It’s no secret that multiple teams are after Oregon QB Marcus Mariota in the 2015 draft. This cohort is led by Mariota’s former college coach Chip Kelly who is the dictator in charge of the Philadelphia Eagles who clearly wants to change completely over to a spread style offensive system. However, it’s far from guaranteed that he can outbid the other suitors gunning for Mariota. Whomever makes the pick for Mariota will cause ripples in the NFL draft that will be felt through the heart of the first round. So, let’s consider some scenarios and see how things could be affected.
Base line (you don’t have to agree with this mock, but its a base line for future scenarios): Tennessee takes Mariota #2 and the world keeps spinning...
2. Tennessee: Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon
3. Jacksonville: Kevin White, WR WVU
4. Oakland: Leonard Williams, DL Southern Cal.
5. Washington: Brandon Scherff, OL Iowa
6. New York Jets: Randy Gregory, DE/OLB Nebraska
7. Chicago: Danny Shelton, DT Washington
8. Atlanta: Dante Fowler, DL Florida
9. New York Giants: Shane Ray, DE Missouri
10. St Louis: Amari Cooper, WR Alabama
11. Minnesota: Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State
12. Cleveland: Bud Dupree, OLB/DE Kentucky
13. New Orleans: Vic Beasley, OLB/DE Clemson
14. Miami: Eric Kendricks, LB UCLA
15. San Francisco: Eddie Goldman, DL FSU
16. Houston: Jalen Strong, WR Arizona State.
17. San Diego: Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin
18. Kansas City: Ereck Flowers, OT Miami
19. Cleveland (from buffalo): Brett Hundley, QB UCLA
20. Philadelphia: Landon Collins, S Alabama
Scenario 1. Philly trades up to 2 for Mariota. This would cost them Sam Bradford, their 1st and 2nd in 2015, their 1st and 3rds in 2016 and a 2017 3rd as well. This is an extremely steep cost and makes the deal fairly implausible.
2. Philadelphia(from Tennessee): Marcus Mariota, QB Tennessee.
3. Jacksonville: Leonard Williams, DL Southern Cal.
4. Oakland: Kevin White, WR WVU
5. Cleveland Browns (from Washington Redskins, the Redskins get picks 12, 19 and DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo, the Browns also get RG3): Danny Shelton, DT Washington
6. New York Jets: Dante Fowler, Jr, DE/OLB Florida.
7. New York Giants (from Chicago, Chicago gets pick #9 and a 3rd round pick): Randy Gregory, DE/OLB Nebraska.
8. Atlanta: Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State
9. Chicago (from New York Giants): Amari Cooper, WR Alabama
10. St Louis: Brandon Scherff, OL Iowa
11. Minnesota: Jalen Strong, WR Arizona State.
12. Washington (from Cleveland): La’El Collins, OL LSU
13. New Orleans: Shane Ray, DE/OLB Missouri
14. Miami: Eric Kendricks, LB UCLA
15. San Francisco: Arik Armstead, DL Oregon
16. Houston: Todd Gurley, RB UGA
17. San Diego: Vic Beasley, OLB/DE Clemson
18. Kansas City: Ereck Flowers, OT Miami
19. Washington (from Buffalo via Cleveland): Brett Hundley, QB UCLA.
20. Tennesse (from Philadelphia): DJ Humphries, OT Florida
With the two trades (Philly to two and Cleveland to five) the edge defender group all saw their draft position drop. Why does this happen? It’s pretty simple: Danny Shelton. With him out of the mix at 5, that scrambles the plans for Chicago (who wanted him), the Jets (also interested) and teams in the 8-15 range that might be interested in Shelton. Look at Chicago and San Fran. Both teams want Shelton but Cleveland’s move up to get him and do something more about their QB situation means that San Francisco is after Armstead instead of one of the edge defenders. Chicago would love Shelton but missing out on him means that they just decide to go best player available.
Scenario 2. Philly trades up to 5 for Mariota. They give the Redskins Sam Bradford, pick #20, their 2nd in 2015 and a 1st in 2016. The Redskins flip RG3 or Bradford to Cleveland for pick #19.
(assuming that 1-4 goes Winston, Leonard Williams, Kevin White and Amari Cooper)
5. Philadelphia (from Washington): Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon
6. New York Jets: Danny Shelton, DT Washington
7. Cleveland (from Chicago, Chicago gets pick 12 and Cleveland’s 2nd, Cleveland gets Chicago’s 3rd also): Brandon Scherff, OL Iowa
8. Washington (from Atlanta, Atlanta gets picks 19, 20 and Washington gets a 3rd round pick from Atlanta): Randy Gregory, OLB/DE Nebraska.
9. New York Giants: Dante Fowler Jr, DL Florida
10. New Orleans (from St Louis, St Louis gets pick 13 and a 3rd round pick): Shane Ray, DE/OLB Missouri.
11. Minnesota: Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State
12. Chicago (from Cleveland): Jalen Strong, WR Arizona State.
13. St Louis (from New Orleans): La’el Collins, OL LSU
14. Miami: Marcus Peters, CB Washington
15. San Francisco: Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson
16. Atlanta (from Houston, Houston gets pick 20 and a 4th round pick): Bud Dupree, DE/OLB Kentucky
17. San Diego: Landon Collins, S Alabama
18. Kansas City: Eric Kendricks, LB UCLA
19. Atlanta (from Buffalo via Cleveland and Washington): Ereck Flowers, OT Miami
20. Houston (from Philadelphia via Washington and Atlanta): Todd Gurley, RB UGA
What you have in this scenario is that the move up for Mariota keeps team’s priorities frozen but they start reaching for guys they normally wouldn’t. And it provokes a number of trades up and down the heart of the first round. Both Atlanta and Washington trade down, then back up to get a guy that they probably would have targeted with their natural first in the first place. Cleveland gets out of their lower firsts to move up to fill an immediate need and Houston gets to move down for the honor of taking who they would have taken anyway.
Scenario 3. Cleveland trades up to 4 for Mariota, Philly flips Bradford and a 3rd round pick for RG3 or Cam Newton.
(assuming that 1-4 goes Winston, Leonard Williams, Kevin White and Marcus Mariota)
5. New Orleans (from Washington, Washington gets Jahri Evans, pick 13 and a 3rd round pick): Dante Fowler Jr, DL Florida
6. New York Jets: Randy Gregory DE/OLB Nebraska
7. Oakland (from Chicago, Chicago gets pick #12, Jared Allen and a 4th round pick): Amari Cooper, WR Alabama
8. Atlanta: Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State
9. New York Giants: Shane Ray, DE Missouri
10. St Louis: Brandon Scherff, OL Iowa
11. Minnesota: Marcus Peters, CB Washington
12. Chicago (from Cleveland via Oakland): Danny Shelton, DL Washington
13. Philadelphia (from New Orleans via Washington, Washington gets pick 20 and the Rams’ 3rd round pick in 2016): Landon Collins, S Alabama
14. Miami: Eric Kendricks, LB UCLA
15. San Francisco: Ron Darby, CB FSU
16. Houston: Jalen Strong, WR Arizona State
17. San Diego: Bud Dupree, DE/OLB Kentucky
18. Kansas City: Ereck Flowers, OT Miami
19. Oakland (from Buffalo via Cleveland): Eddie Goldman, DT FSU
20. Washington (from Philadelphia): Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson.
The Saints strike in this one. After their Stalin-like purge in early March, they need a dramatic move to add top end talent and get to dump another player (Jahri Evans) that they were seriously consider dumping in their purge. This combined with Oakland and Philly’s trades back up creates a downward force on the edge rushers in this draft since teams are scrambling to fill up on other spots before looking at them. If the Eagles don’t deal for Mariota, a deal up into the teens for Landon Collins could be in the works-especially if they can get a QB in that or another trade. Another curiosity is Danny Shelton. This is the only mock scenario where he doesn’t go in the top 7. If the Bears stay at 7, they probably take him. If Cleveland can deal up that high, they’ll take him also. However the teams from 8-11 don’t really need him nor can pass on more talented players to take him.
Ultimately the best way to look at this all is to ask yourself one question: how does the trade for Marcus Mariota effect the Redskins? We know how it will affect the Eagles, Browns or Titans, but no matter who or where Marcus Mariota is taken, this will directly impact what Scot McCloughan is doing for the Redskins on draft night. If a team jumps ahead of #5 to get Mariota, then the Redskins will almost certainly deal down. If a team deals with him for Mariota, then he probably will try to deal back up in the first round to go after one of the top level prospects. If a team misses out on Mariota, they’ll be calling DC about Robert Griffin III and/or Carolina about Cam Newton. These potential trades and the scenarios tied to this are why the #5 pick is the fulcrum of the entire draft.