As we venture into the regular season, I decided to see what a few of my partners in crime thought about the Detroit Lions in this coming season. VAVEL USA contributors Bo Walsh and Chris Robbins, VAVEL Head NFL Editor Caleb Wahlgren, joined me, Randy Glisson II, in the discussion. Without further adieu, may I present to you the Detroit Lions VAVEL Roundtable Discussion.
1. Do you expect QB Matthew Stafford to take a step back, a step forward, or have a season similar to his 2014 campaign?
RG: Maybe it's the fanboy in me, but I expect Matthew Stafford to improve upon his 2014 performance. Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi said that he thinks that he may have over loaded the offense as a whole in 2014. However, Stafford had a decent year, won the Pro Bowl MVP, and the Lions went 11-5. The offense saw good production from Calvin Johnson, and in particular Golden Tate. After those two, there is a huge drop. I really like Joique Bell, but his YPC (3.9) has been very pedestrian over the past two seasons. I think the running game as a whole will benefit from the addition of Ameer Abdullah.
CW: Matthew Stafford should take a step forward once again in 2015. Last year he did set himself up and regress for the third straight year in a row. He's got some consistency at the wide receiver position and he has Golden Tate, who is the best second receiver he's ever had. I think Stafford should be able to complete over 60% of his passes, throw for 4,500 yards, with 32 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, which would make it second in his career numbers to his superb 2011 season.
CR: Matthew Stafford will have a similar year to 2014, which would mean he would be taking a step backwards. Last year Stafford outperformed my expectations as a QB with only one decent receiver full time in Golden Tate. Assuming everyone stays healthy and Stafford only puts up 4000 yards, with the Lions relying on the pass again this year and talent like Calvin Johnson and Eric Ebron joining Tate, it would be a disappointment.
BW: Lions fans should expect Stafford to be better this year. That’s not a knock on his 2014 season-the opinion here is that it was his best due to reduced turnovers and near flawless execution for 4 game wining 4th quarter drives despite the decreased fantasy numbers-but an indication of what he can be in year 2 of this offense. Last year, his best receiver as well as large parts of his offensive line and backfield were dinged up for significant portions of the season. Assuming improved health there, the expected development of TE Eric Ebron into an additional down field threat as well as a rejuvenated running game, there is no reason for Stafford to not put up near career numbers without sacrificing the improved accuracy and efficiency we saw last season.
2. Ndamukong Suh is gone. Will the Lions still have a top 5 defense? Top ten?
RG: Ndamukong Suh was great for the Lions, but he was also a member of some atrocious defenses. Teryl Austin is largely responsible for the turnaround on defense. The 2014 defensive personnel was nearly the same as the 2013 personnel. In 2013 they were ranked 15th overall in defense vs. 2nd overall in 2014. Last season the offense was stagnant, I believe the offense will perform much better thus putting less responsibility on the defense. I expect this unit to be top 10, possibly top 5 by the end of the season.
CW: Ndamukong Suh is consistently one of the best defensive players in the league. His absence will be felt this season on the Lions' defense. Last year they were second in the NFL in yards allowed and then tied for second in points allowed, tied with the Kansas City Chiefs. Teryl Austin is doing some wonderful things on the defense side of the ball, but I think that the rest of the defense will suffer without Suh on the field and instead of being a top 5 defense, they will fall closer to the 10th best defense.
CR: One bold statement from the Lions that seems realistic this year, is that Ndamukong Suh will hurt sales more than he will the on field product. Suh did not play every snap, and it seems more likely he gets suspended for touching Tom Brady next year than being an All Pro player. Lions won't have the best defense, sure, but with the revamped secondary having a full year together lead by Glover Quin and a much improved Darius Slay (who's looking like a second round steal), and a top notch line backing core led by DeAndre Levy, the Lions should have a top ten defense. If Ezekiel Ansah continues to improve, and the Lions get consistent production out of the rest of the defensive line, they could have a top five defense. Without Jordy Nelson in the division next year, two games should get easier as well.
BW: Detroit easily still has the best defense in the NFC North and should at least be a top ten defense without Suh. Suh has been the best interior d-lineman in the NFL since his rookie year-in this opinion-and the Lions defense struggled to be in the top half of the NFL prior to last season. Obviously, Suh was a major part of this but to assume the Lions will automatically fall to near the bottom without him is absurd. They will miss him but, contrary to the assumption of many in the national media, the rise of the defense last year was not completely-or even mostly- on the back of Suh. They have arguably the best run stopping defensive lineman in the league in Haloti Ngata, depth in the line backing corps and a Pro Bowl talent in DeAndre Levy; the league’s best safety tandem outside of Seattle; and a possible Pro Bowl type corner in Darius Slay. There are some questions with youth up front and health is a key, particularly when relying so heavily on two key 30-somethings in Ngata and Rashean Mathis. Again, the call here is top ten but another top 5 defense is certainly possible.
3. Who will have a bigger year, Calvin Johnson or Golden Tate?
RG: It is always tough to bet against Megatron. I expect him to have a typical 1,200 yards receiving and 7-10 touchdowns. What makes Tate great is his speed and yards after catch (YAC). With the addition of Lance Moore, the Lions now have three legit targets. I suspect that this means it will be harder to double cover Calvin Johnson, and that is a scary thought. Expect Megatron to have better numbers than Golden Tate, but not by much.
CW: Last year Golden Tate had a bigger year than Calvin Johnson, which was pretty remarkable. Tate again should have a better year in 2015 because unless they get some strong production from the tight ends or other places on offense, Calvin Johnson is once again likely to get double teamed as opposing defenses will try to stop the bigger and stronger Megatron. But then again while Tate did have a little bit more than 250 more receiving yards than Johnson, Johnson had twice as many touchdowns as Tate 8-4.
CR: It really depends on what defines a bigger year. It might be Calvin if you go off of YPR, YAC, TD's, but if you're looking at drops and receptions, maybe you would pick Tate. I think Tate will do well again, but it really depends on Stafford and the Lions QB's and how good they are this year.
BW: You have to go with Calvin Johnson, arguably the best position player (non-QB) in the league. When we last saw him healthy for an entire season, he was threatening the all time receiving yardage record. He has a legitimate #2 threat beside him, more weapons in the total offense to relieve the pressure on him, and a maturing QB who can get him the football. Oh, and if he is healthy, no one can single cover him. The presence of Tate, as well as the expected improvement of Eric Ebron and development of a running game means teams will have to try single coverage in more situations than they would like. Still expect Tate to exceed 1000 yds for the second consecutive season, however.
4. At the end of the season who will be the Lions MVP on offense? Defense?
RG: The MVP on offense will be Ameer Abdullah. Abdullah will get plenty of chances and make the most of them. He can catch the ball wonderfully out of the backfield and run between the tackles. I expect him to have something in the ballpark of 1,300 all purpose yards and 12-15 total touchdowns. Matthew Stafford certainly has a shot, but I think the upgraded offensive line will make the Lions lean heavier on the run game than previous years. On Defense, there are two names that come to mind. Ezekiel Ansah needs to have a dominate season for two reasons. He isn't in a contract year, but big production this season would almost guarantee him a contract extension. Also, quite simply, the defense needs him to step up and help account for the lost pressure from Ndamukong Suh. DeAndre Levy is the other name. It looks as though Levy may miss some time, but everyone says it won't be significant time. We shall see.
CW: The Lions offensive MVP will be Matthew Stafford. He is going to be the man who keeps things going on offense because without Reggie Bush it seems like they will have a tough time with their running their offense as they use a running back by committee with Ameer Abdullah and Joique Bell lining up behind Stafford. They are going to need to rely on his arm once again and Stafford will be responsible for just how far the Lions can go on offense in 2015. Defensively, they really need to see a rise out of their young defensive end in Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah. But instead of Ansah, the underrated DeAndre Levy will be the defensive MVP. He is able to get into the backfield and is a tackling machine as he brings the boom in the Lions defense. Levy is going to be fantastic in 2015.
CR: Offensive MVP: If it's not Matthew Stafford something must have gone extremely wrong. Defensive MVP: Unless Levy dominates the league again, Darius Slay would be my pick. He's going to be the guy on Alshon Jeffrey, Randall Cobb, and either Mike Wallace or Cordarrelle Patterson 6 times this year, not including many other top receivers. If he shuts them down, he deserves Lions defensive MVP. Stephen Tulloch is also a name to look out for making his return to the lineup. Also keep an eye on Ezekiel Ansah.
BW: Calvin Johnson is the best offensive player for Detroit and, despite the presence of some other top talent on offense, its really not even close. However, the new look Lions proved last year that they could play well and win without CJ or with him less than 100%, something that was not the case earlier in his career. There is only one player on offense without whom it is hard to see the Lions winning on any given Sunday. Offensive MVP is QB Matt Stafford. Defensively, one of the main stories missed last year in all the hoopla about the rush defense and ferocious front four was the fact that the Lions have been fielding pretty good front fours and sevens for a few years now but the defense was never the consistent difference maker it was in ‘14. The difference (besides a wunderkind first year coordinator)? Last year you didn’t see opposing offenses consistently pick apart the Lions secondary like it was a two hand touch Saturday morning rec league game. In a passing league, you better be able to defense the ball in the air and have the ability to lock up upper level receivers in key situations. If you can do that, and you have a decent front seven-which Detroit does-you have a chance to be a pretty good defense. Defensive MVP is CB Darius Slay.
5. What will be the Lions record after Week 17?
RG: This is the fan boy in me talking, but 12-4. Yes, I know the schedule is tough. Yes, their first four games are daunting. However, in order for a time to take that next step they must put up or shut up. There is too much talent on both sides of the ball for this team to finish with the pundit friendly record of 7-9 or 8-8. This is the year that the Lions take the division. This is the year that they win at Lambeau Field. I know, I am crazy right? Last season all of these same naysayers said that the Lions would finish no better than 7-9 and they finished 11-5.
CW: Well, the Lions schedule starts off very rough with trips to San Diego and Minnesota before hosting Denver and going to Seattle all in the first four weeks. It will certainly be their toughest stretch of the season. But, if forced to make a prediction at this point, I would put them finishing at 9-7 at second place in a very competitive NFC North, which would likely put them on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs are concerned.
CR: I haven't extensively studied the Lions schedule yet, but everything I've seen has said around 12 wins optimistically, with as few as six wins from pessimists. Most seem to be in the ten win range. I doubt the Lions miss the playoffs by very much, but they do play in arguably the best division in football this coming year. I'd give them 9 wins, but with injuries to either them or key players in the rest of the division, that could change any second.
BW: The first four games of the season will be key, even more so than in most years. 3 games on the road in the first month, 2 of them key divisional and/or conference matchups. If Detroit can survive the first month gauntlet by going 2-2, they should feel good about themselves and be in good shape going forward. The call is that they will do that and finish the season at 10-6.
I would like to thank Chris, Caleb, and Bo for their contributions.