If talent alone determined where and when a Major League free agent would sign, then starter James Shields would most likely already have a job for 2015 and beyond. However, salary demands and team projections also play huge roles from both the players' and the teams' vantage points -- not to mention the agents also involved. Such is the case with Shields. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that Shields may have demands that only a few teams can/will even consider, which could delay his signing well into the new year.
In the "Updates on Nine" section of his December 21 report, Cafardo says that Shields is looking for a contract for five years and worth approximately $110 million. Cafardo also says that the contract terms come by comparing Shields to current Philadelphia Phillies starter Cole Hamels. The Phillies' ace lefty has four years and $94 million guaranteed left on his contract plus a team/vesting option for 2019.
Cafardo then names the Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, and New York Yankees as the most likely possibilities for Shields to have his demands met.
Comparing Shields to Hamels (as Cafardo suggests) shows that Shields is, indeed, a very good pitcher, but he falls short of Hamels in most major categories. The two pitchers are close in age; Shields is 32, and Hamels turns 31 just after Christmas. Both have nine years of Major League service. Shields has a record of 114-90, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.77 FIP, and 26.7 total WAR. Hamels has compiled career totals of 108-83, 3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.48 FIP, and 40.4 total WAR. The difference is that Shields is in a position of negotiation whereas Hamels will not become a costless agent until at least 2019 barring anything unforeseen.
Shields is CBS Sports.com's #3 costless agent pitcher behind only Max Scherzer and Jon Lester. Many pitchers, position players, and teams waited for Lester to sign to see what the market would hold. Lester received six years and $155 million from the Chicago Cubs, and the yet unsigned Scherzer may try to get $200 million. His final contract may depend heavily on what Shields gets.
Today's market makes that five-year, $110-million demand less surprising even for a pitcher who has had a very solid career but whom many also feel has not quite lived up to his nickname of "Big Game." After a season in which he was 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA for the Kansas City Royals, Shields faltered mightily in the 2014 postseason (1-2, 6.12 ERA in five games). He did pitch very well in his win over the Los Angeles Angels (two runs in six innings) in the ALDS, but he was unimpressive in his four other postseason starts. Still, he came up very big during the regular season, and the Royals would not have even sniffed the postseason without his contributions.
Shields will most likely get what he wants. With the way MLB money flies today, players understandably overprice themselves, and so many get what they want or even more. Players do not sell themselves short, and neither should Shields. At age 32, he has this one last shot at such a lucrative deal. Boston, San Francisco, and New York all have the money, and all want a solid starting pitcher. It may take a while for a final decision to come out, but expect Shields to get that five-year, $110-million contract or at least something close. Then, sit back and look the fun as Scherzer makes his own moves.