Heading into the 2014 Australian Open Rafa Nadal sat comfortably atop the ATP World Rankings. With that said, Novak Djokovic was not too far behind in the overall points race (13,130 to 12,260), in what was essentially a two horse race.
At the time, it appeared as though the “Big Four” had been dwindled down to a “Dominant Duo”. Andy Murray still sat at No. 4 in the rankings, but looked nowhere near the same player we saw during the latter half of 2012 and much of last season after having back surgery in September 2013.
Roger Federer kicked off his Aussie Open at No. 6 in the rankings following what was by far and away one the most disappointing years of his career. After losing to Nadal in the semi-final at Australia, the Swiss Maestro saw his ranking fall all the way down to No. 8, the lowest it had been since October 28th, 2002.
As difficult as that might be to comprehend, watching how things have unfolded on the Men’s Tour over the last seven months or there about has been downright shocking. While the injury bug has played a rather large part in having the Spaniard lose his spot at No. 1, he is now on the verge of having Federer pass him in the rankings as the No. 2 seed in the world.
After putting together what was one heck of finish to the 2013 campaign, following another extended absence away from the game due to a knee injury, it was always going to be an uphill climb for Rafa to replicate his success from a year ago. While Djokovic has managed to maintain his points total, as he currently sits with 12, 290, Nadal has seen his plummet to 8,670.
As of this moment, that leaves him just 640 points ahead of Federer. Following a disappointing 2013, many felt the seventeen-time Grand Slam winner had finally reached the point in his career where we would start to see a marked decline in his overall game. Few seemed to take into account the fact he had battled injury for much of the year and were simply ready to write him off.
To his credit, the thirty-three old worked extremely hard to not only get himself back to full health, but also into the best shape of his playing career and he has been rewarded with a very nice bounce back season. The former world No. 1 has not only won three tournaments on the year, but also played in the final at Wimbledon and made semi-final appearances at both the Australian Open and US Open.
Federer came into the season with all of 4,355 points in his pocket but has seen the number climb to all the way up to 8,030. With Nadal sounding as though he will be returning to action later this month during an exhibition match with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Kazakhstan, the two could find themselves going head-to-head over the final few tournaments of the season to determine who will close out the year at number two in the rankings and one has to like Roger’s chances.
With three of his final four appearances set to go on indoor courts in Basel, France and England, it would be rather difficult to not see Federer continue his usual dominance on the carpet. Last year he lost in the finals to Juan Martin del Potro in Switzerland, the semis in Paris against Djokovic and in London to Nadal.
All three of those results should be able to be replicated, allowing him to defend his points from a year ago. Add his early departure in Shanghai against Gael Monfils in 2013, and suddenly the immediate future could look pretty good for Mr. Federer. Nadal on the other hand, will likely be closing out his year with appearances in Beijing, Shanghai, France, and England. However, considering his lack of court time over the last number of months, it is next to impossible to predict what sort of tennis will see out of him.
While Federer has his misstep in China in to fall back on, the twenty-eight year old is not quite so lucky. Nadal has a pair of final (Beijing and England) and semi-final (Shanghai and France) appearances to deal with, leaving him with little margin for error.
Logic would dictate that Roger Federer will finish the year off at No. 2 in the ATP World Rankings, but counting Rafa Nadal out of the equation would likely be a major mistake. Let’s hope all of us tennis fans are treated to an end of the season that we soon will not forget.
