If you are standing still, you are moving backwards in the Premier League.
Some might say that Newcastle have pedalled backwards in the transfer window, which has created uncertainty at a football club that seemed to have a guaranteed upward trajectory.
Since the relieving takeover in 2021, many conceded across the league that the tremendous financial backing would accelerate the Magpies to the ascendency of European football.
Those more sensible would use terms such as ‘trust the process’, ‘this is a project’, and ‘Rome was not built in a day’. Momentum is remarkable, a phenomenon in sports which allows those involved to harness great energy and translate it into results.
The Champions League qualification secured at the end of the 2022/23 season was a false horizon with the fortune of hindsight. It was a momentum-based achievement for a set of players who were talented, but not all top-of-the-range.
Either way, it was a time to stabilise and build a squad, not a team. The latter was the approach, which once again, in hindsight, was wrong.
The big-name faces that signed that summer included Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon and Sven Botman, all for a cumulative £125m.
Matt Targett and Nick Pope also arrived, but Newcastle made barely £10 million from departures.
While they are key players for the Toon, the evidence is clear that these transfer windows were about bringing in gigantic names, not building a squad.
The following year saw Sandro Tonali, Harvey Barnes and Tino Livramento join for substantial amounts, while slightly greater income was gained from the departures of Allan Saint-Maximin and Chris Wood.
Compile both those transfer windows with diligent and strict PSR rules and the recipe spells disaster – Newcastle were on the defensive for the transfer window just gone, rather than attacking to improve the squad.
This has spiralled into a frustrating month, and doubts have risen about this project's ability to elevate Newcastle to success.
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PSR chat is getting boring
Internally at Newcastle United, every discussion involving the term PSR is probably met with a gigantic sigh.
This dark cloud has ruled over the club this summer. Drunkenly the club staggered into this transfer window without realising the magnitude of the issues.
The lack of European qualification was a painful hit for the club, with revenue taking a hit compared to the previous season. With that stream hitting a dam, the window was about calculation and intelligence in a position of less funds.
A tough pill for Eddie Howe while the other teams improve around him, Newcastle were found scrambling at the back end of June to meet the sustainability rules deadline.
Losing promising young players Yankuba Minteh and academy graduate Elliot Anderson to Premier League clubs was an ugly beginning to what was to follow.
In a help-me, help-you situation Newcastle signed goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos from Nottingham Forest for £20 million, a bizarre transfer considering the Magpies already had hold of Nick Pope and Martin Dubravka.
Lewis Hall on a permanent was a make-sense transfer based on his impressive showings in the season prior. William Osula also joined, meaning Newcastle had a positive net spend heading into the season.
The funds were there for a statement signing on Tyneside, and the club launched a pursuit for England centre-back Marc Guehi.
Do not take Steve Parish for a fool though. The Crystal Palace boss does not need to roll over and release another world-class asset. Take that bid and reject it, because Marc Guehi is not one to force a move.
In a drawn-out Augustan saga, the pile of rejected bids stacked high without a Plan B. Oh right, there is a Plan B is there? It is just Plan A was so brilliantly devised I would not have thought we would need a Plan B.
Spoiler alert – they needed a backup plan.
The transfer window concluded, and Newcastle failed to sign the main target and to re-strengthen in key areas. Surely the manager is going to be delighted about this.
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Eddie Howe is frustrated
Yeah, no, he is not best pleased. Speaking on his deadline day press conference, which was mysteriously delayed, he outlined the disappointment of the lack of business from Newcastle.
“This window continues to be difficult for us. We’re in a really difficult situation with PSR and available funds, attracting the right players we think can make a difference," Howe said.
"It's such a delicate spot for us we've got to try and hit it right and if we don't then probably doing nothing, as frustrating as that is, is the best option.
"There is a feeling that we have a good squad, but a feeling there are a few areas we felt we needed to strengthen.”
Mismanagement and underdelivering by the head coach will only discourage the motivation of the man in charge of the team. As recently as Julen Lopetegui at Wolves, managers are happy to leave if the backing is not what they require.
With the England job a possibility, Howe will consider his options. His age might be a motivating factor to remain at club level, but some knocks are impossible to ignore and Newcastle need to ensure support is given.
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Summer restructure disrupting business
Changes were afoot atop the Newcastle hierarchy this summer, most prominently in the form of Amanda Staveley who had played a crucial role in the early stages of the takeover.
Eddie Howe had built a strong rapport with Staveley and the relationship was harmonious and effective in the initial building blocks.
The change, although potentially decided before the announcement, came at a bizarre time as Newcastle were gearing up to begin preparations for the new season.
Despite that, the timing of the hiring of experienced sporting director Paul Mitchell was most mystifying.
Although the long-term prospects will be unaffected, Mitchell joining amid a transfer window has to be strategically damaging.
Scouts spend months investigating players to fit the profile of the club ahead of the summer transfer window, and while Newcastle are not fixated on bringing in young players, the vision had no potential to shift even if Mitchell saw wrongdoings.
This was bound to affect those involved in brokering transfer deals in a complex few months at the club, where stability was disrupted at the top and uncertainty of the club’s needs was present with ongoing financial issues.
This must not be a repeat next summer, or those surrounding the club will ask questions about the direction in which the club is heading.
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Painful departure in 2025?
Bolstering the squad might mean a step back for Newcastle next summer, and a painful departure of a big name might circumstantially make sense.
Great squads win titles. Great teams fall short. Countless times, players from the bench have rescued Manchester City. At this moment, Newcastle have great players but the support from the bench is not.
The injury crisis, which most teams suffer each season, affects different teams based on their depth. Having a strong defence is more powerful than owning a nuclear weapon.
That philosophy might prove a way forward at St. James' Park. Newcastle lacks the overall squad to advance further than this current position while their direct competitors strengthen.
Therefore, a big name leaving will enable an investment in the squad. The most make-sense of those will be either Bruno Guimaraes or Anthony Gordon, whose worth easily exceeds £50 million.
A Champions League qualification might subside the need to sell, but otherwise, the Magpies are not creating sustainable wealth to spend in the market.
And with that, greater issues which have been relentlessly highlighted will repeat themselves. A recline in progress can stagnate and cause important figures to move on.
All facets of the club must work intelligently in the next 12 months. This is an imperative and delicate time.
