The Miami Marlins took a big hit last year when they lost pitching phenom Jose Fernandez to Tommy John surgery early last season, but they still proved they can play at a good level. By the end of the season, the Marlins also lost Giancarlo Stanton to injury and finished under .500. With Stanton now healthy coming into 2015 and Fernandez on pace to come back mid-season, there is hope for the fish. With all this said about the two superstars the organization has produced, the Marlins have also made some moves to bolster their roster and they have a chance to win now it seems.
Notable additions and subtractions
Additions
- Mat Latos
- Dee Gordon
- Martin Prado
- Michael Morse
- Dan Haren
- Ichiro Suzuki
- David Phelps
- Aaron Crow
- Jhonathan Solano
- Scott Sizemore
- Miguel Rojas
- Reid Brignac
- Kenny Wilson
- Don Kelly
- Cole Gillespie
- Vinny Rottino
- Tyler Colvin
- Andre Rienzo
- Chris Narveson
- Pat Misch
- Kendry Flores
- Andrew McKirahan
- Preston Claiborne
- Nick Masset
- Vin Mazzaro
- Pat Urkfitz
- Ryan Chaffee
Subtractions
- Casey McGehee
- Garrett Jones
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Anthony DeSclafani
- Andrew Heaney
- Dan Jennings
- Chris Hatcher
- Rob Brantley
- Enrique Hernandez
- Kyle Jensen
- Jordany Valdespin
- Edgar Olmos
- Reid Redman
- Brian Flynn
- Austin Barnes
- Chad Wallach
- Domingo German
- Arquimedes Caminero
Biggest Weakness – Short Stop
Adeiny Hechavarria should not be an MLB shortstop. This has gone on for a bit too long at this point as he has manned the position ever since Hanley Ramirez left. He is a huge drop off there. Usually when a player hits as one of the worst hitters in the league, there is some defensive upside to talk about -- but not in this case. According to defensive metrics, Hechavarria is a below-average defender at the position and has been every year so far at the MLB level. This guy can’t hit or field, and he still appears to be the front runner for the starting job at shortstop yet again. If the Marlins want to win right now with this team, shortstop should be their top of upgrade priority list as there are many players in bench roles on other teams who would be much better than Hechavarria.
Biggest Strength – Strong lineup anchored by Giancarlo Stanton
When a team has the best hitter in a generation, good things are bound to happen offensively. Giancarlo Stanton is still just 25 years old, and he has been crushing baseballs at the MLB level for five years now. He is probably the best power hitter in the league -- hands down -- right now and is a great overall hitter. He is athletic enough to have swiped 13 bags last year. Stanton has belted 154 total home runs so far in his career, which is still young and has many years left it. Now that the Marlins have picked up Dee Gordon to lead off, this should mean a lot more runs scored for the team. In addition, the Marlins added some lineup protection for Stanton in Michael Morse, who should be a good presence hitting in the #4 spot right behind Stanton. Miami still has Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich in this lineup; both grew out of their farm system, and both are very good, productive players.
Something to keep an eye on – MLB ready pitching prospects
The Marlins are blessed yet again with a pool of promising young pitchers just about ready to make the jump up to the big league level when their number gets called. Amongst the guys ready to come up as soon as this season are Justin Nicolino, Jose Urena and Adam Conley. All three of these guys show great upside and are good enough collectively to make the organization comfortable enough to deal away guys like Andrew Heaney and Anthony DeSclafani this off-season. Something that is a bit unusual about the Marlins is that it seems like their pitchers aren’t the dominant strike out pitchers that stats guys like myself like to see, but they still get the job done. The same can be said about Nicolino and Jose Urena, so those guys probably profile to have numbers that look a little more like Henderson Alvarez and Jarred Cosart. Adam Conley looks like he could be one of the exceptions who gets a lot of outs through the way of the k. Whatever direction the Marlins want to go with their call ups, they are set depth wise with their starting pitchers.
Potential Lineup - * = Lefty, ^ = Switch hitter
- Dee Gordon – 2B*
- Christian Yelich – LF*
- Giancarlo Stanton – RF
- Michael Morse – 1B
- Marcell Ozuna – CF
- Martin Prado – 3B
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia – C^
- Adeiny Hechavarria – SS
Potential Bench
- Jeff Mathis
- Justin Bour*
- Donovan Solano
- Jeff Baker
- Ichiro Suzuki*
Potential Rotation - * = Lefty
- Mat Latos
- Jarred Cosart
- Henderson Alvarez
- Dan Haren
- Tom Koehler
Potential Bullpen
- Steve Cishek – Closer
- AJ Ramos
- Mike Dunn*
- Bryan Morris
- Aaron Crow
- Brad Hand*
- David Phelps
Starting season on DL
Jose Fernandez
Fantasy Bargain – Steve Cishek
Owners should not pay too much for relief pitchers, but when it comes to Cishek, this will probably be the last season he will fall this late in drafts. He appears to be an elite relief ace at this point in his career. His percentage numbers look great along with his FIP, which has stayed in the low 2 range each of the past few seasons. On top of that, his walk rate continues to drop while his strike out rate is trending upwards, topping out at 11.5 k’s per 9 innings last season. He has had two straight seasons with at least 34 saves, and he shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his role if he continues to be as good as I think he will be. He will get even more opportunities if the team is better this year. Owners should not be afraid of drafting Cishek because he appears to be for real.
Overvalued fantasy player – Dee Gordon
Dee Gordon had an amazing first half of 2014 and was on pace to steal 100 bases for part of the season only to come up short in the second half by a long shot. When drafting him onto a fantasy team, an owner is looking for one thing: stolen bases. He does hold value for this stat category, but keep in mind that it is one of the more over-valued categories in fantasy. Gordon finished last season with a .326 on base percentage, and that is a number that should keep his stolen base numbers down to probably below 50 this year.
There is no reason to take a guy like Gordon in the top 100 overall players when there is a guy like Rajai Davis, who will come close to matching his numbers being drafted outside of the top 200. Gordon is a one-category fantasy contributor, and he runs the risk of hurting a fantasy pwner in the average category as he has had tendencies to go through bad hitting droughts. It’s worth waiting and letting someone else see if he pans out in Miami this year.
Conclusion/Prediction
The Marlins happen to play in a division with the Washington Nationals, and that doesn’t bode well for their ability to take the division. However, the Marlins should be better this year, and a healthy version of both Stanton and Fernandez by the time the season comes to an end might mean a wild card birth isn’t out of the question. This looks like a slightly better than an average team. Expect them to win approximately 84 games and finish in second place in the N.L. East just ahead of the Mets.
Tyler interviewed Grant Kingery @TheGK7 on the radio about the Marlins. See what Kingery had to say.
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