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Tiger Stadium odds, ESPN coin-flip model and ABC broadcast info
Third-down and red-zone contrasts to watch
Watch third-and-medium snaps closely tonight because the season numbers diverge sharply.
LSU sustains long marches at 50.00 percent on third down (66 of 132) and goes for the jugular on fourth down (13 of 20, 65.00 percent), piling up 42 touchdowns against 11 made field goals (11 of 14, long of 49). Texas converts just 39.52 percent on third down (49 of 124) and 7 of 12 on fourth down (58.33 percent), relying on its defense (13 takeaways, two defensive touchdowns) and 14-of-15 field-goal accuracy to win close fourth quarters.
SEC and College Football Playoff stakes in Week 12
At 7-2 overall and 4-2 in the SEC, No. 6 Texas sits tied with Tennessee right behind Georgia (8-1, 6-1), Alabama (7-2, 5-2) and Kentucky (7-2, 5-2) in the conference standings.
One road loss tonight drops the Longhorns to 7-3 and leaves zero margin in the 12-team College Football Playoff race. Victory in Death Valley pushes Texas to 8-2 with that marquee Sept. 12 win over Ohio State anchoring its resume.
For No. 21 LSU (6-3, 3-3 SEC), beating a top-six opponent under the Saturday night lights salvages a path to nine regular-season wins after the Alabama setback.
Two common SEC opponents: Ole Miss and Mississippi State
Both teams played Mississippi State in October and both faced Ole Miss.
Against Mississippi State, LSU pitched a 31-0 shutout on Oct. 17 while Texas rolled 31-3 two weeks later on Oct. 31. Against Ole Miss, LSU dropped a 32-24 road shootout in Oxford back on Sept. 19, whereas Texas outlasted the Rebels 34-27 in Austin on Oct. 24.
Remarkably, neither offense has lost a single fumble through nine games: Texas has fumbled 14 times and recovered all 14, while LSU has fumbled 11 times without losing one. All 16 combined giveaways between the clubs have come through the air (nine interceptions by LSU, seven by Texas).
LSU's rollercoaster fall and last week's loss to Alabama
LSU has blown out almost everybody it beat and stumbled thrice in conference play, most recently falling 31-13 to Alabama in Baton Rouge on Nov. 7.
Earlier in the year Kiffin's Tigers crushed Clemson 51-10 in the Sept. 6 opener, routed Louisiana Tech 45-14, lost 32-24 at Ole Miss on Sept. 19, thumped Texas A&M 35-6 and hung 63 points on McNeese (63-14). October brought a 35-34 road heartbreak at Kentucky on Oct. 10, followed by a 31-0 shutout of Mississippi State and a 38-17 road victory at Auburn on Oct. 24.
Before Alabama visited last weekend, LSU had outscored Clemson, Louisiana Tech, Texas A&M, McNeese and Mississippi State 225-44 at Tiger Stadium.
Six combined points kept Texas from 9-0
Examine Texas' nine-game ledger and the Longhorns sit two three-point afternoons away from perfection.
Sarkisian's crew opened 4-0 in September by routing Texas State 59-7, edging Ohio State 24-23 in Austin on Sept. 12, handling UTSA 30-6 and winning 20-17 at Tennessee on Sept. 26. Back-to-back 27-24 losses against Oklahoma (Oct. 10) and Florida (Oct. 17) stalled their October surge before Texas rattled off three straight SEC wins: 34-27 over Ole Miss on Oct. 24, 31-3 over Mississippi State on Oct. 31 and 34-20 on the road at Missouri last Saturday.
Winning at Tennessee and Missouri has already proven Texas travels well inside SEC stadiums.
63 combined sacks: Colin Simmons (10.5) and Princewill Umanmielen (8.5)
Pass protection gets zero breathing room in Baton Rouge tonight with two of college football's nastiest pass rushes sharing the same grass.
LSU leads the matchup with 36 team sacks for 221 lost yards and 91 stuffs while holding opponents to 17.7 points and 261.1 total yards per game (176.4 passing, 84.7 rushing). Edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen owns 8.5 sacks and linebacker TJ Dottery leads the Tigers with 68 tackles, backed by seven interceptions (one returned for a touchdown).
Texas answers with 17.4 points and 280.1 yards allowed per game (179.8 passing, 100.3 rushing) plus 27 team sacks for 152 lost yards. Edge terror Colin Simmons leads everybody on the field with 10.5 sacks, defensive back Jelani McDonald tops Texas with 67 tackles, and the Longhorns defense has broken up 42 passes and returned two of its seven fumble recoveries for touchdowns.
Sam Leavitt and a 504.1-yard LSU offense under Lane Kiffin
Yardage numbers explain why Las Vegas favors the home team tonight: LSU piles up 504.1 total yards and 37.1 points per game, outgaining Texas by 143.4 yards per Saturday.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt has completed 215 of 303 throws (71.0 percent) for 2,553 yards, 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions, steering a passing game that averages 324.9 yards and has racked up 251 total first downs (73 more than Texas' 178). Wide receiver Jackson Harris averages 17.0 yards per catch with 47 receptions, 800 yards and seven touchdowns.
Dilin Jones anchors an LSU ground game averaging 179.2 yards and 23 rushing touchdowns as a team, carrying 166 times for 713 yards and seven scores. LSU converts an even 50.00 percent on third down (66 of 132) and 65.00 percent on fourth down (13 of 20).
Arch Manning returns to Louisiana leading a 7-2 Texas squad
Louisiana native Arch Manning walks into Tiger Stadium having thrown for 2,024 yards, 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions on 168-of-254 passing (66.1 percent) across nine starts.
Texas averages 31.1 points (280 total points, 34 touchdowns) and 360.7 yards per game, split between 231.9 passing yards and 128.8 rushing yards. Running back Raleek Brown paces the Longhorns backfield with 109 carries for 537 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and six touchdowns, while wideout Ryan Wingo tops the receiving corps with 42 catches for 523 yards and four scores.
Field-goal kicking has bailed out stalled Texas drives all autumn: Longhorns kickers are 14 of 15 (93.3 percent) with a long of 52 yards, offsetting a 39.52 percent third-down rate (49 of 124).
No. 6 Texas visits No. 21 LSU under the lights in Death Valley, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Welcome to Baton Rouge and VAVEL's Saturday Night Football coverage of No. 6 Texas at No. 21 LSU from Tiger Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, which is 6:30 p.m. CT in Louisiana and Texas and 01:30 CET in Madrid.
Oddsmakers threw the AP rankings straight out the window for this one.
Even though Steve Sarkisian's Texas Longhorns sit 15 spots higher in the poll at 7-2 on the season (4-2 SEC) on a three-game winning streak, DraftKings installs Lane Kiffin's 6-3 LSU Tigers (3-3 SEC) as a 4.5-point home favorite under the Death Valley lights with the total at 46.5 points. We will follow every snap, touchdown and sack right here from the opening kick.
DraftKings lists No. 21 LSU at minus 4.5 (-205 moneyline) and No. 6 Texas at plus 4.5 (+170 moneyline) with the total at 46.5 points. ESPN's Matchup Predictor calls it nearly a dead heat: 52.6 percent win probability for LSU, 47.4 percent for Texas.
Together the two offenses score 68.2 points per game (37.1 for LSU, 31.1 for Texas), while the two defenses allow 35.1 combined points (17.7 and 17.4) and 541.2 combined yards.
ABC carries the national Saturday Night Football broadcast with ESPN Radio on the national call. Kickoff on the natural grass in Baton Rouge is at 7:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. CT (00:30 UTC). Stay with VAVEL for live score updates, touchdowns, Manning and Leavitt's stats, and play-by-play all night.