The San Diego Padres suffered through a brutal 2014 season, marred with the death of two beloved icons, the firing of their GM and a controversy over naming an outdoor area at Petco Park after Bud Selig.
On the field, the Padres were by far the worst offense in all of baseball. The team finished dead-last in all of baseball in batting average (.226), on-base percentage (.292), runs (535) and slugging percentage (.342). The team has since relieved hitting coach Phil Plantier of his duties, but the team has bigger problems than the coaching staff.
Last offseason, then-Padres general manager Josh Byrnes gambled on rebound seasons from Yonder Alonso, Chase Headley and continued progress from Jedd Gyorko and Will Venable to improve the offense. Suffice to say, it didn’t work, as Byrnes was ultimately fired, Headley was traded and Alonso missed half of the season with a wrist injury.
On the pitching side of things, the Padres have a deep core of talented pitchers. Tyson Ross blossomed into an All-Star, and Ian Kennedy contributed with 200 solid innings. The team also has Andrew Cashner, who was brilliant when healthy. Rookie pitchers Jesse Hahn and Odrisamer Despaigne also pitched well for the Friars.
In order for the Padres to improve in 2015, they must upgrade their offense. The team simply cannot contend, while having the worst offense in baseball. This writer has developed a blueprint that could help the Padres compete in the National League West in 2015. First, let’s take a look at the budget:
Players
Guaranteed Money Owed In 2015:
OF Carlos Quentin
$8 million
RP Joaquin Benoit
$8 million
OF Cameron Maybin
$7 million
OF Seth Smith
$6 million
OF Will Venable
$4.25 million
SP Cory Luebke
$5.25 million
2B Jedd Gyorko
$500,000
Total
$39 million
The Padres have roughly $39 million committed to seven players in 2015. Carlos Quentin played in just 50 games in 2014, and his days as a regular outfielder are probably over. The Padres simply cannot depend on him to be a key contributor in 2015. Quentin has no real trade value, but the Padres could expose him to waivers to see if an American League team will bite and take on his contract. That scenario doesn’t seem plausible, however. The team could employ him as a bench bat, or simply pay him to go away.
Benoit was everything he was supposed to be in 2014, and eventually took over the closer’s role when the club moved Huston Street. He is slated to be the club’s closer in 2015, barring a trade.
San Diego has $11.25 million tied up in Cameron Maybin and Will Venable. Maybin battled injuries and inconsistency in 2014. His defense is still above-average in center, but he only homered once in 272 plate appearances. He lost playing time in September, and may have to battle for a starting gig next season, despite the large sum of money owed to him. Venable was voted the Padres’ team MVP in 2013, after he hit 22 homers. In 2014, Venable slumped badly, as he hit only 8 homers and slugged .325. The Padres could attempt to trade him; otherwise he will be a 4th outfielder in San Diego.
Seth Smith was the Padres best player throughout the 2014, as he led the Padres with a .367 on-base percentage. He slumped badly in the last two months of the season, hitting just .213. Despite the poor finish, Smith should be the Padres starting left fielder, especially against right-handed pitching.
Arbitration Eligible:
Player
Projected Salary (via Matt Swartz)
SP Ian Kennedy
$10.3 million
SP Tyson Ross
$5.7 million
SP Andrew Cashner
$4.3 million
SS Everth Cabrera
$2.9 million
RP Blaine Boyer
$1.0 million
C Rene Rivera
$1.3 million
RP Dale Thayer
$1.3 million
SS Alexi Amarista
$1.5 million
SP Joe Wieland
$500,000
San Diego has a rather pricey arbitration class that includes 3/5 of their starting rotation. Ian Kennedy, who is eligible for costless agency after the 2015 season, should be the Padres most expensive case, as his salary will likely end up around $10 million. Former Padre general manager Josh Byrnes talked about signing Kennedy to an extension, although current general manager A.J. Preller has not stated his plan for Kennedy. The Friars could deal Kennedy for a bat, although all current signs point to Kennedy remaining in San Diego.
Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner will each receive hefty raises in 2015. Ross earned his first All-Star nod in 2015, and is projected to make close to $6 million. Ross will still be under team control through the 2017 season. Cashner pitched like an ace in 2014, although his injury history is a bit of a concern. The Padres have talked about extending Cashner, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the Padres shopped him for a young, controllable bat.
Everth Cabrera had a miserable 2014 that was capped off by a DUI arrest. The Padres should be able to retain Cabrera for a reasonable rate and hope that he will improve on his awful 2014 performance. It would be unlikely to see Cabrera non-tendered, as there isn’t another viable option within the organization, unless the Padres brass has faith in Alexi Amarista as an everyday player.
Yonder Alonso presents another difficult decision for the San Diego brass. Alonso was once the centerpiece of the Mat Latos trade – the first baseman with gap power who was supposed to fit the mold of what an ideal Petco Park hitter should be. After a solid rookie season, Alonso has seen his slugging percentage decline each year, and he played in just 84 games in 2014, battling wrist and hand problems. Alonso’s salary will be relatively modest in 2015, but San Diego could seek an upgrade in the costless agent or trade markets. Another team seeking a first baseman could also call about Alonso as a buy-low trade candidate. It seems unlikely that the Padres would non-tender Alonso.
The Padres have two possible non-tender candidates: Eric Stults and Blaine Boyer. Stults pitched well down the stretch for the Padres (3.40 ERA in his final 13 starts) but the Padres have other internal options. Stults allowed 26 homers, and opposing hitters slugged .450 off of the veteran lefty. At a cost of nearly $5 million for 2015, San Diego could opt to a younger affordable option, such as Robbie Erlin or top prospect Matthew Wisler next season.
Boyer pitched well at times in 2014, but faded in September. $1 million or so is not a prohibitive cost, but the Padres could insert R.J. Alvarez or Leonel Campos in the bullpen and save a little money there.
Player Options And Costless Agents:
Player
Contract Status
RP Tim Stauffer
Eligible for costless agency
SP Josh Johnson
$4 million team option (declined)
Tim Stauffer has been a part of the Padres organization since being taken with the 3rd overall pick in 2003. Barring an unforeseen event, Stauffer will be with another organization in 2015. Stauffer pitched well out of the bullpen in ’14, but he may look for a chance to start in 2015. The Padres have younger, cheaper options in the bullpen, and he won’t be given the opportunity to start in San Diego.
San Diego decided to decline Johnson’s option for 2015, in hopes in reaching an agreement for less money. For what it is worth, Johnson has stated that he has ‘unfinished business’ in San Diego, so a reunion seems possible. However, it doesn’t make much financial sense for the Padres to commit any more guaranteed money to a pitcher coming off of his second Tommy John surgery.
Team Needs:
Offense, offense and some more offense. As stated earlier in the article, the Padres were the absolute worst offensive unit in Major League baseball. The Padres need to acquire 2-3 bats, in order to see a dramatic improvement in 2015. Here are a few trade candidates the Padres could consider:
Daniel Nava, OF, Boston: He is not a slugger or a household name by any means, but Nava gets on base. The Padres had a .292 on-base percentage last season, and Nava gets on-base at a .362 clip in his career. Nava played a little first, in addition to the outfield, so he brings a little versatility to the club. Nava spent a little time at AAA last year, but while in Boston, he still posted a solid triple-slash line of .270/.346/.361. The outfield in Boston is cramped, so prying Nava away won’t cost too much. He also would be under team-control for another three seasons.
Chris Carter, 1B, Houston: Carter has been shopped by Houston at various points the past few seasons, although he might be harder to pry after the way he finished 2014. Carter is essentially the new Adam Dunn – low batting average, terrible defense, a disgusting amount of power, but ungodly power. Carter slammed 37 homers in 2014, but he also struck out 182 times. He is a feast or famine type of hitter, but his power is something the Padres need. The Padres have young pitching to offer Houston in return, with a guy like R.J. Alvarez or Alex Torres perhaps being part of a two or three player package to Houston.
Ben Zobrist, infielder and outfielder, Tampa Bay: The Rays seem to be going in a different direction these days, and they may be looking to deal a guy like Zobrist. He can play anywhere, and would be a welcome veteran bat to the Padres lineup. He could play second, which would shift Jedd Gyorko to third base. Zobrist could also play right field for the Friars. Zobrist is set to be a costless agent after 2015 (assuming Tampa Bay picks up his option), so he might not be an ideal trade candidate.
Costless Agent Targets:
The costless agent fruit is extremely bare this winter, as there are very few impact bats. The Padres still have a few options to choose from, should they choose to open their pocketbooks. The Padres should have about $24 million to spend, if their payroll remains around $90 million. The ownership group has stated that they would be willing to raise the payroll higher, if they found the right players. Here are a few costless agents the Padres could target:
Yasmany Tomas, outfielder, Cuba: The Padres have scouting the 24-year-old Cuban outfielder extensively in the past month, which means the Padres are interested in signing him, or perhaps just doing their due diligence on keeping tabs on this winter’s most intriguing costless agent. The bidding on Tomas could reach $100 million, which would be uncharted territory for the small market Padres. Tomas would give the Padres a big-time power prospect, and his signing would help ignite an apathetic fanbase.
Adam LaRoche, first baseman, Washington: LaRoche is not a star by any means, but he is a solid power threat and a capable first baseman. LaRoche is bona fide power threat, as he has hit at least 20 homers in ten different seasons. At 34, he is no spring chicken, but a two-year, $24-28 million contract could lure the veteran to San Diego. He slugged 26 homers in 2014, and would likely be hitting cleanup in San Diego.
Nick Markakis, outfielder, Baltimore: Markakis is a solid, but unspectacular player. While his power has precipitously decreased in recent years, he posted a solid .342 on-base percentage in 2014 for Baltimore. Markakis could be too expensive – bidding could reach $15 million a year, but if the price is right, Markakis would be a great addition for San Diego.
Help From The Farm:
San Diego’s farm has been rated in the top ten by Baseball America, although they don’t have a prospect destined for super-stardom. Catcher Austin Hedges had a miserable year at the plate for Double-A San Antonio, but he is regarded as the best defensive catcher in the minors. Hedges could be ready by mid-2015, although the team still has Rene Rivera and Yasmani Grandal at the big league level.
Pitcher Matthew Wisler could win a job in the spring, and most scouts feel he has #2 starter potential. He got off to a brutal start in 2014 when promoted to Triple-A, but pitched well down the stretch. The team brought up Wisler in September to observe, but was not added to the 40-man roster. That could change this offseason.
Outlook: The Padres are not likely to be contenders in 2015, barring breakout performances and big-time acquisitions. The Padres added Yangervis Solarte at the trade deadline, and he could be a big contributor next season. San Diego also needs Jedd Gyorko, Cameron Maybin and Everth Cabrera to have rebound years if they expect to contend.
Yasmani Grandal could be the breakout performer in 2015. He hit well down the stretch, and led the team with 15 home runs. He played quite a bit at first base, but could still compete with Rene Rivera for playing time at the catcher position.
San Diego will be a team to look this winter. New general manager A.J. Preller will need to upgrade the offense, as well as find pieces for the future.
*Note: The Padres have designated SP Eric Stults for assignment. That move was made before this article was published.