In an unexpected final, the eighth seed Carla Suarez Navarro will play the un-seeded Jelena Ostapenko for the title at the Premier 5 level Qatar Total Open, held on hard courts in Doha.
Recent Results
Suarez Navarro has regained some long lost form through the first two months of this year, reaching the semifinals at Brisbane and the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. Despite losing her opening match in Dubai last week to Caroline Garcia, the Spaniard has bounced back commendably and will be at a new career high of number six next week, regardless of the outcome of the final.
The 27-year-old had a fair amount of points to defend in Doha this week, having accounted for Petra Kvitova before losing to Lucie Safarova in the semifinals last year. After receiving a first round bye, the eighth seed hasn't looked back in making straight sets progress into the final.
Her 6-2 6-0 semifinal victory over the third seed and world number three Agnieszska Radwanska was particularly shocking given the fact Suarez Navarro had won only four games when the pair last met at the Australian Open. In Doha, Suarez Navarro scarcely made a mistake as she bossed an un-characteristically listless Radwanska around the court with her heavy topspin to complete the rout.
Ostapenko had suffered a terrible start to the season coming into Doha, winning only one of four main draw matches and failing to even qualify last week in Dubai. The Latvian had made more headlines due to her on court spat with Naomi Broady at the beginning of the year in Auckland, where the Brit insisted her opponent be disqualified after she'd thrown her racket in anger and hit a ball-boy.
Unsure that she'd even make the main draw, the 18-year-old has carved her way through some tough opposition to reach this stage, namely Svetlana Kuznetsova 7-6(5), 6-0 in the second round and the struggling fifth seed, world number eight Petra Kvitova 5-7, 6-2, 6-1 in the third round. Ostapenko then recovered from 1-5 down in the first set of her semifinal against Andrea Petkovic whilst the German struggled with a left leg injury. Down 5-7, 0-1, Petkovic retired and Ostapenko moved into her biggest career final on her debut in the city.
Past Experience
Suarez Navarro has a terrible record in finals, winning only one of the nine she's contested at Oeiras in 2014. The third Spanish woman at the time to crack the top ten last May, the current world number eleven has twice played finals of this size, losing to Serena Williams in Miami and Maria Sharapova in Rome last year. With all due respect to Ostapenko, this is a golden opportunity for Carla Suarez Navarro to prove that she's overcome the mental demons that have haunted her on big occasions in the past, a fact that's no doubt contributed to her failure to win any of the five Grand Slam quarterfinals she's contested in her career.
Ostapenko is one of a number of teenagers to recently make a name for themselves on the senior tour, alongside the likes of Belinda Bencic, Daria Gavrilova and Darya Kasatkina. The junior Wimbledon champion of 2014 reached her first WTA final last September, losing to Annika Beck at Quebec City to earn a career high of number 77. Now ranked down at number 88, Ostapenko is already the lowest ranked player to grace a final of this size since the tour was re-formatted in 2009. If she were to win, she would be the lowest ranked winner of an event this big since Kim Clijsters won Indian Wells in 2005 whilst ranked 133 in the world, back when the Premier Mandatory/Premier 5 level events were grouped together as Tier 1 Tournaments.
Head-to-Head
Ostapenko crushed Suarez Navarro in their only previous meeting 6-2, 6-0 in the first round of Wimbledon last year. It has to be said that the grass is obviously one of the Latvian's best surfaces, given her junior success, whilst it is the Spaniard's worst. In fact, that particular defeat was the third of a total sequence of eight successive losses Carla Suarez Navarro would suffer during the summer of 2015.
Suarez Navarro plays a typical Spanish game, centered around heavy topspin groundstrokes off of both wings. Her one-handed backhand is undoubtedly the best of its kind in the women's game, and her willingness to play more aggressively has seen her become much more successful on the hard courts over the past year. Unlike their last meeting, the ball will certainly rise much higher here in Doha, and Suarez Navarro must look to do as she did in the semifinals and get Ostapenko moving off the court with her spin.
In contrast, Ostapenko plays a much riskier game based on flatter, faster groundstrokes. Her first serve is much more of a weapon than her opponent's, so it will be no surprise if she hits more aces whilst also doing plenty of damage on the return. The biggest question mark hovering over Ostapenko is how well she'll manage the nerves in her biggest final to date, as well as her renowned fiery temper should things not go her way early on.
Overall, Suarez Navarro will never have a better opportunity than this to prove that she can win significant tournaments such as this. Rather than perpetuating the negative trend of losing big matches, the Spaniard must look to step up and attack if she is to avoid being overwhelmed once again by the occasion and an inspired opponent who has nothing to lose.