Instead of a usual draft grades where the author/pundit pontificates on how someone will fit moving forward, this author will use Pro-Football Reference’s Approximate value metric (explained here) to grade each team’s 2012 draft and project their 2015 draft class in terms of AV three years from now. This is because the general feeling among draft pundits is that you truly can’t grade a draft until it’s picks have developed for three seasons, so lets take them at this word. Remember one thing before you start: the rating is based on the average between the team's combined AV for 2012 and their projected AV for 2015. 

17. Detroit Lions

2012 grade: 40. Top 3: Riley Reiff(18), Tahir Whitehead(10), Jonte Green(4).

Biggest Regret: Ryan Broyles over LaVonte David

2015 projected grade: 77. Top 3: Laken Tomlinson(31), Alex Carter(17) and Gabe Wright(12).

Biggest Regret: Abdullah over Tyler Lockett or Grasu.

Rating: 58.5. The Lions’ fans are crowing over their draft and there’s a lot to like about it. Their first four picks all are guys who should contribute immediately or relatively quickly and Tomlinson could give the Lions the best pair of OGs in the NFL. The more you look at who they passed on for their picks, the more you’ll wonder if they could have just done better.

18. New England Patriots

2012 grade: 56. Top 3: Chandler Jones(21), Dont’a Hightower(19) and Alfonzo Dennard(8).

Biggest Regret: Tavon Wilson over LaVonte David

2015 projected grade: 61. Malcolm Brown(18), Trey Flowers(11) and Trae Jackson(10).

Biggest Regret: Jordan Richards over everyone else taken after him.

Rating: 58.5. A very Patriots style draft. They reached for some guys high, they took some steals low. It’s possible that they found a few starters, but draft picks often do something to irritate Belichick and then their Patriots’ career is suddenly over.

19. New Orleans Saints 

2012 grade: 28. Top 3: Akiem Hicks(15), Corey White(10) and Nick Toon(3).

Biggest Regret: Nick Toon over Mike Daniels.

2015 projected grade: 84. Top 3: Hau’oli Kikana(31), Andrus Peat(27) and PJ WIlliams(11).

Biggest Regret: Stephone Anthony over Landon Collins

Rating: 55. They added some nice pieces, but they could have done much better. That said, they did get a number of immediate starters, especially if you count Max Unger as part of the deal. The biggest question is about Stephon Anthony: they’re loaded at ILB after their offseason, so what value are they going to get from Anthony anytime soon?

20. Carolina Panthers

2012 grade: 75. Top 3: Luke Kuechly(40), Amini Silatolu(12) and Josh Norman(9).

Biggest Regret: Having two 4ths back to back, only getting 6 AV from them and passing on Bobby Massie(13) and Nigel Bradham(14).

2015 projected grade: 35. Top 3: Shaq Thompson(15), Devin Funchess(10) and Cameron Artis-Payne(6).

Biggest Regret: Trading up for Funchess.

Rating: 55. Just a bizarre draft for the Panthers. They went full with the “bold moves strategy” and they’re either going to be pure geniuses or the laughing stock of the NFL. Funchess is probably the only immediate contributor, but it’s hard to see how good he’ll be if he was a big target who didn’t produce in the red zone in college.

21. San Diego Chargers 

2012 grade: 47. Top 3: Kendall Reyes(15), Johnnie Troutman(14) and Melvin Ingram(7).

Biggest Regret: Melvin Ingram over Chandler Jones.

2015 projected grade: 59. Top 3: Melvin Gordon(34), Kyle Emanuel(15) and Denzel Perryman(8).

Biggest Regret: Denzel Perryman over Markus Golden.  

Rating: 53. The Chargers went into this draft with a mandate of “do something exciting” and they did that by dealing up for Melvin Gordon. Then things got off the rails. It’s hard to expect much else from this class if Gordon doesn’t pan out. And if Rivers bolts from San Diego because they’re moving to LA, then this will be seen as the first snowflake of a winter of their success.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars

2012 grade: 40. Top 3: Mike Harris(10), Justin Blackmon(9) and Bryan Anger(9)

Biggest Regret: Justin Blackmon over most of the rest of the 1st round after him.

2015 projected grade: 66. Dante Fowler(21), AJ Cann(19) and Rashad Greene(9)

Biggest Regret: TJ Yeldon over Eric Rowe, Jaelen Collins and Ron Darby.

Rating: 53. Dante Fowler is a good but not great prospect. And he’s going to a team that wants him more for exciting the fan base than for what he’ll bring to a team that already was 2nd in sacks in 2014. Outside of that, the Jags did pretty well. Cann, Greene, Sample and Bennett were great picks for a team that could use them all immediately.

23. New York Jets

2012 grade: 35. Top 3: DeMario Davis(20), Antonio Allen(9) and Stephen Hill(4).

Biggest Regret: Stephen Hill over Alshon Jeffery.

2015 projected grade: 70. Leonard Williams(40), Lorenzo Mauldin(10) and Bryce Petty(8)

Biggest Regret: Devin Smith over Dorial Green-Beckham

Rating: 52.5. This is another “no one will remember this draft except for one pick” draft. The Jets fans might get their hopes up about Bryce Petty, but this draft comes down to one equation: how much better is Leonard Williams than Muhammad Wilkerson. If Williams isn’t an improvement, then the Jets will see this draft as a total waste to start the Bowles’ era.

24. Buffalo Bills

2012 grade: 60. Top 3: Cordy Glenn(19), Stephon Gilmore(14) and Nigel Bradham(14).

Biggest Regret: TJ Graham over Russell Wilson.

2015 projected grade: 40. Top 3: Ronald Darby(16), Nick O’Leary(9) and John Miller(8)

Biggest Regret(s): John Miller over Carl Davis

Rating: 50. Without a first round pick since it was dealt for Sammy Watkins, the Bills had to maximize picks. To accomplish this, they played it safe. They took a bunch of big school, big(ger) name prospects hoping to just get solid contributors instead of potential home runs. If anyone’s defensive staff can fix Darby’s problems, it’s Rex Ryan’s so they might do well(in time).

25. Arizona Cardinals

2012 grade: 40. Top 3: Michael Floyd(16), Bobby Massie(13) and Justin Bethel(7). They do get a special award for getting -4 for the pick of Ryan Lindley.

Biggest Regret: Ryan Lindley over literally everyone else taken after him.

2015 projected grade: 60. Top 3: DJ Humphries(31), Shaq Riddick(17) and Markus Golden(16).

Biggest Regret: Gunter over Josh Shaw.

Rating: 50. This draft would have been much better for them if they flipped their first to Minnesota for Adrian Peterson and a 3rd round pick(which was discussed). DJ Humphries should help them very quickly but wouldn’t an “Adrian Peterson, Sambrailo/TJ Clemmings and Eli Harold(with Minnesota’s 3rd round pick” look much better?

26. Dallas Stars 

2012 grade: 26. Top 3: Morris Claiborne(9), Tyrone Crawford/Kyle Wilber(7).

Biggest Regret: Trading up for Morris Claiborne.

2015 projected grade: 71. Top 3: Byron Jones(31), Randy Gregory(24) and Damien Wilson(8)

Biggest Regret: Chaz Green over TJ Clemmings.

Rating: 48.5. A quality draft, at least when it came to the first two picks. If they can keep Randy Gregory out of trouble off the field, they got themselves one hell of a player on the field. And it’s clear that Dallas is going to see which of Gregory and Greg Ellis can behave themselves during 2015 and focus on that one as the cornerstone of their defense.

27. New York Giants

2012 grade: 32 Top 3: Rueben Randle(14), David Wilson(5) and Jayron Holsey(5)

Biggest Regret: David Wilson over Bobby Wagner.

2015 projected grade: 63. Top 3: Ereck Flowers(21), Owamagbe Odighizuwa(18) and Mykkele Thompson(12).

Biggest Regret: Dealing up for Landon Collins.

Rating: 47.5. The Giants needed to reinforce their lines to try and maximize the value of Eli Manning and Jason Pierre-Paul. In this, they did make some headway but all their picks seemed like their Plan Bs(Ereck Flowers) and occasionally desperate Plan Bs(Landon Collins). Their top target was Brandon Scherff, and they sniffed around dealing up a bit for him but after the Redskins took him at 5, they decided to just go with Flowers without exploring any trade options. Collins is being lauded as a fine pick and in the right defense he could thrive, but in Spags’ defense they’ll ask him to do what he’s never done well: cover. Facing the Boys and Eagles in their division, they’d better hope that he suddenly figures out how to cover properly.

28. Green Bay Packers

2012 grade: 30. Top 3: Mike Daniels(11), Nick Perry(8) and Casey Heyward(6).

Biggest Regret: Nick Perry over Courtney Upshaw.

2015 projected grade: 64. Top 3: Quintin Rollins(20), Damarius Randall(17) and Ty Montgomery(11)

Biggest Regret: Randall over Eric Kendricks

Rating: 47. This author commented during the draft that Green Bay appeared to be drafting like the only film they watched was of the NFC title game loss. They focused heavily on fixing the defensive backs, but that wasn’t the real problem. The real problem was that their ILBs were poor and they couldn’t hold back the Seattle defense. They have to hope that they like their DBs at least.

29. Atlanta Falcons

2012 grade: 34. Top 3: Peter Konz(16), Lamar Holmes(10) and Jonathan Massaquoi(6).

Biggest Regret: Lamar Holmes right before TY Hilton.

2015 projected grade: 60. Top 3: Vic Beasley(35), Tevin Coleman(8) and Grady Jarrett(8)

Biggest Regret(s): Jaelen Collins and his failed drug tests over Eric Rowe or Jake Fisher.

Rating: 47. The draft pundits were slobbering over the Falcons’ draft. Why? Beasley is an interesting pick and their got the real reason for his success in Grady Jarrett, but nothing about this draft should excite anyone. They didn’t fix their OL issues, they’re risking that Tevin Coleman can become Kyle Shanahan’s Alfred Morris and too many of their picks had red flags.

30. San Francisco 49ers

2012 grade: 12. Top 3: Joe Looney(3), Trent Robinson(3), LaMichael James/AJ Jenkins(2).

Biggest Regret: AJ Jenkins over Alshon Jeffery.

2015 projected grade: 79. Top 3: Arik Armstead(28), Eli Harold(20) and Mike Davis(13).

Biggest Regret: Tartt over Darby and Rowe.

Rating: 45.5. Wow, that 2012 draft was horrible for the 49ers and it’s amazing that they’ve been able to succeed despite it. In this year’s draft, the 49ers played things very safe. Armstead is a pick that they needed, but it lacked a certain imagination. Eli Harold and Mike Davis should be contributors but the pick that will haunt them is taking Tartt over CBs could could contribute immediately. What makes it an odd pick is that they have a very similar player that they took in the first round last year: Jimmie Ward. And oddly enough Ward and Tartt were childhood friends.

31. Tennessee Titans

2012 grade: 48. Top 3: Kendall Wright(18), Zach Brown(14) and Coty Sensebaugh(7)

Biggest Regret: Mike Martin over TY Hilton and Nick Foles, Zach Brown over LaVonte David

2015 projected grade: 36. Marcus Mariota(18), David Cobb(6) and Jeremiah Poutasi(6)

Biggest Regret: Angelo Blackson over TJ Clemmings

Rating: 42. They’re under the same dynamic as the Bucs are: no one will care about the rest of their picks if Mariota is great or is a bust. As for that, this author thinks that Whisenhunt/Mariota will get along as well as Griffin/Shanahan did from 2013 on. Whisenhunt needs Mariota to save his job, Mariota needs Whisenhunt to put him in a position to succeed by changing his offense to fit his skill set. Professional relationships like this in the NFL never end well: the relationship has to be a fit before it begins(Luck/Colts, Manning/Colts, Ryan/ATL).

32. Oakland Raiders

2012 grade: 20. Top 3: Miles Burris(14), Jack Crawford(2), Juron Criner(and others at 1).

Biggest Regret: Their entire draft. Even gutting their draft for Carson Palmer.

2015 projected grade: 44. Amari Cooper(18), Clive Walford(13) and Mario Edwards Jr(9)

Biggest Regret: Mario Edwards over Eddie Goldman.

Rating: 32. The Raiders had a classic “Al Davis is senile and gotten into a scout’s prescription drugs” Raiders draft. Cooper will be wasted on that bad offense and will be dealt to a team that will use him well in a few seasons. Edwards over Goldman? Then they absolutely wasted their day 3 picks on flyers and UDFAs. You have to feel for Oakland fans, they thought that they were deposing a tyrant when Al Davis passed. Instead, they got Kim Jong-Un.

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About the author
Jon Fox
Just listen to Radiohead when you read my pieces and we will get along just fine.