The English football pyramid is the most renowned for quality across the globe. Up and down the divisions there is talent littered and value to find no matter where you look, so long as you have a fine enough eye for details.
League One is arguably the tipping point between the rags and riches of the game, one where increasingly the ripple between the top and bottom sections of the table becomes starker.
As a Birmingham City fan I take no shame in admitting that gap exists and that we’re partly responsible for it. Whilst I sympathise with the teams further down the pyramid, and do understand the sense of envy and unfairness they feel, I do also believe that our spending is fair game; make boat loads of revenue, spend it.
I’m not sure those sides will see it in the same vein but luckily for them it’s not the Birmingham City’s and Wrexham’s they have to compete with- it’s each other. Just 12 points separate the bottom 9 sides in the division and I’m going to talk through each of their biggest USPs in their bid to beat the drop.
Cambridge United - 24th - 23 points, 31 games played.
Biggest plus- Forward capabilities
Cambridge aren’t too bad going forwards. They’re not brilliant by any stretch but there are 3 sides with lower goal tallies than them this season and 8 sides with worse expected goals (xG) than them.
They line up in a 3-4-2-1 with the front 3 spots all filled by attacking threats. Earlier in the season it was Shayne Lavery, Dan N’lundulu and Brandon Njoku who often took up those spots but they’ve been replaced lately by Ryan Loft, Elias Kachunga and Josh Stokes.
The fact neither Loft or Stokes are in the top 4 scorers for Cambridge this season points to the fact there’s still much more to unlock from both.
Stokes is a really intelligent young option who’s got to grips with league football as the season’s developed. He’s got X factor in his locker and isn’t afraid to try his luck from a range of angles and distances. Loft and Kachunga are able forwards at this level whilst Dom Ballard was also brought in on loan- another exciting youthful forward.
If any of those players can piece together some more consistent form- 6 goals between the starting 3 in the last 7 games- then they’ll give themselves a chance of outscoring their fellow competitors.
Burton Albion - 23rd - 26 points, 31 games played.
Biggest plus- Front two on fire
Jón Daði Böðvarsson was an able option for Wrexham in their automatic promotion bid for the first half of this campaign so when Burton picked him up it felt a coup. He’s certainly proving why.
The powerful no9 has struck up a fantastic partnership with Ruman Burrell, straight out of the 90s textbook of little and large. Böðvarsson is winning around 42% of his duels which ranks him in the top quarter of League One forwards whilst his technical ability is perhaps being overlooked- 1.21 successful dribbles per 90.
He’s playing slightly deeper to allow Burrell to feature on the last line and exercise his physical gifts, his pace causing a handful for often aging League One defenders. He’s raced through on multiple occasions and is dispatching with a confidence that’s unrecognisable from the player who completely squandered a huge opportunity for the Brewers at St Andrews on Boxing Day.
The pair have racked up 10 goals between them across the last 9 games and with a record like that you’re going to give yourself a shot. Burton have just one defeat in 7 and it’s clear to see why- goals change games and these pair give them just that.
Shrewsbury Town - 22nd - 27 points, 31 games.
Biggest plus- Disrupting the big boys
Shrewsbury have been believing since Gareth Ainsworth came in and that belief hasn’t wilted against any opponent. As early as his first game they turned over leaders Birmingham, handing Blues what is still just their 2nd league defeat.
They’ve followed that up with results against Lincoln, Blackpool and Reading as well as a memorable derby day win over Wrexham.
John Marquis has become a real focal point (despite his penalty woes) with 6 goals since Ainsworth’s appointment and his strengths allow them to get upfield from deep areas. They’ve also tightened up at the back- only conceding more than 1 in 1 of their last 11 games, 6 of those against top half sides at the time.
With home games against Bolton, Huddersfield and Reading as well as trips to Birmingham, Wycombe, Lincoln and Barnsley left, they’ll need to replicate some of their underdog heroics to continue to gather vital points.
Crawley Town - 21st - 28 points, 30 games played.
Biggest plus- Stamping their mark on games.
Crawley have been unapologetic in their desire to abide to a progressive style of play. Rob Elliot may be building on the foundations Scott Lindsey laid but his appointment was no coincidence given the philosophy he adopted at Gateshead.
They sit 3rd in the table for average possession (only bettered by Birmingham and Bolton), which in turn should lead to more chance creation. They don’t make enough of it in terms of shots, xG created and so on but they are getting into good areas and their shallow team depth and high octane man to man out of possession style helps sustain that.
It’s led to them scoring 3 or more on 8 occasions across all competitions this season with several away from home. They’re a young group of players- average age starting XI vs Bolton, 23.1 yrs- and perhaps one or two may take the bull by the horns as the season reaches boiling point.
In Panutche Camara and Kamara Doyle they have two talented midfielders who can have a really big impact in the engine room. They can supply their energetic array of forwards including Will Swan and Rushan Hepburn-Murphy.
With so many games left to play at home (9) including the visits of 6 of the bottom 9 it’s crucial that they’re able to dominate the game with the impetus on them to gain 3 points. The play style certainly allows for that.
Peterborough United - 20th - 31 points, 31 games played.
Biggest plus- Individual quality
Not many would have pitched Posh in a relegation battle despite their overseeing a string of crucial departures in the summer as a result of their transfer policy. Darren Ferguson may have called this squad the “softest group” he’s ever worked with but there’s a reason they were expected to steer clear of the drop.
Posh certainly have talent despite any questions over their mentality or attitude. Kwame Poku was showing he’s streets above this level before suffering hamstring fracture earlier in the season. He’s set to return in February and will undoubtedly be the best individual amongst this nonet of teams.
Ricky-Jade Jones and Emmanuel Fernandez were both subject to Championship interest whilst Hector Kyprianou attracted admirers from the league above in the summer.
With such a young squad and a manager in Ferguson who’s typically been an expert in development I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few characters in the squad drastically improve their levels between now and May 3rd.
Northampton Town - 19th - 33 points, 31 games played.
Biggest plus- New manager bounce
Kevin Nolan’s appointment was certainly an eyebrow-raiser particularly after what previous manager Jon Brady had managed on a shoestring budget previously but he’s hit the ground pretty quickly.
Cobblers have only lost 4 games since he came in, all of which came against top half opposition whilst they’ve taken points off Wycombe and Huddersfield. They’ve now played 17 of their 23 away games meaning they have a decent proportion of their run in at home which should provide a decent base.
They’ll be more confident facing sides like Blues, Barnsley and Stockport on familiar territory and given their tendency to upset the odds lately there’s no reason they can’t do it again with all those in their next 6 games.
Whilst Kevin Nolan has been in charge for a decent chunk of games now he’ll hope he can continue to breathe new life into the XI with a favourable finishing trio of games- crunch ties against Shrewsbury and Crawley before hosting Wigan on the final day. Nolan’s impact may aid their cause with some difficult fixtures on the horizon before a set of their more winnable fixtures come around.
Wigan Athletic - 18th - 34 points, 29 games played.
Biggest plus- Keeping goals out.
It certainly hasn’t been the most exciting viewing for Wigan fans at the DW this season, only seeing 13 home goals (the least of any side) and games generally containing only 30 goals (the joint lowest of any sides’ contests.)
However their limited success has been based upon a foundation of defensive solidity. Wigan have conceded the 6th least goals this season, their tally of 30 against being the lowest amongst any bottom half side and only being bettered by top 6 sides.
Sam Tickle is a real starlet in goal whilst Jason Kerr and Toby Sibbick have both impressed me. They’re performing relatively closely to the underlying numbers suggesting they can sustain this steely defensive streak, one that has carved out impressive away form for them.
They’ve taken more points on the road than any of the other sides spoken about in this piece, just one shy of 3rd placed Wrexham. With visits to Crawley, Burton, Shrewsbury, Northampton and Exeter this could be key.
It’s not only their defensive stuff which has caught my eye, the wingers are capable of moments of magic but they’ll need the defensive stability to stand firm if they’re to have any success going forward- particularly having lost key man Aasgaard in January.
Bristol Rovers - 17th - 35 points, 30 games played.
Biggest plus- Home form
By this point in the season I would have expected “the Gas” to perhaps be sitting a little lower. Despite their decent outlay before a ball was kicked I was hugely disappointed by them at St Andrews, perhaps only Cambridge showing less promise of the sides that have visited thus far.
However that’s been the story of their travels whilst they’ve been generally solid at the Mem. They’ve picked up the best home PPG ratio of all the sides in the discussion- Posh level on points but having played more games on home turf- and have pulled off results against 3 of the 4 top sides that have visited.
They’ve only been behind 4 times at the break when playing host whilst also finishing strongly- only 1 side scoring more home goals in the final 15 minutes than them.
Whilst they’re not big scorers at home they keep more goals out than all of the sides below them which has provided the bedrock for any success. They’ll be wary of home games against Birmingham, Huddersfield and Bolton but they still have to welcome Burton and Exeter as well as poor travellers Reading, Stevenage and Rotherham so it bodes relatively positively for beating the drop.
Exeter City - 16th - 35 points, 30 games played.
Biggest plus- Joe Whitworth
It’s difficult to find positives for Exeter in the midst of such a barren run of results. The numbers have finally caught up with them, having substantially over performed defensive underlying numbers earlier in the season but there is a reason they were so strong in the first place.
Exeter acquired the skill set of young goalkeeper Joe Whitworth this season on loan from Crystal Palace and he certainly caught attention with a string of impressive displays for the first part of his Grecians’ career. Whilst his numbers have taken a dive lately there’s still that same player in there that’s racked up 10 clean sheets.
He has all the raw attributes you want in a keeper; solid distribution, decent command of his area despite his small stature and an ability to pull off the extraordinary when it comes to saves- something they may rely on.
Despite the volume of goals conceded lately, they do face all of the teams who rank in the bottom half for goals scored with the exception of Stevenage, and with centre half additions of the experienced Alex Hartridge, as well as Ed Turns and Cheick Diabate, there’s the potential for his defensive unit to be a little better organised.
So that’s all 9 argued for. Which cases do you make stronger than others? And who just has that feeling about them?
