Finally, we get to talk about the second half of the 5x5 league since up until this point, all we have been able to cover is the offensive side. Starting pitchers are going to make the biggest impact for teams in ERA, WHIP, K’s and wins, and there is a variety of pitchers to help owners get the stats they need. The players that are on the top of this list are here for a reason: they really are the most dominant forces in fantasy and in real life for that matter. Barring injury, fantasy owners will enjoy the numbers they throw up each week, and these top-tier pitchers will likely be among the only players owners will never have to touch.
Draft strategy for pitchers varies wildly depending on who discusses it. It is perfectly acceptable, and -- in fact -- better to pass on the higher-up pitchers for hitting. This strategy is based on the fact that there are plenty of strong and usable pitchers late in the draft while hitters just do not last as long and owners put more value on hitting for that reason.
Those who read the Mock Draft article written a few weeks back will note that the team did not get a pitcher until the sixth round and still got both Alex Cobb and Juilo Teheran, two very strong and highly thought of pitchers. While owners should always follow the golden rule of take the best player available, holding off on pitching is not going to hurt much, so owners should consider it. The last thing to note when drafting a pitcher is not to go off wins since wins are almost impossible to predict.
Clayton Kershaw
2015 Prediction: ERA-1.90, WHIP-0.90, K-265, W-22, S-0
What can we say about Kershaw that has not been said before? He has earned the title of best pitcher in baseball, and last year he just cemented that for owners. Kershaw is easily the #1 fantasy pitcher, and he is the one pitcher that owners should consider drafting even if they plan on holding off on pitchers. If any reader needs more than what he did in 2014 to convince him that Kershaw is amazing, then please seek it.
Felix Hernandez
2015 Prediction: ERA- 2.40, WHIP-1.05, K-231, W-15, S-0
Debatably, Hernandez is the second-best pitcher in baseball, and that also makes him debatably the second-best pitcher in fantasy as well. While it took Hernandez a few years to finally live up to the hype of his nickname, King Felix, owners are happy to have him on the roster now. 2014 was a phenomenal season for Hernandez, who ended the season with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP, both of which are career bests for him. He also lowered his BB/9 to 1.75. This is a great sign because it continues the trend he has been having with his BB/9 since 2011. The strikeout rate was about average for him, a hair shy of 9.50, while he limited batters to a career-best .193 batting average. There is a lot to like here considering he is only 28 and has a chance to get even better.
Madison Bumgarner
2015 Prediction: ERA- 2.80, WHIP-1.05, K- 221, W-15, S-0
Bumgarner was one of the more overlooked elite-tier pitchers in baseball for 2015 -- but nonetheless an elite pitcher. Bumgarner’s 2014 was a improvement for his BB/9, lowering it to 1.78, and his K/9, which only marginally improved but went up ten points -- still an improvement. He also stayed pretty solid in batting average against holding opponents to a .235 average. However, looking at his BABIP, which had been trending down it seems that he got some bad luck, and that BAA should have been lower. Really, the only knock to give to Bumgarner is the team because the Giants do not look like the World Series champs that they are, and that could affect some of the value of Bumgarner. Still, he is a pitcher to own, but his team will limit his wins and could even increase his ERA and WHIP.
Max Scherzer
2015 Prediction: ERA- 3.00, WHIP-1.20, K-259, W-20, S-0
Scherzer is going to love playing for a team that actually has a bullpen and a defense to back him up. The strikeout king the for the past few leaves a team that let him have a BABIP of .315, eleven points higher than his career BABIP, to a team that has one of the most solid infield defenses in the Majors or at least on paper. The change of teams also comes with the advantage of allowing him to beat up on teams like the Phillies and the Braves a lot during the 2015 season. For the most part, owners can expect the norms from Scherzer and, barring injury, he should go on to have his forth-straight season of 230+ strikeouts.
David Price
2015 Prediction: ERA-3.20, WHIP-1.05, K-239, W-18, S-
David Price seems to bounce around fantasy rankings a lot. Personal story here: As a sixth-round draftee three years ago, Price ended up winning the Cy Young award. Price has loads of upside, and 2014 showed improvement in his K/9, something owners love seeing, and, more importantly, stability in his BB/9 that was sitting around 2.50 only three years ago. Much like Bumgarner, there will be bigger issue with his team than him since the Tigers' defense is far below league average in many areas. Again, much like Bumgarner, his talent alone will adjust and make up for that lack of defense, but at the same time it could end up limiting his ceiling.
Corey Kluber
2015 Prediction: ERA-2.80, WHIP-1.20, K-230, W-19, S-0
The newcomer to the list of top pitchers Kluber, who turned a career year into a Cy Young season, and he could do it again. Kluber was a top talent in the Indians system, and we can see why after 2014. Kluber did two very important things very well: limiting the walks to 1.95 per nine innings and limiting opponents' average to .235. The big problem with Kluber is that those strikeouts are likely coming down to earth in 2015. He will likely regress back to his career average near 9.27, not the monster 10.27 we saw in 2014. Expect regression and keep an eye on him since while he has the talent and ability to be an elite pitcher, he has pitched at that level only one year.
Chris Sale
2015 Prediction: ERA-2.10, WHIP-1.00, K-260, W-15, S-0
Why Chris Sale? Why must he constantly get hurt and make it so hard to trust him for long periods of time? Sale easily should have been one of the top three for 2015, and he was, but he got himself hurt…AGAIN! While he is not expected to miss significant time, he will miss time, and owners need to take that into account during the draft and during the season. When healthy, he rivals Kershaw and Hernandez as one of the elites in the game; his numbers validate that claim. Much like with Kershaw, there is not much else to say other than Sale is an elite pitcher with a very brittle body.
Jon Lester
2015 Prediction: ERA-3.20, WHIP-1.20, K-220, W-14, S-0
Lester continues a few trends on this list: another new team, another career year, and another pitcher whose team will likely limit his fantasy value. Lester has been a pretty consistent pitcher throughout his career, and coming off 2014, his value went through the roof. After free agency, though, owners were split in half; one side saw that this was a good move for his future, and the other half winced at the team he has at the present.
The Cubs are not going to be World Series-bound this year or even next year, but the future is bright, so Lester's choice to go to a very hitter-friendly park is up in the air still. As for Lester himself, expect regression in all areas since he is going to a team with a worse defense and offense. Therefore, his wins, ERA, and WHIP are going to take a hit. Lester will still be a very solid option, but do not expect a repeat of 2014.
Steven Strasburg
2015 Prediction: ERA-3.15, WHIP-1.15, K-240, W-17, S-0
Strausburg had a very Miguel Cabrera-like season in 2014. It was still a very good season but did not line up with the expectations we had set for the young star. Strasburg has some of the best strikeout potential in baseball when healthy, and while 2014 was technically a “down” year for his strikeouts, he still had a K/9 of 10.13, so owners did not have much to complain about. In fact, 2014 actually saw one of the best signs for Strasburg's moving forward: a reduced BB/9 of 1.80 --50 points lower than his career total. On the flip side, Strasburg got hit harder than normal, allowing a .241 average agains,t which is a 20-point gain. If he can stay healthy, owners could expect a nice bounce back from Strasburg, and we could see his best season yet.
Johnny Cueto
2015 Prediction: ERA-2.30, WHIP-1.00, K-190, W-14, S-0
There seems to be a running theme of pitchers that will likely have their teams hurt them in some area, and Cueto is no different. While he never developed into that major strikeout pitcher we all hoped for, the accuracy he developed has more than made up for it with solid ERA’s and WHIP’s for the past two years. On the note of strikeouts, there is a positive change coming since he has been able to raise his K/9 for four straight seasons while lowering his total walks allowed as well. If he can keep the accuracy up, then his only real problem area for owners will be the lack of wins Cueto could get. Owners, though, should not be fishing for wins anyways.