factor so focus on Ventura who actually has some fantasy value. Ventura is currently owned in 46.4 percent of ESPN leagues and could be worth a trade if the price is cheap enough. Owners willing to take the risk need to still be cautious since even if the numbers do say he is having bad luck, that is not a guarantee that he will bounce back from it. The best strategy for him at the moment is to consider him as a spot starter versus teams he should beat up on and bench him on the teams that he could struggle. If owners do pick him up, it is recommended to hold on to him and not treat him as a spot-starter since Ventura has big time potential and other owners in the league might take that risk on him if available.
