For the first time since 2008, the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships trophy will not be lifted by either Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer. Instead, Stan Wawrinka takes on surprise finalist Marcos Baghdatis, in what will be the pair’s sixth meeting.
Route To The Final
Both Wawrinka and Baghdatis have had similar routes to the Dubai showdown as both players have only dropped one set. Second seed Wawrinka faced Sergiy Stakhovsky for the second time in as many weeks with the same result as their meeting in Marseille, as the Swiss man won 5-7, 6-3, 7-5. Qualifier Franco Skugor and eighth-seeded Philipp Kohlschreiber were dispatched with identical scorelines of 7-5, 6-1, to set-up a meeting with the in-form Nick Kyrgios. An up-and-down first set went the way of Wawrinka, leading to Kyrgios retiring in the second set after finding himself 0-3 down.
Baghdatis has reached his first ATP 500 final since Washington in 2010, after making a surprise return to form in Dubai. Fifth-seed Viktor Troicki was seen-off in straight sets after a tight first set which led to a tie-breaker. Vasek Pospisil was comfortably beaten in the second round to set-up an intriguing clash with a possible player of the year candidate, Roberto Bautista Agut. The first set was won by Baghdatis 7-5, before he earned an impressive second set bagel to reach the last four. He completed his run to the final by defeating Feliciano Lopez in three sets, running away with the second set tiebreaker and the entirety of the deciding set.
Head-To-Head Record
The pair have met five times previously, with Wawrinka winning all of their encounters. Baghdatis may be buoyed by the fact they have only met once since 2013, where the Cypriot was forced to retire after only five games. Their first meeting was way back in Indian Wells with Wawrinka progressing through in three sets. Two of their matches have been played at Grand Slams; the US Open in 2013, and the Australian Open in 2012, resulting in both matches being settled in four sets.
Another slight case of optimism for the popular-Cypriot is that only one of their meetings have been settled in straight sets, the sole exception being in Kuala Lumpur back in 2013.
What To Expect
This final does not favour Baghdatis in the slightest, given who his opponent on the other side of the net is, and their head-to-head record. He has won sets over the defending French Open champion previously but must maintain this level over the majority of the match in order to be successful. The key for the Cypriot will be his serve, and he must target a higher percentage of first serves in to have any chance of lifting the title. Only once during the week has this percentage been over fifty percent, and he will need a similar performance in this meeting to overcome an improved returner such as Wawrinka.
The Swiss star is the heavy favourite for this final, and if he is anywhere near his best level then he will lift his first Dubai title. ‘Stan the Man’ has won seventy-seven percent of the points on his first delivery, and has the second best second serve points won in 2016, with sixty percent. Only Djokovic has more in the early part of the season. He has not been at his best during the tournament, but could be saving his best for the all-important final showdown.
Prediction
Baghdatis would be a highly-popular and surprise winner in Dubai, but it is difficult to look past Wawrinka clinching his second title of the year.
Prediction: Wawrinka in straight sets
