As a new NBA season approaches, the waves of pre-season Media Day clips and noise have come flooding in. Superstars and their teams are back in the preying eyes of the media and fans alike and thus are the narratives that follow them. Nikola Jokić is sporting a Viking goatee, everyone!
Jokić’s reintroduction to the NBA spotlight after his annual summer months off caving away in his homeland of Serbia brings the discourse of what his season entails as the reigning MVP title. It was his third in four seasons, sandwiched by Joel Embiid’s maiden one, and despite a comfort in securing the award from the look of votes, there's a feeling that the award is at its closest between contenders in years.
Last year's MVP voting:
The award that, in theory, rewards the Most Valuable Player (aka the best player in the league) has been dominated by the league’s most skilled Big Men in the aforementioned Jokić and Embiid, as well as two-time winner Giannis Antetokounmpo—in a sense, showing where the value has been placed in the league—with the last winner that wasn't a forward or center being James Harden in 2018.
So, with that said, who are the favorites to win basketball’s most coveted individual prize? Here are your very early top five candidates from us at VAVEL in 5-1 ranking order:
Jayson Tatum
Tatum has been quite bullish about his summer. An oddity to be an NBA champion and the new cover star of the 2k game, yet on the fringes for much of the gold medal run of arguably the greatest Olympics team ever put together.
"You haven't seen like the best version of Jayson Tatum,” said Tatum himself, speaking at Celtic’s Media Day in third person.
For Tatum and those around them, there's still a feeling of underappreciation of what he’s achieved in the game at the age of 26, but an understanding that comes with the territory of being drafted into the situation that he was in and having such a meticulous plan around him from the get-go.
Trying to pronounce himself as the league’s best player in a team lacking little to no flaw is something voters and the award, in its essence, hold against him.
Tatum is only as valuable as his team needs him to be. He does not need to score on every drive, nor does he need the ball in his hands at every opportunity.
Taking up the task of shutting down the opposition’s best player on any given night? Others can also do that.
Yet, he is still the driving force behind the league’s best team. Last season he led in the following Celtic’s regular season stats: Offensive Win Shares, Defensive Win Shares, and Value over Replacement Player, according to basketball-reference.com.
Is Tatum one of the five best players in today’s NBA?
That’s probably still up for debate. But what isn't is unwavering consistency and confidence in his game and team to perform down the stretch, and that, with a reportedly fixed jumper, is MVP contention-worthy.
Joel Embiid
First of the two MVP winners on this list to feature; as long as Embiid is healthy, he's a nailed-on MVP candidate (...). The key word, though: is healthy.
With last year's new rules requiring players to play at least 65 games with limited exceptions (including a season-ending injury) to be eligible for MVP, as well as other awards such as Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player, the All-NBA teams and the All-Defensive teams, Embiid's validity on any honors list remains a question of his body and not his ability.
The Philadelphia 76ers superstar's absence on last season’s MVP voting was shown to be down to that.
In only 39 games, with a win-loss record of 31-8, he averaged 34.7 points —the most in the league and the highest tally since Harden’s (36.1) in the 18-19 season—and more than his two scoring-winning seasons, two years prior. In short, when Embiid did play, he was other-worldly good.
So, can we trust Embiid and his body to remain intact? Yes and no.
There will be a motivation to compete with the best-supporting cast Embiid has had in his ten years in the league, with Tyrese Maxey and future Hall of Famer Paul George, including the Jimmy Butler days.
But then, at 30, with the way Embiid plays basketball (certainly no Jokić), it's less a matter of mental will and more physical. Tempering his playstyle, including the foul-baiting, will be for the betterment of his and his team's desirable accomplishments.
Nikola Jokic
As mentioned above, Jokic has reigned supreme over the award in recent years. Although there was talk of voter fatigue after his first two triumphs, his third proved that it's hard to get tired of the Serbian's constant and unique brilliance in the center position.
No one has ever played, passed, or maneuvered like him, making his value hard to compare but equally tough to extract in that Denver Nuggets side.
That being said, to purposefully contradict my initial point, another MVP would put him on four alongside Wilt Chamberlain and LeBron James —one-off Michael Jordan and Bill Russell and two behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, essentially putting him on par with the very best the league has ever seen, and, with the fierce competition, that something that would creep into the minds of voters no doubt.
Luka Dončić
Once again, Luka Dončić enters the NBA season as an MVP favorite, according to the betting odds. Nonetheless, on this list, he is not.
Dončić, as he has done for practically his entire NBA career, is ever-improving. For the third time in four years, Luka Dončić finished as a top-6 finalist in last year’s voting with a career-high third place.
Why does betting not match up closer to his actual voting?
Well, in the eyes of those betting, the numbers Dončić puts up as the current holder of the scoring-leader award with 33.9 pts, as well as the offensive wizardry on display that the stat sheet might not record, voting takes into account what he might not do, such as the lapses on the defensive end.
Dončić has garnered such a glowing reputation in the league for not just his offensive might but also his development as a leader in the Dallas Mavericks organization—leading the franchise to their first NBA Finals since 2011—that clinching an MVP title is a matter of when not if.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Just like Dončić, Gilgeous-Alexander's ascent seems to have no limit. Like Tatum, he is the best player on the best team in its respective conference.
SGA will be in and around title contention for years to come alongside yet-to-peak flourishing teammates and a ballclub with their house in order under general manager Sam Presti.
Seconded to Jokic in last season’s voting, there's an understanding of the league, industry, and discourse that Gilgeous-Alexander is an MVP-caliber player in only his second consecutive feature on the list, as he closes on being the first projected NBA’s First $80 Million single-season earner.
Having seemingly established himself as the league's most consistent scorer, with a 30-ball being the norm for the Canadian, his name will continue to be bandied about as one of the best, if not the best, and a title - which seems inevitable in the next decade - will only add to that.
Honourable mentions: Jalen Brunson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Edwards, Victor Wembanyama, Jaylen Brown.
