Brighton and Hove Albion aim to break a seven-match winless Premier League run as they welcome Arsenal this weekend.
Head coach Fabian Hürzeler has faced his first criticism as Seagulls boss amidst the side’s recent dry spell, with fans starting to question his tactical approach.
While a game against the Premier League’s second-placed side would not appear the time to experiment, there could be changes that test a Gunners side without star man Bukayo Saka.
With a significant Saturday evening television audience set to tune in, the tactical match-up will be under the microscope and Brighton have plenty to prove.
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Finding attacking solutions
Injuries have hurt Brighton in recent weeks, and the Seagulls will again be without both their orthodox striking options in Danny Welbeck and Evan Ferguson for this contest.
Former Arsenal forward Welbeck has been out with an ankle injury since a 1-1 draw with Southampton in late November, and in his pre-match press conference, Hürzeler admitted there was not a “clear schedule for when he will be back.”
The German boss told reporters: “It can take two, three, four more weeks.”
With Ferguson also ruled out by a foot injury, the Seagulls are left with the likely scenario of João Pedro starting in the number nine role as he did in the previous two matches.
Brajan Gruda and Julio Enciso both started in the attacking roles behind Pedro against Brentford and Aston Villa, but Kaoru Mitoma, Georginio Rutter, Simon Adingra and Yankuba Minteh also got time in those roles.
Against Villa, the Seagulls rediscovered an attacking production line that had rarely been used since the early days of Roberto De Zerbi’s reign, with Pedro acting as a wall to bounce passes off of, and notching assists for both goals.
This was as much a result of Villa’s intent to control possession as it was a deliberate ploy from Hürzeler, as the space that opened up on the counter enabled Pedro to drift into dangerous pockets.
In this sense, the Brazilian played a similar game to his opposite number Ollie Watkins, and it was no surprise that the pair ended the game with the highest number of key passes played; four for Watkins, three for Pedro.
While Arsenal’s midfielders Declan Rice and Mikel Merino will be expected to play deeper than Villa’s Youri Tielemans and Boubacar Kamara and shield the visiting defence, Pedro is a sufficiently wily operator to find space elsewhere.
The Seagulls’ success will depend on those around him, and while there will be rotation during the game, one of Gruda, Enciso, Adingra, Rutter, Mitoma and Minteh must be more efficient in front of goal.
From the 111 shots the sextet have had in the Premier League this season, they have bagged just nine goals.
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Set-piece survival
While the focus on Arsenal’s set-piece prowess has been inflated in the media this season, there is truth behind the discussed trends.
The Gunners are the Premier League’s foremost set-piece threat with ten goals from those situations, and also rank in the league’s top five sides for the amount of corners taken and the number of crosses delivered.
Brighton have underperformed at set-pieces in the last few seasons, conceding more goals than they have scored from dead-ball situations in each of the last four seasons.
This has been in spite of the presence of some obvious aerial talents in the side, suggesting poor organisation which has again been questioned this season.
In the 3-1 home defeat to Crystal Palace, for example, poor marking from a corner allowed the Seagulls’ bitter rivals to take the lead through Trevoh Chalobah.
However, recent practice against Palace, West Ham and Aston Villa – who each rank in the league’s top five sides for most set-piece goals – will benefit Brighton.
Additionally, the absence of Saka weakens the Gunners’ dead-ball threat.
Against Brentford, Mikel Arteta had to rely on Ethan Nwaneri and Gabriel Martinelli delivering the ball, with the club’s other typical taker, Rice, on the bench.
Arsenal struggled to pose as potent a set-piece threat as a result, although it is worth noting that Brentford are the Premier League’s best side at defending set-pieces, with just two goals conceded this season and a league-high 16.9 headers won per match.
Hürzeler will be keen to take a leaf out of the Bees’ book in this regard, which could see some very deliberate routines used and more physical players selected.
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Midfield rethink
Given how many top-quality midfield options Arsenal boast and how much of the Gunners’ play is focused through central areas, Brighton’s key tactical niche under Hürzeler appears highly vulnerable in this fixture.
Carlos Baleba, probably the Seagulls’ player of the season so far, has often been left to operate on his own in midfield while his apparent partner – Yasin Ayari, Matt O’Riley or Mats Wieffer – offers another option in the attack.
The risk involved in this tactic is that it leaves Brighton requiring excellent one-on-one defending when they lose possession; something they have not consistently had this season.
Had Rice not been controversially sent off in this season’s original meeting between the sides – a 1-1 draw at the Emirates Stadium – for example, Brighton would not have got a point.
Pedro’s equaliser stemmed from a through ball from Lewis Dunk into the space Rice would have filled, while the Seagulls found it easier to defend against a side who had lost their numerical advantage in midfield.
If the Seagulls are to not rely on a red card to gain points on this occasion, they must surely change their approach for at least 60 minutes.
Coupled with the need for more physical players in defence, it would not be a surprise to see the smaller frame of Ayari replaced by the more defensive-minded Wieffer, or for Enciso to be replaced by a more versatile option like O’Riley or Rutter.
Should they still be in the game after an hour, then could be the time for Brighton to impose their style.
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Many ways to skin a cat
Though their squad profiles differ considerably, Brighton and Arsenal are shown to be remarkably similar this season in many statistics.
They boast similar possession figures – Brighton’s average being 52.8% and Arsenal's 55.4% - and take a similar number of shots per 90 minutes (14.8 to 14.1), while they also win an eerily similar number of aerial challenges (13.3 to 13.7 per match).
The teams are both experiencing frustrations in front of goal too, with Brighton underperforming their expected goals total by 3.86 (having scored 28 goals), and Arsenal below expectations by 2.01 (having scored 37).
At the Amex Stadium, both sides will be expected to build their attacks gradually out of defence in similar fashion, and the outcome of the contest is likely to come down to individual duels.
Arsenal have sufficient individual quality to defeat Brighton, but a glimmer of opportunity has been opened by Saka’s hamstring issue and Jurrien Timber’s one-game suspension.
Nwaneri and whoever Arteta plumps for at right-back – either Thomas Partey or Myles Lewis-Skelly – present an obvious weakness down one flank, which Brighton will try to make the most of with their usual strength on the left.
Their will be many tactical facets to the match and both managers will need to adapt on the fly, making for a fascinating battle.
Given how badly both teams need a win - Arsenal to keep leaders Liverpool within range and Brighton to finally break their winless run - the two sides are certain to go all-out.
With many great meetings between the sides in recent history, this latest chapter promises huge entertainment.
More importantly than all, it also has a small window of opportunity for Brighton.
