After impressive back-to-back wins over Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle either side of the October international break, Brighton and Hove Albion aim to make it three on the bounce as they welcome a Wolverhampton Wanderers side who have picked up just one point from their first eight games.
Brighton have had an impressive start to their Premier League campaign, currently sitting in fifth, but they will hope not to fall back into old habits and slip up against a struggling outfit.
Brighton’s one loss this season came in a chaotic game at Stamford Bridge as they lost 4-2 to Chelsea.
Outside of that, Fabian Hürzeler's side have ticked off an array of high-profile performances, with their demolition job at Goodison Park on the opening day before getting the better of Manchester United at The Amex and upsetting the odds to claim an impressive point at Arsenal.
However, things perhaps could have been even sweeter for the Sussex side had they compounded these results in their home games against Ipswich Town and Nottingham Forest, after being held to disappointing home draws by both sides.
This has been a common theme for Brighton in recent years, with the Seagulls dropping points at home to Fulham, Sheffield United, Burnley, Everton and this weekend's opponents, Wolves last season.
Brighton ultimately ended up finishing 15 points off of a European berth last season, but had a few of these draws at home to bottom-half teams have been turned into wins, the Albion could have made another serious challenge for the top seven.
Hürzeler's side welcome Wolves for the second time in six weeks after the two sides met in the Carabao Cup Second Round back in September, with the Seagulls emerging 3-2 victors.
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Theory or juju?
Many could put Brighton’s struggles against the so-called ‘lesser’ sides in the Premier League as mere coincidence, and whilst that may well play a part, there is also some statistical reasoning behind these results.
In Brighton’s last two games, for example, they had significantly less of the ball than their opponents, averaging out at around 40% across both games.
They also created fewer chances in both games, having 11 efforts to Tottenham’s 13 and mustering up less than half the shots than that of Newcastle with just 10 against 21 at St. James’ Park.
Brighton’s ability to hurt teams in transition has seen them garner success against teams who are going to have more of the ball, but the flip side of that is that they have found it more difficult to break down teams who try and be more compact behind the ball.
In the game against Ipswich, Brighton had 70% possession, with a staggering 21 efforts on goal.
Almost half of these shots ended up being blocked due to the Ipswich numbers behind the ball.
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Finding the holes in their opponents
Despite Wolves’ poor defensive record, Gary O’Neil has during his tenure adapted to be more pragmatic against bigger attacking threats.
This can be seen in their home games against Liverpool and Manchester City in which, whilst they ended up losing, they held out for long periods of time and were only ousted by a singular goal, with City needing late heroics to claim all three points last weekend.
Whether it’s a 4-3-3, a 4-2-3-1 or even a 4-4-2 that is implicated by Hürzeler, Brighton can expect Wolves’ wing-backs Rayan Ait-Nouri and Nélson Semedo to tuck into a back five out of possession and really make it difficult for Brighton to break them down.
Georginio Rutter claimed 16 assists last season for Leeds against teams of whom many opted to try and absorb what they had to offer, with the big Frenchman frequently providing the key to unlocking compact defences.
As well as that, Rutter also provided the assist for Danny Welbeck’s winner at Newcastle, albeit in a much more smash-and-grab fashion.
After taking a couple of games to adjust, the young talent is going to be pivotal in finding a way through against Wolves.
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Opportunity calls for Ferguson
It has been an extremely difficult 2024 for Evan Ferguson so far.
After showing incredible promise, being dubbed as Ireland’s new hope and even being linked with some mega moves, the youngster has struggled desperately with injury and form which has seen his career stutter.
Last year saw his first full season in and around the first team, but just seven goal contributions represented his difficulties in maintaining fitness and therefore a starting place.
Unfortunately, when he did get an opportunity, they often went begging.
However, with a rejuvenated Welbeck picking up an injury following his winning goal last week, there may be an opportunity for Ferguson to take centre stage.
Off the back of his first league start since March, Brighton fans will be urging the 20-year-old to step in and make sure his name remains in the conversation when talking about Brighton goalscorers.
