Portugal will be looking to bounce back from a surprise loss as they take on Slovenia in their round of 16 tie.
Despite fielding a much-changed side against Georgia, Portugal’s 2-0 loss still came as a shock as they saw their perfect start to the campaign ended.
This result raised questions regarding Portugal's roster as they entered the tournament being touted as having one of the deepest squads.
On the other hand, Slovenia enter this match on the back of three draws, boasting a defence that is hard to break down and a strategy focused on frustrating stronger sides.
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Can Portugal break Slovenia down?
Portugal come into this tie boasting an array of attacking talents. They finished the group stage with one of the highest accumulated xG, racking up around two expected goals per game.
Throughout the three games, they have both been fortunate and unfortunate in attack. While their offensive goals ended up three goals lower than their xG, they did benefit from their opposition scoring two own goals.
This implies that they are both creating chances, but also aggressively pressuring their opponents into making mistakes, though Turkey's own goal was very much self-inflicted.
Despite their offensive talent, Portugal may find it difficult to score against this Slovenian side. There is a reason why Slovenia managed to get through Group C undefeated.
Slovenia should line up in a 4-4-2 formation as they have in their previous three group stage games. Sean Dyche would be proud. In this formation, they make it very difficult to break down by defending deep in a low block and denying space for forwards.
Slovenia’s game against England should give a blueprint of how they might line up, as they would be the closest level of competition to Portugal.
Against England, Slovenia sat very deep and rarely threatened to attack. What started as a 4-4-2 eventually became a 4-5-1 with only one lone striker attempting to pressure England’s backline.
Expect a similar set-up against Portugal, especially if they can keep it to nil-nil.
Portugal themselves saw a similarly defensive set-up in their opening game against Czechia. While the formation was slightly different, the strategy was the same and it very nearly paid off.
A major focal point of Portugal’s attack is to get Rafael Leao into one-on-ones with the opposition full-back. Expect this to be limited heavily against Slovenia as he will always have multiple defenders lining up against him.
If Portugal do breakthrough, it will likely be from a defence-splitting pass from either Bruno Fernandes or Bernardo Silva. With how congested Slovenia will make their area of the pitch, intricate passing will be required.
And if Slovenia’s low block isn’t bad enough for Portugal, they will have to contend with Jan Oblak if they do breakthrough.
The Atlético Madrid goalkeeper has been one of the world's best shot-stoppers for the past decade, so even if Portugal create good chances, scoring is not a certainty.
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Can Benjamin Šeško produce some magic?
While defensively Slovenia has been strong, on offence they have struggled.
Over their three group stage games, only England had a lower xG, with Slovenia accumulating only 2.3. This reflects their conservative approach to games, relying on an opportunistic form of attack to score both of their goals so far.
On top of this, they’re facing a defence that has allowed for the second fewest xG. Again, only behind England.
So even in their rare forays into the Portuguese half, they will be faced with a formidable defensive line led by Pepe, who despite being 41, is playing as well as ever. Alongside him is Rúben Dias and together they might form the best centre-back duo in the tournament.
For Slovenia to get any joy against them, they will need something special, and luckily they have a young striker possessing world-class potential.
Benjamin Šeško is everything you want in a modern striker. His size and speed are enough to worry any defender, but despite his physical prowess, his technical skills are not diminished.
He is remarkably adept at using both feet, and his long-range striking ability has already been showcased at the tournament so far.
Despite not scoring yet, he’s been by far Slovenia’s most threatening player, coming close on multiple occasions from well outside the box.
While not the most efficient strategy, spectacular goals have been a prominent feature of Euro 2024 so far, and Šeško is more than capable of adding to what we’ve already seen.
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Will Ronaldo finally score?
Cristiano Ronaldo has managed to go three games without scoring; something you will not see often from arguably the greatest goalscorer in the history of football.
His need for goals even saw him line out against Georgia despite his side having already qualified top of their group. This was perhaps one of the most egregious attempts at stat padding seen at the tournament so far.
Part of the reason why Portugal have managed to look fluid in attack at the tournament so far is due to Roberto Martínez figuring out how to implement Ronaldo into his team.
In recent years, most notably at the last World Cup, Ronaldo has struggled to cohesively play within the team, with the side seemingly playing better in his absence. This resulted in his benching for the knockout rounds in Qatar.
Now, under Martínez, Ronaldo has become an effective role player within the team, as opposed to the team being built around him.
This could be seen with the third goal against Turkey, which saw Ronaldo uncharacteristically square the ball to Bruno Fernandes when many would have expected him to go for goal.
The question is, though, will this keep up? Starting against Georgia is a clear sign that Ronaldo is desperate to add to his legacy and could perhaps lead to fears that he may take a selfish approach against Slovenia.
The longer the game goes without a goal, the more likely we are to see Ronaldo get frustrated. This could lead to him trying to play hero ball and not adhere to the strategy that Martínez has laid out.
For his and Portugal's best interests, Ronaldo needs to remain a role player in this side in order to secure his position going forward, should Portugal qualify.
Against Slovenia’s low block, his aerial presence and movement will be vital. We saw in their game against Serbia that Slovenia struggled against a traditional forward in Aleksandar Mitrović.
As the game went on, they became more and more reliant on the brilliance of Oblak, before finally conceding a last-minute equaliser.
At this stage of his career, Ronaldo is capable of playing this role, and as long as he sticks to the game plan, the chances will come.
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Expectations
Despite many not believing that they are playing to their full potential, others have been impressed by Portugal so far.
Their 3-0 win against Turkey was one of the surprises of the tournament as many fans expected it to be a close affair.
Their defensive solidity combined with their talent upfront means that it is hard to see past Portugal. As great of a tournament as this has been for Slovenia as a nation, they just do not have the overall talent needed to get past a great Portugal side.
It is easy to see this game going in a similar way to the Spain versus Georgia game, where as the match goes on, the stronger side starts to impose more of their will on the weaker until they finally break.
