For all but two teams, the MLB regular season ended on Sunday, with the postseason just around the corner. But for the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves, there are still two games to play. The pair will play a doubleheader today (Monday 30th September) to determine not only their fate but also the entirety of the National League playoff picture.
This is due to Hurricane Helene, which caused two rainouts, forcing the games to be played after the conclusion of the regular season.
Whilst four NL sides have secured a postseason berth, there are still two to determine. The Mets and Braves control their destiny, but for the Arizona Diamondbacks, they will have to wait and see.
As it stands, the Diamondbacks are on the outside looking in after 162 games.
New York and Atlanta are tied at 88-72 and hold the final two spots. Arizona is relying on a sweep by either side to claim the last wildcard spot.
There were two scenarios in which neither of these games needed to be played had results gone a particular way on Sunday. Both involved the Diamondbacks losing to the San Diego Padres, which would have confirmed the playoff bracket and likely resulted in the cancellation of the doubleheader.
However, the Diamondbacks won, ensuring all three teams could still be eliminated. A victory for Atlanta yesterday would have confirmed their wildcard spot.
Instead, it sets up a chaotic afternoon with the eyes of the baseball world on Truist Park. It is a dream scenario for fans who love the drama, but it is a logistical nightmare for MLB. The wildcard round starts tomorrow, with the Mets and Braves at a disadvantage.
Every Possible Scenario
The only way the Diamondbacks get in is with a sweep by either team. The Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres are also awaiting their opponents in the wildcard.
Mets & Braves split – Mets @ Brewers, Braves @ Padres
Mets sweep – Mets @ Padres, Diamondbacks @ Brewers
Braves sweep – Braves @ Padres, Diamondbacks @ Brewers
Should a split occur, all three teams will end on a record of 89-73. The Diamondbacks would miss out on the tiebreaker.
Diamondbacks Collapse
Whilst there are two scenarios which clinch a playoff berth for the Diamondbacks, it feels as though the odds are not in their favour. Whoever wins game one of the doubleheader will have secured their spot and therefore not have any incentive to play their best players in game two. The rivalry between the Mets and Braves could make things interesting, though with such a short turnaround it would be sensible to prioritise preparation for tomorrow's games.
However, for the Diamondbacks, this could have all been avoided with just one more win. After enjoying a strong second half of the season, they closed the campaign with five losses in their last seven. In the first game of this stretch, they blew an 8-0 lead to a Brewers side who had already won the NL Central division. They lost the game 10-9 despite holding a large advantage after three innings. In the penultimate game of the season, the Mets had lost 5-0 to the Brewers, opening up the door for the Diamondbacks to overtake them. They did not take this opportunity; however, they also lost 5-0 to a Padres side with nothing to play for. San Diego rested multiple of their top players.
Though they bounced back in their final game to win 11-2, the season will be clouded in disappointment should they miss out on the postseason. Having lost in the World Series last year, there was hope that the young side would progress and fight for a championship once more. Since the all-star break, the Diamondbacks have recorded the most home runs, runs and highest batting average of all teams. They also led the league in OBP and slugging, cementing themselves as the best offense in the second half. Pitching was the opposite, they ranked 26th in the league in ERA in the same period. Their struggles were particularly evident this last week and could have cost them a shot in the playoffs. But if they do sneak in, their offense will certainly give them a chance of making a run.
Padres are the Real Winners
Even when the Padres lose, they win. The Diamondbacks beat them 11-2 in the final game of the regular season, but it was probably the best-case scenario for San Diego. They had already clinched their postseason berth and home-field advantage for the wildcard round. Their loss ensured the doubleheader gets played. They too have a vested interest in two games, as they wait to find out their opponents. It will be either the Mets or the Braves, as the Diamondbacks are unable to finish above the 6th seed.
Regardless of who the Padres face, they will already be at an advantage with an extra off day.
They had the luxury of giving players days off in the final days of the season with players such as Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, and Luis Arraez earning further rest. The pitching matchup is intriguing, especially if the Braves lose the first game of the doubleheader.
With game two a must-win for Atlanta in this scenario, they could be forced to use ace and likely Cy Young winner Chris Sale.
This would almost certainly rule him out of taking the mound in any of the wildcard games.
The Braves have an excellent pitching staff otherwise, but it would be a huge boost for the Padres if they could avoid him.
What do the Dbacks think?
There is no more that the Diamondbacks can do but watch. They did their job by winning their final game to give them one last chance. Manager Torey Lovullo is confident that both the Braves and Mets will give their all for both games, meaning all hope is not lost.
Star player Corbin Carroll admitted it will be hard but notes that their work in the regular season is done. He also acknowledged the disappointment at not keeping their fate in their own hands.
Let the Chaos Begin!
Game one of the Braves-Mets doubleheader begins at 1:10 pm ET. Spencer Schwellenbach will take the ball for Atlanta, facing Mets right-hander Tylor Megill. Sale will take game two if they fail to win. Luis Severino will likely pitch game two for New York if they fail to win game one.
The first pitch of game two should take place around half an hour after the conclusion of game one.
