Liverpool are now on 63 points in the Premier League with six games to go. But how many points are the Reds likely to need in order to secure a top four finish?
This article looks at their main rivals - Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal - and how many points they are all likely to pick up, in order to assess what Liverpool need from their last six games.
Manchester City
City’s fixtures along with predicted results are:
Southampton (A) - Draw
Manchester United (H) – Win
Middlesbrough (A) – Win
Crystal Palace (H) – Win
Leicester City (H) – Win
West Brom (H) – Win
Watford (A) – Win
Projected Points – 80
Man City have easily the nicest fixtures remaining of any of Liverpool’s top four rivals. Moreover, they’re also the best team, which means that on paper, they should be winning almost all of their games.
City’s last five games are all extremely winnable, particularly as some of their opposition will almost certainly be winding down their season, having secured their objectives for the year. Home games against Palace, Leicester and West Brom should be relatively straightforward, which Watford and Middlesbrough are unlikely to offer much resistance either. That said, if City have already secured a top three spot, they may also slow down as the season reaches its conclusion, as they are still in the FA Cup.
City’s two big games are away at Southampton, and at home to Manchester United, their next two league fixtures. A reasonable prediction from these two games would be four points, but two points is also plausible. United are extremely unlikely to win at the Etihad, as their record against the top six is pretty poor and they were absolutely ripped apart by City for large portions of their 2-1 defeat to the Blues. Nevertheless, United could still scrape a point. Southampton away is not the toughest fixture on the calendar, but certainly will not be easy, and a draw is probably the most likely outcome.
On balance, whilst City could easily drop more than the two points that are projected, leaving them somewhere slightly below 80 points, it is highly unlikely that they will drop below 75, leaving Liverpool with a tough task to hold onto 3rd place.
Manchester United
United’s fixtures and projected results are:
Chelsea (H) – Draw
Burnley (A) – Draw
Man City (A) – Loss
Swansea City (H) – Win
Arsenal (A) - Draw
Tottenham Hotspur (A) – Loss
Southampton (A) – Draw
Crystal Palace (H) – Win
Projected points – 67
Man United have the hardest fixtures left, as they still face four of the top six, along with tough trips to Southampton and Burnley. As such, they’re projected to pick up just two more wins, drawing four of those tough fixtures and losing at the Etihad and White Hart Lane. Whilst accurately predicting that many interesting fixtures is incredibly tough, United are unlikely to be favourites for any of their remaining games against the top six, especially as Arsenal, Tottenham and Man City have lost just three home games collectively all season.
Whilst it’s possible that United will secure a result at both the Emirates and the Etihad, you would thoroughly expect them to lose at least two of their games against Chelsea, Tottenham and Man City.
Whilst it’s highly plausible that United could pick up a few more points than they are currently projected, with both Burnley and Southampton away winnable games, it’s almost equally likely that they’ll end up dropping more points than expected in some fixtures. If they get more than 70 points it’ll be extremely impressive. It’s likely Liverpool will need just three wins from their remaining six games to finish ahead of United.
Arsenal
If based on current projections, Liverpool are unlikely to finish ahead of Man City, or behind Man United, then that means their season is likely to hinge on whether or not they finish ahead of Arsenal. Here are Arsenal’s fixtures and predicted results:
Middlesbrough (A) – Win
Leicester City (H) – Win
Spurs (A) – Loss
Man United (H) – Draw
Southampton (A) – Draw
Stoke City (A) – Win
Sunderland (H) – Win
Everton (H) – Draw
Projected points – 69
This was the hardest one to try and project. Starting off with the games Arsenal should be winning: Middlesbrough, Sunderland and Leicester. Even with Arsenal’s wretched away form they should be beating Boro, whilst neither Sunderland nor Leicester will expect to get anything from the Emirates.
The remaining games then, will contain plenty of points for contention. With Arsenal’s wretched away form, four points from tough trips to Stoke and Southampton may be optimistic, but neither team will be at their best and Arsenal will need the points more. Home games against Man United and Everton are must-win matches for the Gunners, and whilst Everton on the final day is a game that they could easily win, if Man United turn up then they could really cause Arsenal some problems.
The only loss predicted for Arsenal is in the North London Derby. Spurs have a phenomenal home record and Arsenal’s big game away form is shambolic. Nevertheless, it’s the North London Derby, so absolutely anything can happen; indeed that might be the point that reignites Arsenal’s stuttering season.
Looking at the worst case scenario for Liverpool fans: Arsenal beat Everton, Southampton and Man United, and draw with Spurs, that means that they have 76 points. That would require Liverpool to win five of their last six games, or pick up four wins and two draws to supplant them. However, it’s more likely that Arsenal end up in the low 70 point region, assuming they breach the 70 point threshold at all.
Conclusion
Whilst there is a lot still to play for, and it’s very much touch and go, it’s looking as if three more wins, putting Liverpool onto 72 points, along with maybe a draw or two, will be enough for the Reds to make top four.