As the 2024 Formula One season reaches its much-discussed climax, defending champion Max Verstappen currently holds a 47-point lead over Lando Norris in the drivers’ standings.
Four races remain, featuring two sprints, with the Sao Paulo Grand Prix the first opportunity for the McLaren driver to make a real dent in the Dutchman’s advantage.
Verstappen will take a new internal combustion engine (ICE), which is outside his allocated pool of components, resulting in a five-place grid penalty for the three-time world champion.
As the number of races dwindle down, Norris must make his race weekend in Brazil one to remember, if he is to seriously challenge Verstappen’s residency at the top of the F1 tower.
What does Norris need to do?
Ever since McLaren brought their crucial Miami upgrade, Norris has been able to compete for race wins and pole positions consistently, slowly nibbling away at Verstappen’s championship lead.
The Dutchman’s current advantage is his smallest since Monaco, but the limited number of remaining races requires some serious good fortune to swing Norris’ way.
There remains a maximum of 120 points up for grabs for a driver across the final four race weekends of the season.
That breaks down as 104 in the four Grand prix (25 for a win and one for the fastest lap in each race) and 16 across the two Sprint races still to come (eight points for a win) in Brazil and Qatar.
Despite taking 10-points out of Verstappen’s lead in Mexico, Norris needs to outscore his title adversary by an even greater margin if he is to clinch his maiden world championship.
The McLaren pilot needs to gain 11.75 points a weekend to draw level with Verstappen, and exactly 12 points to outscore his rival by one point.
However, levelling up with Verstappen’s point tally would still see the current world champion retain his crown on countback, as he currently has seven race wins to Norris’ three.
If Lando can manage to win the four remaining Grand Prix and the scores were level, the countback would fall to P2’s, in which the McLaren driver currently holds six to Verstappen’s four.
How soon could Verstappen win the title?
After making his second-most significant points gain of the season on Verstappen in Mexico, Norris has ensured that he remains within two race wins of the Dutchman.
Therefore, even if the Red Bull driver was to win both the sprint and the Grand Prix in Sao Paulo and Norris was to go pointless, the world-champion would still be short of the 86-point lead he would need to be crowned champion on Sunday.
As a result, the earliest possible opportunity the title could now be won by Verstappen is at the Las Vegas GP weekend of November 21-23.
Max would need to end that race 61 (or 60 on countback) points ahead of Norris, just 13 more than his current advantage.
Norris and McLaren will of course have different plans and will want to take the battle to the final round in Abu Dhabi.
Is Charles Leclerc still in contention?
Approaching the current standings in a purely mathematical sense, both Leclerc and Oscar Piastri are still in with an outside chance of notching their first drivers’ championship.
Obviously, with context applied, the scenario in which this prospect becomes a reality would be incredibly rare, especially in the case of Piastri, after experiencing two less than impressive weekends in Texas and Mexico.
However, Ferrari and Leclerc have looked the standout combination in the second period of the season, even more so since their triumph in Monza, taking a dominant win in Texas before teammate Sainz scored another victory for the Scuderia in Mexico.
Leclerc's deficit to Verstappen is 71 points - almost three race wins - and so he would need to outscore the Red Bull driver by an eye-watering 17.75 points a race weekend to the end of the year if he was to win the championship.
Extremely unlikely.
This would also depend on Norris also not scoring large in the remaining races, a hopeful but not entirely impossible scenario for Leclerc and Ferrari.
A more-realistic series of events could see Leclerc usurp Norris and finish in the runners-up spot, matching his 2022 ranking, if Ferrari can bring their impressive pace to the final four rounds.
Who has the fastest car?
A query that has become increasingly tough to answer throughout 2024, as Ferrari finally look to have a package that is competitive in all tracks and conditions, equalling the endlessly quick McLaren at the past few rounds.
Red Bull dominated the start of the year but haven’t looked the outright fastest car since qualifying in Belgium, with Verstappen not taking a single race win since the Spanish Grand Prix back in June.
Mind boggling stuff, considering the Dutchman’s sheer dominance only one season ago.
During the mid-point of the campaign, McLaren had by far the strongest package, but now the Scuderia seem to have pegged their famous adversary’s back.
Going off form, Ferrari and McLaren are expected to fight for the win in the remaining four rounds, but an unpredictable Mercedes car and a determined Verstappen could yet spring a surprise.
The Sao Paulo Grand Prix will start at 17:00 GMT on Sunday November 3rd.
