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Key players and statistical leaders for Illinois Fighting Illini vs UCLA Bruins
Wayne Knight has 13 rushing touchdowns
Knight has found the end zone 13 times in nine games. Illinois, as a team, has nine rushing touchdowns.
How to watch Illinois at UCLA
Fox has the national broadcast. Kickoff is at 6:00 p.m. PT, 9:00 p.m. ET and 8:00 p.m. CT. In Madrid it is 03:00.
Stay with VAVEL for the live score, the third-down numbers, touchdowns, turnovers and the main stats from Knight, Houser and Dixon. We will keep the box score updated through the final whistle.
Rose Bowl, the line and ESPN's matchup model
The game is played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. The surface is natural grass. UCLA's last five games included three at home, against Wisconsin, Michigan State and Nevada.
DraftKings has UCLA at minus 10 with a total of 47.5 points. ESPN's matchup model gives the Bruins a 73.8 percent win probability and Illinois 26.2 percent.
UCLA scores 33.6 points per game and Illinois 28.4, which adds up to more than the 47.5 total. Third downs are close, with the Bruins converting 45.6 percent and the Illini 45.0 percent, so the drives that end in punts will matter a lot.
The defenses and the turnover numbers
UCLA has forced 17 turnovers this season and committed 13. Its defense has 17 interceptions, by far the biggest number of either team. Sammy Omosigho has 5.5 sacks and Jalen Woods leads the team with 73 tackles. As a unit the Bruins have 20 sacks, while their own offense has given up 12.
Illinois has eight takeaways and only six giveaways. That is a small number of turnovers in either direction. The Illini have just three interceptions on defense and 11 sacks, and their offense has been sacked 10 times. Ean Rhea has two of them, and Matthew Bailey is the top tackler with 65.
The difference in interceptions is large. Houser has been picked off five times, and the Bruins have 17 on defense.
The Big Ten table
UCLA sits at the top of the Big Ten at 9-0. Indiana is next at 8-1. Iowa and USC are 7-2.
Illinois is part of a group of five teams at 6-3 with Oregon, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Northwestern. Minnesota, Penn State, Washington, Michigan and Nebraska are all 5-4.
Illinois is 4-2 in the conference and UCLA is 6-0. Both teams play in the Big Ten, so this result goes straight into the league standings. That is a two-game gap in league play, and the Illini are chasing a team that has not lost a conference game all year.
Two common opponents: Oregon and Michigan State
These teams have two opponents in common, and both games went one way for UCLA and another for Illinois.
At Oregon the Bruins won 17-15 on the road. The Illini beat the Ducks 21-10 at home. At Michigan State, Illinois needed overtime to win 38-37, while UCLA beat the Spartans 28-10 at home.
So Illinois has the larger win over Oregon, eleven points against two, and UCLA has the larger win over Michigan State, 18 against one. The numbers cancel out. Oregon is 6-3 now and Michigan State is 3-6, which means neither result is a clean edge for either side.
Illinois' last five: four wins, one in overtime
Illinois started the stretch with a 24-17 home loss to Purdue. Then the Illini turned it around.
They won 38-37 in overtime at Michigan State, beat Oregon 21-10, won 20-17 at Maryland and finished with a 24-13 win over Nebraska at home. Two of the four wins were decided by three points or fewer.
That tells us something about this team. The Illini are 6-3, they have four wins in a row, and they have closed out tight games. The loss to Purdue looks odd on the list, since the Boilermakers are 3-6 overall. Their last two results were a three-point road win and an eleven-point home win. The four wins came against Michigan State (3-6), Oregon (6-3), Maryland (3-6) and Nebraska (5-4).
UCLA's last five: five wins, from two points to 27
Five games, five wins. UCLA won 17-15 at Oregon, 17-7 over Wisconsin, 28-10 over Michigan State, 27-0 over Nevada and 34-20 at Minnesota.
The Oregon game was the tightest, a two-point win on the road, and the Wisconsin game finished with a ten-point margin. The Nevada game was the most one-sided, a shutout. In total the Bruins scored 123 points in those five and allowed 52, which is a little over ten per game.
Their two road games in the stretch, at Oregon and at Minnesota, were both wins. The opponents have been solid too: Oregon and Wisconsin are 6-3, Minnesota is 5-4 and Michigan State is 3-6.
Katin Houser and Collin Dixon lead the Illinois attack
Illinois is the opposite of UCLA. The Illini throw first. They average 236.9 passing yards against 155.3 on the ground, and they score 28.4 points per game.
Katin Houser has 162 completions on 252 attempts for 1,955 yards and 16 touchdowns, with five interceptions. His favorite target is Collin Dixon, and the numbers are big: 68 catches, 910 yards and 12 touchdowns. Dixon accounts for 12 of the Illini's 20 touchdown passes, and he averages 13.4 yards a catch.
Houser completes 64.3 percent of his passes. Aidan Laughery leads the backfield with 100 carries for 615 yards and two touchdowns, 6.2 yards a carry. The Illini have just nine rushing scores as a team, so most of their touchdowns come through the air.
Wayne Knight and the UCLA run game
UCLA wins with its legs. The Bruins average 213.2 rushing yards, 431.9 total yards and 33.6 points per game, and they have 26 rushing touchdowns against only ten through the air.
Wayne Knight is the reason for most of those. He has 128 carries for 789 yards and 13 touchdowns, so he averages just over six yards per attempt and scores about once every ten runs. Illinois has nine rushing touchdowns as a team, and the Illini average 155.3 rushing yards. Knight alone has 789.
The passing game is smaller by design. Ty Dieffenbach has completed 67 of 116 throws, 57.8 percent, for 986 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. Semaj Morgan is his top target with 37 catches for 469 yards and two scores.
Unbeaten UCLA hosts Illinois at the Rose Bowl
Welcome to VAVEL's live coverage of Illinois at UCLA from the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. Kickoff is at 6:00 p.m. PT on Fox, which is 9:00 p.m. ET and 03:00 in Madrid.
The UCLA Bruins are ranked fourth by ESPN and have not lost. They are 9-0 overall and 6-0 in the Big Ten. The Illinois Fighting Illini come in at 6-3 and 4-2 in conference play, and they have won four of their last five.
DraftKings, as listed by ESPN, makes UCLA a 10-point favorite with the total at 47.5. We will follow every drive and every score from the first snap. UCLA has won all nine of its games, the closest of the last five being the two-point win at Oregon, and Illinois has won four straight since that loss to Purdue.
Star power headlines tonight's matchup between Illinois Fighting Illini and UCLA Bruins at Rose Bowl.
UCLA Bruins statistical leaders: Ty Dieffenbach (67/116, 986 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT passing yards) and Wayne Knight (128 CAR, 789 YDS, 13 TD rushing yards).
Illinois Fighting Illini statistical leaders: Katin Houser (162/252, 1,955 YDS, 16 TD, 5 INT passing yards) and Aidan Laughery (100 CAR, 615 YDS, 2 TD rushing yards).