When reflecting upon the 2024 Formula One campaign, Christian Horner, Helmut Marko and the senior staff at Red Bull Racing are sure to experience a mixed bag of emotions.
On the one hand, Max Verstappen clinched a fourth-straight drivers title, winning nine races and continuing to look the class of the field when push came to shove.
However, a dismal innings from Sergio Perez meant that the team had to relinquish their grasp on the constructors’ championship, finishing third in the standings and 77 points behind eventual winners McLaren.
Perez finished eighth in the drivers’ rankings, 285 points behind Max Verstappen, five shy of the record points gap between two full-time teammates – a record set by Perez in 2023.
Horner described the Mexican’s performance as “very expensive” for Red Bull and it appears the writing is now clearly on the wall – his time is up as a Formula One driver.
At least at Red Bull.
After remaining firm all year regarding his 2025 contract with the team, the first cracks in Perez’s optimism showed post-race in Abu Dhabi, after yet another race with no points.
“We’ll see what happens in the coming days,” uttered the 34-year-old, with perhaps the realisation that his F1 career was over slowly dawning on him.
Red Bull are expected to make a decision on their 2025 lineup in the next week, but that begs the question – who is going to replace Sergio Perez?
Lawson or Tsunoda?
Straight away, there are two outstanding candidates who are both gunning to be Verstappen’s teammate in 2025.
Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson, both currently occupying a seat in Red Bull’s junior team, RB, and both equally keen to make the step up to the front of the grid.
Red Bull have a rich history when it comes to promoting their youth candidates up to the main team, providing the pathway towards world championships for those such as Verstappen and Sebastian Vettel.
Others on the grid such as Alex Albon and Pierre Gasly have also got a shot in the Red Bull cockpit, with Horner and Marko keen to promote internally before looking elsewhere.
So, how do the team pick between Lawson and Tsunoda?
Using the metric of experience, the Japanese driver wins out easily.
Yuki Tsunoda is approaching his fifth year in the sport, whereas Lawson hasn’t even completed a full campaign.
The Kiwi was promoted in place of Daniel Ricciardo, in 2023 as a substitute whilst Ricciardo recovered from a broken wrist, and in 2024 as a permanent swap.
Lawson has impressed immediately throughout both his stints in F1, from outqualifying Verstappen on his debut in Singapore, to scoring points at COTA in his first race back in over a year, beating his new teammate at the first opportunity.
However, the 2024 season has been Tsunoda’s best in the sport by a mile, looking to have comfortably had the upper hand over Ricciardo during the first half of the year, outqualifying the Aussie 12-6.
A calmer, more mature driver seems to have occupied the racetrack throughout the season, leading to consistent performances despite the RB suffering massively through misguided and uncompetitive upgrade packages.
The feeling surrounding Tsunoda is that, if he’s ever going to get promoted, it’s going to happen now.
“Compared to what I’ve done this year, it’s quite clear that I should get a chance,” Tsunoda told select media ahead of the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
“But I don’t know, it’s up to them. It’s Formula One, it’s one of the most political sports as well, and anything can happen.
“Because starting the first race, if I didn’t beat Daniel [Ricciardo], I would be the person sitting on the sofa right now.
“Let’s see who’s driving that seat. Depending on the driver, I may be surprised, but… I don’t know. It’s just a lot of rumours going on, and it’s hard to predict what they think.”
When comparing head-to-head records, it is also Tsunoda who wins out.
He has beaten Lawson 4-2 in races and whitewashed his teammate 6-0 on Saturday’s.
Tsunoda is testing for Red Bull for the first time in Tuesday's post-season session in Abu Dhabi in a pre-arranged outing however, the test is not considered a pre-cursor to Tsunoda landing a coveted promotion even with the 24-year-old being the top points scorer at RB over the past two seasons.
Despite Tsunoda’s test and favourable statistics, the preferred choice for the seat seems to be Lawson.
The 22-year-old has completed just 11 Formula 1 Grand Prix but that doesn’t seem to faze those at Red Bull, who have been known to value talent and raw-ability over experience in the past.
The biggest worry perhaps, surrounding Red Bull and Lawson, is the catastrophic effect an early promotion had on the first few years of Albon and Gasly’s careers.
Both drivers were promoted to Red Bull pre-maturely and couldn’t cope with the demand and pressure of A) fighting at the front of the grid regularly and B) facing up to the seemingly invincible Max Verstappen.
Yet still, Lawson seems to have a cool, calm, unshakeable presence that is undeterred by the possibility of being compared directly against the four-time world champion.
In fact, he seems hungry, welcoming the opportunity to prove himself at the sharp end of the grid – a dream he’s held his entire life.
This mindset, which glows outwardly and resonates with the championship-winning veterans at Red Bull, might just be what puts him ahead of the less self-sure Tsunoda.
“I think it’s something that you’re either born with or you’re not, maybe,” said Lawson, speaking to Planetsport.
“I mean, I feel fortunate that I was born with it, and I’ve always had that belief.
“I think whether you’re fighting in the midfield or at the front of the field, to be perfectly honest, it’s actually no different… the performance, as a driver, we try to achieve in a race weekend is the best possible performance that we can do.
“In a qualifying session, it’s the best possible lap that you can do. Whether you’re in a top team or a midfield team, you can only put that car so far up the grid.
“But, as long as you finish that lap and you feel like you’ve done the best when you finish the weekend and you feel like you’ve done the best job that you can, then your result is going to be what it’s going to be.”
Overall, the chance to learn from Verstappen and better himself as a driver, is currently top of Lawson’s Christmas list.
“For me as a driver, to be able to go in against the guy who’s won four world championships and is well seasoned…. he’s been in that car for a long time,” he said.
“That car is almost… not developed around him, but he’s been a massive part of developing that car and understands it very well.
“In terms of how to drive it, it’s all right there on paper. When you see all the data that he brings in, for me as a driver to be alongside that, to be able to learn from him and have all that access, I think that’s what’s exciting for me about the opportunity… if that opportunity was to come in the future.”
Debate continues to roar on surrounding Lawson and Tsunoda, and who will be promoted to Red Bull in the following weeks.
On one hand you have Tsunoda, who has bided his time and on paper, looks like the obvious candidate to replace Perez at Red Bull, sending a clear message to the future generations at the team’s driver academy – work hard, wait your turn and you’ll be rewarded.
However, the obvious speed and enticing attitude of Liam Lawson seems to fit the Red Bull mold to a Tee and the number of rumours suggesting that the Kiwi will be given the seat are overwhelming.
Yet still, Red Bull haven’t proved to be the most predictable team on the F1 grid when it comes to making big decisions, so in the meantime, we’ll all just have to wait and see.
